FanDuel Pitching Primer: Friday 8/25/23

When building a daily fantasy baseball lineup on FanDuel, nailing your pitcher is crucial to succeeding in any contest. Strikeouts are king -- although, innings-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

With a pitcher serving as the backbone of your lineup, we don't want to mess around. Let's take a look at some of the top pitcher options and values, as well as some honorable mentions for today's main DFS slate on FanDuel, beginning at 7:05 p.m. (EST).

All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Top Option

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves ($12,000)

Spencer Strider is starting tonight which means, regardless of the incredibly high salary, he's our top option.

Even in a slate chock-full of quality arms, Strider is that guy.

Tonight he takes on the San Francisco Giants, baseball's fourth-lowest scoring offense this month and a team Strider put 61 FanDuel points on just last week.

In August, the Giants have struck out at the eighth-highest clip (25.2%) and sit in the bottom three in both wOBA (.286) and ISO (.116). They're not a lineup we're afraid of -- especially at the 10th-friendliest ballpark to pitchers.

The repeat matchup is a little concerning, but Strider is on an absolute tear right now. He's racked up 45+ FanDuel points in 9 of his last 11 outings, generating a 36.9% strikeout rate and a 19.3% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) over that span.

Strider has had a few blow-ups, but there is no one else on the slate with his upside.

numberFire projects Strider for 36.9 FanDuel points -- the highest projection of the night. That, coupled with the Giants' minuscule 3.47 implied team total, is the final validation we need to say Strider is worth every bit of his monstrous salary.

He stands alone as the clear top pitching option.

Top Options Not Named Spencer

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox ($9,400)

The Dylan Cease ride has been an absolute roller coaster in 2023, but he's got the upside and salary to rival Strider -- at least from a value standpoint.

Last year's Cy Young runner-up may sport a 4.50 ERA, but he's gotten a bit unlucky. Cease's skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is down a tick at 4.19, and he's allowing a .326 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Cease still sports above-average strikeout numbers (26.7% K rate; 13.7% SwStr%), but his walk rate (10.3%) remains concerningly high.

Though he's given up five-plus runs in two of his last four starts, both of those came on the road against the Texas Rangers and then at Coors Field. In his two previous home starts, Cease has allowed just 6 hits and 2 runs, striking out 13.

He'll get arguably his easiest home matchup of the season tonight, the Oakland Athletics.

The A's have been horrendous all season and this month is now different, averaging the second-fewest runs per game (3.52) this month. They've amassed the seventh-highest SwStr% (12.5%) over that span and have struggled against righties all season. In that split, they've struck out at the third-highest clip (25.1%) while registering the second-lowest wOBA (.292).

All of that bodes well for Cease, who does have the capacity for monster strikeout nights. If you don't want to pony up $12,000 for Strider but still want strikeout upside, Cease and his 34.3-point projection should suffice.

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres ($9,100)

With a 36.1-point projection via numberFire, Yu Darvish is one of the only hurlers within striking distance of Strider, and you can get him at a fraction of the salary.

Darvish doesn't have a cakewalk tonight, but a date with the Milwaukee Brewers is far from frightening.

Though the Brewers have averaged the seventh-most runs per game (5.40) this month, they slot in all the way down at 18th in wOBA (.313) and 26th in ISO (.147) over that span. In general, they've been pretty uninspiring against righties this season, posting the sixth-lowest wOBA (.306) and a 23.1% strikeout rate in that split.

As for Darvish, he's taken a step back this season for sure, boasting the highest ERA (4.35) and lowest strikeout rate (24.9%) of his career. Still, a 4.02 SIERA with that strikeout rate isn't bad by any means. A lot of his struggles can be attributed to bad luck considering he's allowing a career-worst .316 BABIP. His Baseball Savant page is still pretty full with red, and he's trending in the right direction, upping his strikeout rate (24.6%) and cutting his ERA (3.42) since the All-Star break in spite of a continually high BABIP (.328).

