FanDuel Pitching Primer: Friday 8/18/23

When building a daily fantasy baseball lineup on FanDuel, nailing your pitcher is crucial to succeeding in any contest. Strikeouts are king -- although, innings-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

With a pitcher serving as the backbone of your lineup, we don't want to mess around. Let's take a look at some of the top pitcher options and values, as well as some honorable mentions for Tuesday's main DFS slate on FanDuel, beginning at 7:05 p.m. (EST).

All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Top Options

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves ($11,500)

It's Spencer Strider's world and we're just living in it.

His salary is a jaw-dropper, but even at $11,500m the Atlanta Braves ace is the top pitching option of the slate -- no ifs, ands, or buts about it.

While Strider's stuff alone is worthy of nailing him to the top spot, it's tonight's matchup that really has me excited to invest in him.

Strider and the Braves host the San Francisco Giants -- a normally solid offense that has gone ice-cold over the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, the Giants have far and away the lowest wOBA (.273) in baseball. While some of that can be attributed to an unlucky .261 BABIP, they simply aren't hitting the ball hard enough to threaten opposing pitchers.

Over the second half of the year, San Francisco ranks 27th in hard-hit rate (35.6%) and 21st in barrel rate (6.9%) while generating ground balls at the sixth-highest rate (43.7%). All of that's happening when they actually hit the ball -- something they've struggled with, as well. In that same time period, the Giants have a 25.2% strikeout rate, the seventh-highest in the MLB.

So, while the Giants had been a solid lineup against righties for the majority of the season, their .276 wOBA in that split over the last month has dropped them down to 20th, at just .311 for the season. Their strikeout rate, on the other hand, has crept up to 24.6% against righties -- the fifth-highest mark in the league.

Typically, optimistic Giants backers can blame their monstrous home ballpark for their offensive woes but San Francisco actually has a lowered road wOBA (.265) than home wOBA (.283) since the All-Star break.

All of this bodes incredibly well for Strider, against whom the Giants' implied team total of 3.73 slots in as the third-lowest of the slate.

Though Strider's 3.75 ERA looks ugly on paper, his underlying numbers still suggest he's one of the best pitchers in baseball. His skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) of 2.77 leads the league. As does his 37.9% strikeout rate. In spite of how hard he throws, Strider doesn't allow much hard contact either, giving up the fourth-lowest hard-hit rate (34.4%) in baseball.

Strider has struggled somewhat with consistency, but with a 38.9-point numberFire projection and 45-point floor in 8 of his last 10 outings, you'll be hard-pressed to find someone with a better package than Atlanta's young ace. He's the top pitching option of the night.

Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins ($10,800)

Remember when I said Spencer Strider was the top pitcher of the night, bar none?

Well, he still is. Strider is H-I-M, him.

But Pablo Lopez is pretty good, too, and he gets a mouth-watering matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

If you just glance at Lopez's 3.66 ERA, you may be wondering what his $10,800 salary is all about.

Like Strider, Lopez has stellar underlying numbers. His 3.32 SIERA ranks fourth across all of baseball while his 30.0% strikeout rate ranks fifth. He does an excellent job limiting hard contact, as well, ranking in the top 20 in both barrel rate (7.2%) and hard-hit rate (36.3%).

Keeping hard contact to a minimum while striking hitters out at one of the best clips in the league is a pretty good recipe for fantasy success. Lopez has been one of the most consistent pitchers in DFS, averaging 38.0 FanDuel points per game while hitting the 40-point threshold in 15 of his 24 starts, including each of the last four.

Having allowed just a single run across his last 19 innings, Lopez should feast against a struggling Pirates lineup.

Since the All-Star break, Pittsburgh has averaged just 4.06 runs per game, ranking 20th in wOBA (.308) and 19th in ISO (.167) while striking out at the sixth-highest clip (25.6%). In general, the Pirates have been unimpressive against righties this season, slotting in at No. 22 in wOBA (.307) and boasting the ninth-highest strikeout rate (23.9%).

As a result, Pittsburgh has the lowest implied team total of the slate -- all the way down at 3.51 runs.

numberFire projects Lopez for 39.4 FanDuel points tonight -- 0.5 more than Strider -- making him the highest-projected pitcher of the slate. Strider is the safer option between the two, but if you're looking to save some of your salary cap but still want a top option, Lopez more than fits the bill.

Value Plays

Seth Lugo, San Diego Padres ($8,800)

Seth Lugo has become a staple on the values portion of the pitching primer.

With a home date with the ice-cold Arizona Diamondbacks on deck, he headlines that section again tonight.

After lighting the league on fire over the first half of the year, the Diamondbacks have slumped over the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Arizona sits in the bottom half of the league in wOBA (.311), wRC+ (92), and hard-hit rate (37.8%). Though they still aren't striking out much (20.5% over their last 31 games), the fact that they've averaged the seventh-fewest runs per game (4.00) makes them a viable matchup to target.

They're an especially intriguing matchup for a pitcher as consistently solid as Lugo.

For the season, Lugo sports a 3.83 SIERA and 23.2% strikeout rate. Though the strikeouts come and go (just 6 in his previous two starts but 17 in the two prior), at his core Lugo is a groundball pitcher. His 46.3% groundball rate is a top-25 mark league wide -- as is his 32.1% flyball rate.

