FanDuel Pitching Primer: Friday 7/14/23

When building a daily fantasy baseball lineup on FanDuel, nailing your pitcher is crucial to succeeding in any contest. Strikeouts are king -- although, innings-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

With a pitcher serving as the backbone of your lineup, we don't want to mess around. Let's take a look at some of the top pitcher options and values, as well as a dart throw for today's main DFS slate on FanDuel.

Statistics are via FanGraphs unless otherwise stated.

Top Options

Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays ($10,000)

Tampa Bay Rays righty Tyler Glasnow leads off the first pitching primer of the second half. Glasnow's appeal lies primarily with his matchup as the Rays visit the lowly Kansas City Royals.

Kansas City has been abysmal against right-handed pitching -- especially of late. Since June 1st, the Royals' .281 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties ranks as the second-lowest in the MLB. Over that same time, they're striking out at a 24.1% clip -- the seventh-highest rate in the league.

Glasnow's stats won't blow you away at the surface level, but a deeper dive suggests one of the more dominant pitchers in baseball.

An injury-delayed start has limited Glasnow to just 41.2 innings thus far but all the ingredients are there for fantasy success. The 6'8" fireballer holds a 2.98 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) this season, a number rivaled only by Cy Young candidate Spencer Strider among starters with at least 40 innings.

For DFS purposes, Glasnow's strikeout potential is what's really mouth-watering about him. His astronomical 36.4% strike rate sits in the 97th percentile league-wide, and he collected 31 strikeouts over his last three outings before the All-Star break.

Glasnow doesn't pitch deep into games, completing the sixth inning just once through eight starts. It hasn't mattered, though, considering he's eclipsed 30 FanDuel points in six of his previous seven starts -- two of which came against the high-powered Texas Rangers and Atlanta Braves offenses.

numberFire projects Glasnow for 32.0 FanDuel points tonight, which ranks as their third-highest projection of the slate. With Kansas City's implied team total sitting at a measly 3.68 runs, he's a top pitching option for DFS tonight.

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners ($9,700)

Seattle Mariners' righty Luis Castillo is the other top option to look at tonight. Castillo gets a solid home matchup tonight against the Detroit Tigers, and his 37.1-point projection is numberFire's largest of the slate

Castillo has been stellar in his first full season with the Mariners. He's maintained a strong 3.65 SIERA and is generating whiffs at a 32.2% clip -- an 88th-percentile mark league-wide. That's helped him generate strikeouts at a 26.9% rate.

That bodes well for his chances of fantasy success tonight -- especially against Detroit. For the season, the Tigers hold the sixth-highest strikeout rate (24.2%) and the third-lowest wOBA (.289) against right-handed pitchers.

Detroit also ranks in the top 10 in flyball rate, which is a potentially disastrous mark in the pitching-friendly T-Mobile Park.

Castillo has shown contest-winning upside all season long. He's eclipsed 40 FanDuel points in 9 of his 18 starts, including in two of his last three before the All-Star Break.

He only racked up 19 strikeouts over his last four starts, but an extended break and soft matchup spell fantasy success for Luis Castillo tonight. He's a top option for Friday's DFS slate.

Value Plays

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox ($8,500)

Boston Red Sox righty Brayan Bello checks in as a top-value play tonight in a solid matchup against the Chicago Cubs.

Bello has been lights-out over the last two months. Since May 1st, Bello ranks eighth among pitchers with at least 60 innings by allowing just a .266 wOBA. He's allowed just 18 runs over those 11 starts as the 24-year-old appears to be breaking out in his first full MLB season.

Bello isn't a heavy strikeout pitcher, racking up a measly 20.2% strikeout rate over his dominant stretch. What he excels at is generating ground balls. Since May, Bello ranks fourth in MLB with a 55.4% ground ball rate.

Cubs starter Marcus Stroman is one of the three guys generating more ground balls over the last two months, proving that to be a formidable strategy at Wrigley Field. Chicago owning the fifth-highest ground ball rate in the league (44.7%) only aids his case for DFS relevance tonight.

Chicago's north siders have some capable hitters in their lineup, but they've been ice-cold over the last month. Their .298 wOBA against righties is the fifth-lowest mark in the league over that span.

numberFire projects Bello for 29.4 FanDuel points tonight -- the most among sub-$9,000 pitchers. If you're looking to save some of your salary, Bello's a guy to target.

Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins ($7,000)

Digging into the bargain bin, Minnesota Twins righty Kenta Maeda has a ton of appeal at his $7,000 salary. A soft matchup with the Oakland Athletics further bolsters his case as a top value play.

Maeda's season-long numbers are ugly, but a 10-run blowup in April has inflated his ERA. He spent two months on the IL following that start but has looked sharp since returning. In those three starts, Maeda has allowed just three runs and struck out 21 in 22 innings of work.

Even with that blow-up, Maeda still owns a solid 3.81 SIERA, and he's cut his walk rate to 5.8% -- down from 7.1% last season.

The veteran Maeda has long been a capable strikeout pitcher, and his 25.5% strikeout rate this season is right in line with his 26.6% career mark.

For as well as he's pitched upon return, Maeda's biggest draw tonight is his matchup. Oakland boasts one of the weakest lineups in the league, ranking second-to-last with a .286 wOBA against righties. They've been equally kind to righties in the strikeout department, racking up the third-highest strikeout rate in the league (25.1%).

numberFire projects Maeda for 26.2 FanDuel points tonight. Considering he eclipsed 45 points in two of his three starts since returning from IL, he could blow past that projection in a soft matchup.

The combination of salary and matchup makes Maeda a top value play for tonight's DFS slate.

Honorable Mentions

Eduardo Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers ($10,400)

Eduardo Rodriguez will likely be a popular play in DFS tonight -- for good reason. numberFire projects E-Rod for the fourth-most FanDuel points at 31.4. He has a juicy matchup in a pitcher-friendly park against a Seattle Mariners lineup that strikes out at a 25.7% clip -- the second-highest mark in the league.

Still, I worry about some post-All-Star Game buzz in Seattle and his sky-high salary isn't as appealing compared to some of the other values on the board.

Miles Mikolas ($7,000)

Speaking of value, Miles Mikolas is numberFire's best value of the slate with 28.3 projected points and a measly $7,000 salary. Mikolas has been up-and-down this season, but he does own four 45+ point outings.

A soft matchup with the Washington Nationals really catches my eye --especially with his salary tag. Washington has the seventh-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season at .303. However, their lack of strikeout potential (18.7% strikeout rate; lowest in MLB) puts a cap on his upside.

Mikolas is best reserved for larger contests considering you can get Kenta Maeda at the same salary.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.