Like with Cease, our goal in targetting Darvish instead of Strider is to find similar upside at a fraction of the salary, allocating the near-$3,000 saved with picking Darvish toward our hitters.

Darvish certainly has upside, checking in with four 50-point games this season. I still want the security that Strider provides, but if you like the hitters tonight and still want a chance to compete with all of the Strider entries, Darvish should be among your top candidates.

Value Plays

Dane Dunning, Texas Rangers ($8,000)

Is Dane Dunning the truth?

No, probably not.

But, he's the ultimate high-upside value play given his matchup with the Minnesota Twins.

Thrice in his last 10 outings, Dunning has scored at least 58 FanDuel points. At his measly salary, a 58-point outing is a potential contest-winner.

All three of those starts have one thing in common: double-digit strikeouts.

He's only running an 18.7% strikeout rate for the season, but when he's on, he's on. He sat down 10 against the Tigers at the end of June, 11 against the White Sox at the beginning of August, and 12 against the Giants just 12 days ago.

Now, he faces off against a Twins team that's struck out at the highest rate against righties this season (27.7%) and has the sixth-highest CSW% (28.8%) overall this month.

There is certainly some risk involved here. The Twins, for as much as they strikeout, have boasted the seventh-highest wOBA (.341) and and fifth-highest ISO (.206) this month, culminating in 4.67 runs per game.

Dunning, meanwhile, has been prone to blow-ups, but we're swinging for the upside here.

In this salary range and with the strikeout potential here, no one has as much upside as Dane Dunning tonight.

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks ($7,500)

Listen, Brandon Pfaadt clearly wasn't as good as people hyped him up to be, but he also wasn't as bad as his early performances indicated.

This month, Pfaadt has settled somewhere in the middle. Through four August starts, Pfaadt is sporting a .296 ERA and a 25.8% strikeout rate. His 29.0% called+plus swinging strike rate (CSW%) is actually higher than Arizona ace Zac Gallen's (25.6%) over that span, so he's clearly doing something right.

That something right is his sweeper -- far and away his best pitch and one that's usage has jumped into the 30% range for usage this month after settling in the teens and low 20s earlier in the year. Opposing hitters are batting just .150 against the sweeper this season, and he's generated a 31.2% whiff rate with it.

I have a hunch that usage should only continue to climb tonight against the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincy has struggled to a .308 wOBA this month, striking out at the second-highest clip (28.4%) and posting the second-highest CSW% (30.1%) in the league.

Merrill Kelly dropped a 12-strikeout, 61-point gem on the Reds just last night. While you can't expect that strong of an outing from Pfaadt, he's eclipsed 32 points in three of his last four starts and makes for a great value play against a struggling Cincinnati lineup.

Honorable Mentions

Kodai Senga ($10,900) has pitched well lately and gets a soft matchup with the depleted Los Angeles Angels, but at his salary, I'd rather just throw in a little more to secure Strider's services. The same goes for Lance Lynn ($10,100) and Brandon Woodruff ($10,000). Basically, if you're going to allocate a majority of your cap on a pitcher, I'd rather spend up and get Strider.

Logan Webb ($9,900), Mitch Keller ($9,700), and Sonny Gray ($9,500) all have brutal matchups against top offenses, and the same logic regarding Strider still applies here. Tanner Bibee ($9,800) has less of a scary matchup, but the Toronto Blue Jays have enough firepower to make me stay away from him at his salary.

Brady Singer ($8,400) gives up a terrifying amount of hard-hit balls (49.0%) and the Seattle Mariners have been red-hot, but they're still striking out the 10th-highest rate (24.5%) this month. Singer got shelled in his previous start but had averaged 39.2 FanDuel points in his prior six outings. He's worth a flier in larger tournaments.

My favorite dart throw is Cole Irvin ($6,200). He's almost half the salary of the most-rostered pitcher (Strider), has pitched well in his prior two starts (1 run allowed and 9 strikeouts in 10 innings), and has a dream matchup tonight. The Colorado Rockies have struck out at a 29.0% clip and posted a .305 this month, making Irvin a fun option to pair with star-studded hitters.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.