Lugo does allow a fair amount of hard contact, giving up a 42.2% hard-hit rate and a 9.1% barrel rate. While he doesn't give up flyballs very often, when he does, it can get ugly quickly. His 15.2% HR/FB rate is the 21st-highest among pitchers with at least 90 innings of work.

There is a certain degree of risk with Lugo given his shaky hard contact numbers. The fact that Arizona just faced Lugo last weekend only softens his case tonight. However, given the Diamondbacks' struggle to get the ball in the air (35.0% flyball rate since the break) and the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, I like his chances.

numberFire actually has Lugo projected for the third-most FanDuel points of any pitcher tonight -- all the way up at 33.3. If you're looking for value on a night chock-full of high-salaried arms, Lugo is worth consideration.

Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox ($7,400)

If you're looking for pure upside, there isn't a pitcher with as high of a ceiling and a salary as low as Michael Kopech.

The Chicago White Sox righty has flip-flopped between looking like an ace and an early retiree this season. It's been more of the latter lately, but with a pair of 58-point outings under his belt this season, he certainly has that slate-winning potential if he gets the right matchup.

Perhaps, that matchup is today against the Colorado Rockies.

The Rockies have hit right-handed pitchers well at home this season; there's no sugar-coating it. In that split, they rank seventh in wOBA (.337) and third in hard contact rate (37.5%).

That said, they've actually been below-average in the power department, boasting a merely-average 11.7% HR/FB rate and .169 ISO at home against righties. They've also struck out at the ninth-highest clip (22.6%) in that split -- a number that's risen dramatically over the second half of the season.

See, that's what has me intrigued about Kopech tonight. His 5.19 SIERA and 14.5% walk rate aren't numbers I'm targeting, and his 48.1% flyball rate (seventh-highest in the MLB) showing up at Coors Field is positively terrifying. Still, a 23.4% strikeout rate and 10.5% swinging-strike rate (SwStr%) give him upside -- especially in this matchup.

The Rockies have been an offensive trainwreck since the break.

They've not only posted the fifth-lowest wOBA (.300) over that span but lead the league by a considerable margin with a 29.2% strikeout rate. That's what we're chasing tonight. Kopech has five games with nine-plus strikeouts this season -- during which he's averaged 45.2 FanDuel points per game.

Kopech is on the road at Coors and has eclipsed 25 FanDuel points just once since June 11th. He is the furthest thing from a sure thing you can get.

However...

On a night with two overwhelming top options who should dominate roster rates, Kopech is a viable zag who could absolutely turn in a monster performance -- or completely flame out. It's a calculated risk not everyone will be able to stomach, but at his $7,400 salary and a general lack of quality, low-salary options on the board, Kopech is a real value play tonight.

Honorable Mentions

There's no shortage of high-salary arms tonight, with eight pitchers garnering at least a $9,000 salary.

Let's run through those that didn't make the cut.

Brandon Woodruff ($10,500) and Sandy Alcantara ($10,000) are both certified aces with brutal road matchups tonight. Woodruff gets the Texas Rangers while Alcantara takes on the Los Angeles Dodgers -- lineups ranking second (.342) and third (.338) in wOBA against right-handed pitchers. With salaries in the range of Lopez and Strider, I can't justify either of them.

Michael Lorenzen ($10,200) gets another crack at the same Washington Nationals lineup he no-hit in his most recent start last week. Lorenzen is on the road this time out. Considering the Nationals just saw him and have posted a .786 OPS at home since the All-Star break (compared to .698 on the road), I'm fading him -- once again preferring to allocate a bit more of my budget to grab Lopez or Strider.

Kyle Gibson ($9,900) got shelled in his most recent starting, giving up 12 hits and 9 runs in 5.1 innings of work. Tonight's matchup against the Oakland Athletics is solid, but so was last week's against the Seattle Mariners. I don't need to tell you how bad the A's are, but I don't like to chase shaky arms coming off a poor outing. That same logic applies to Brayan Bello ($9,000) who only lasted 4.2 innings in Detroit his last time out and now visits Yankee Stadium. The New York Yankees have quietly been decent at home over the second half (.324 wOBA), and Bello's 16.7% HR/FB rate scares me in that little league park.

You could do a lot worse than J.P. France ($9,700) against the Seattle Mariners tonight. Since the All-Star break, the Mariners have struck out at the sixth-highest rate (26.6%) against righties but also have the eighth-highest wOBA (.340) over that span and just put up 22 runs in three games in their most recent series. Personally, I'd prefer someone like Tony Gonsolin ($8,000) who doesn't have great underlying numbers but hosts a Miami Marlins team that has the fifth-lowest wOBA (.295) against righties over the second half of the year.

Andrew Heaney ($8,600) is someone I'd avoid. The Milwaukee Brewers have been brutal since the All-Star break, but over that span, they actually sit in the top half of the league in wOBA against lefties (.327) and have a measly 18.5% strikeout rate.

Finally, if you're really digging deep into the bargain bin, lefty Zack Thompson ($6,200) struck out eight in his lone previous start and now gets a New York Mets that just let Adam Wainwright drop 19 FanDuel points on them last night. The Mets have a poor .293 wOBA against southpaws since the All-Star break, and Thompson has a 31.2% strikeout rate in limited action. Do with that what you will.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.