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FanDuel Pitching Primer: Monday 7/24/23

Scott Edwards Jr.
Scott Edwards Jr.@ScottEdwardsJr

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When building a daily fantasy baseball lineup on FanDuel, nailing your pitcher is crucial to succeeding in any contest. Strikeouts are king -- although, innings-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

With a pitcher serving as the backbone of your lineup, we don't want to mess around. Let's take a look at some of the top pitcher options and values, as well as some honorable mentions for today's main DFS slate on FanDuel.

Statistics are via FanGraphs

Top Options

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners ($10,800)

Luis Castillo is an ace for the Seattle Mariners and should be for DFS lineups today.

Castillo has been one of baseball's best in 2023, following up his 2022 campaign in a fitting fashion. After signing a 5-year, $108 million deal to remain with the Mariners, they couldn't have asked for much more from him than what his output has been. The Seattle starter is sporting a 3.58 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), the 12th-best among starters.

He's also punching out hitters at an elite rate once again, improving his 27.2% strikeout rate from last season to a slightly improved 27.7%. His 15.4% swinging-strike rate is his best since 2020 when he had the same mark.

This should all add to some big numbers for lineups, as he should take advantage of the free-swinging Minnesota Twins. There's no team that strikes out as much as the Twins do (27.0% rate), and it's been that way pretty much all season. They do pack a punch offensively with 133 home runs on the year, but as long as Castillo can keep the ball out of the air, he's easily a top option for a reason.

The Twins have the third-worst implied total on the day, sitting at 3.90, which plays even more to a potentially big day for Castillo.

numberFire model projects the right-handed starter for 34.2 FanDuel points, the slate's second-highest mark.

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres ($10,000)

Few in baseball have been as good as Yu Darvish over his last few starts, and he'll look to continue the stretch of success today.

The San Diego Padres starter has been impressive through three starts in July. Over 17 innings, Darvish has struck out 20 and only allowed four earned runs in that time. His stats on the season showcase that it hasn't been this strong overall, but he's put together a better year than the 4.36 ERA illustrates.

Darvish has a 3.57 expected ERA (xERA) and a 3.91 SIERA. The strikeout rate is still healthy for the righty at 25.9%, which is actually higher than it was a season ago.

The Pittsburgh Pirates is in the middle of the pack (13th) when it comes to strikeout rate as a lineup (23.3%) and is even lower as an offensive unit when it comes to weighted on-base average (wOBA), ranking 24th in the league (.305).

Pittsburgh has the worst implied total out of any team today (3.43), as well.

numberFire's model has Darvish as the top performer with a huge 38.8 FanDuel points projected.

Mid Tier Option

Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians ($9,400)

As with any season, rookie starters have been pretty hit-or-miss, but few have been as consistently good as Logan Allen.

Allen has had what can be called a successful first season with the Cleveland Guardians thus far through his first 13 MLB starts. Allen has a 24.3% strikeout rate through those games, and his 3.41 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 4.15 SIERA are numbers that he should only build off of as time continues on.

A matchup with the Kansas City Royals makes Allen an interesting option on the slate, as it'd allow DFS players to save some dough on their starter while potentially getting some top numbers that the likes of Castillo and Darvish are projected for.

Kansas City has a .292 wOBA, the second-worst in the Majors, and they strike out at a 24.3% rate, the seventh-highest. To make it even worse, they only have 89 home runs on the year, so the long ball isn't something to be worry about. The Royals have an implied total of 3.70, the second-worst on the day

The Guardians starter is projected for 30.5 points, per numberFire.

Value Play

Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins ($8,400)

A rinse and repeat from last week: Kenta Maeda deserves your respect.

Sometimes baseball can be an unfair game. Players can be outperforming others who get far more credit because certain statistics look better than is actually true. That can be said about Maeda, who has had a good season for the Minnesota Twins even if he has a 5.10 ERA to show for it.

From behind the curtain, Maeda has been pretty solid with a dazzling 28.6% strikeout rate to lead off -- that's higher than all other pitchers featured in the primer. The Twins' starter also has a 3.61 SIERA and 3.31 FIP. He's also coming off a start where he struck out nine while only allowing two earned runs. As I said, he deserves some respect.

His value also plays here against the Seattle Mariners, the same team that he just put up those nine strikeouts. Maeda had their number already and can easily do it again. Seattle strikes out more than everyone in the league except for the Twins at a 26.0% rate.

It'll be hard to pass up any of the other top options for Maeda today, but he is projected a healthy 28.0 FanDuel points by numberFire.

Honorable Mentions

Jose Berrios ($9,800): Most days, Berrios would be considered a mid-tier option at the very least, but a matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers leads us to advise against starting the Toronto Blue Jays hurler. The righty has a 4.05 SIERA and 3.82 FIP to go along with a healthy 23.4 strikeout rate -- all respectable marks. Los Angeles does strike out a good bit (22.4%), but they have one of baseball's best offense, as their .340 wOBA ranks third and their 162 home runs ranks second. Berrios is good but not worth the risk.

Jon Gray ($8,800): Gray may have a 3.31 ERA (a career-best), but he hasn't been as good as the ERA says this year. The Texas Rangers starter has his worst SIERA since 2020 at 4.66, and he has a tough matchup against the Houston Astros. He doesn't get big strikeout numbers, either (19.8% rate), so while Gray is projected for 27.8 FanDuel points, he's not an option we'd pick over some of the other options highlighted.

Patrick Corbin ($7,600): Corbin hasn't been much of an option over the last few seasons, let alone 2023, but his past two starts are worth paying attention to. He's had six strikeouts apiece and only allowed four earned over 12 1/3 innings. We're not saying that he's going to keep that up, as he's been hit around plenty this year, but a matchup with the weak Colorado Rockies offense outside of Coors Field is at the very least worth noting. Corbin is the lowest-salaried option on the slate worth even a slight consideration.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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