FanDuel Pitching Primer: Friday 6/30/23

Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.

While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.

Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup, and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.

All betting references come from the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top Options

Shane McClanahan ($11,000)

The Tampa Bay Rays get Shane McClanahan back today, and he comes in as one of the best options of the day.

McClanahan has recently been dealing with a back injury that forced a drop in velocity and, frankly, didn't have him looking like himself. This will be McClanahan's first start back, and he gets a good matchup to take advantage of against the Seattle Mariners.

It's been an interesting season for the Rays ace on the surface. He's arguably been the best pitcher in baseball, but if you look a bit deeper, his statistics aren't as good as in previous seasons. McClanahan currently has the best ERA among starters in baseball while his 3.96 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) ranks 27th and his strikeout rate of 28.7% is 18th. This is all to say that McClanahan is still one of the best; he just hasn't been completely dominant.

He should be, however, against the Mariners. Seattle has a 25.9% strikeout rate offensively, setting up McClanahan for a potential double-digit strikeout outing. The team's .304 weighted on-base average (wOBA) is 24th in the league.

The Mariners have the worst implied total of today's slate at 3.50.

McClanahan is projected for 34.1 FanDuel points, per numberFire's model. That's the second-most on the day.

Bobby Miller ($9,800)

Rookie starting pitcher Bobby Miller has a great chance to have a big performance for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Miller has come onto the scene for the Dodgers and has done well enough in his first 32 2/3 innings. The rookie hurler has a 22.6% strikeout rate to go with his 4.33 SIERA and 3.46 fielding independent pitching (FIP). The numbers may not stand out for him as much as many top options you'll see listed, but a chance to face the Kansas City Royals will surely help the cause for him as one.

The Royals have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Kansas City is only ahead of the Oakland Athletics in wOBA with a .293. They're not a worry with power by any means either, tying for 25th in home runs (73). Finally, the Royals are among the top 10 in strikeout rate at 24.6% (6th), allowing Miller a chance to have a big day for DFS players.

numberFire has Miller projected for the third most points of any starter today (32.4 FanDuel points).

Jose Berrios ($9,700)

Jose Berrios has been a lot better in his second full season with the Toronto Blue Jays and should thrive on today's slate.

Berrios still hasn't hit his heights from his time in Minnesota, but many of his numbers are up this season. The righty has brought his strikeout rate back up to 22.0% after a down year at 19.8%. He's missing bats at his best rate since 2020 with a 10.9% swinging strike rate. Berrios doesn't jump out with the SIERA at 4.16 -- which is higher than last season -- but he's forcing groundballs (45.4%) and is limiting hard contact against him.

The reason Berrios is a top option is because of his matchup with the Boston Red Sox. In getting swept against the Miami Marlins, the Red Sox scored just three runs in three games and are riding a five-game losing streak. If there were ever a time for Berrios to take advantage of a lineup and team that hasn't been feeling it, this would be it.

numberFire's model has Berrios projected for 29.9 FanDuel points.

Value Plays

Pablo Lopez ($9,500)

Pablo Lopez should have another great start ahead of him -- as we've become used to from the Minnesota Twins rotation.

The Twins may have moved on from Luis Arraez to get Lopez, but the righty has shown quickly that he was worth the move. Through his first 96 innings this season, Lopez has the highest strikeout rate of his career at 30.1%, which is the fifth-best rate of starters in the league. Lopez's 3.33 SIERA is also the best of his career. The strikeouts per nine of 11.25 and his 3.30 FIP only highlight how good he's been in his first season with the Twins.

With the Baltimore Orioles playing to the level they have been all season, there's certainly understandable hesitation on starting Lopez in this one, but the offense of Baltimore is close enough to the middle of the pack that he can take advantage.

The Orioles have the 11th-best wOBA (.324) and the 20th-ranked strikeout rate (21.8%). None of these will scare you, but they're certainly respectable.

numberFire has Lopez projected for big things today. He has the most projected points out of any pitcher (35.4 FanDuel points).

Freddy Peralta ($9,200)

Freddy Peralta will be a favorite for DFS lineups on today's slate.

The Milwaukee Brewers starter gets the assignment of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Peralta isn't the same pitcher he was years ago when he was sporting a 2.81 SIERA (4.16 SIERA this season), but he's still a capable pitcher who can put up quality numbers when the right opponent opposes him -- which the Pirates are. Through 81 1/3 innings, Peralta has a 25.4% strikeout rate while making batters swing and miss at a 12.6% rate.

Pittsburgh is unsurprisingly in the bottom half of the league this season. The Pirates have a .311 wOBA (21st) while their 93 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) ranks 23rd in the majors. Peralta will lean on getting his numbers through strikeouts, and Pittsburgh is striking out at a 22.6% rate.

There's real value to Peralta on today's slate with the Pirates having one of the worst implied totals of the day (3.98). He's projected for 30.4 points, per numberFire.

Tournament Options

James Paxton ($10,100)

The man they call the "Big Maple" has come back in a big way from Tommy John surgery.

James Paxton has been the Boston Red Sox's best pitcher since returning from injury. He's been outstanding with a 3.15 SIERA, which would be the best of his career if the season ended now. He's striking out batters at his highest rate since 2018 at 31.8% rate, and by all accounts, he's getting better each start. Recently, Paxton has been dealing with knee soreness that has pushed off this start a few days, but assuming his knee is good to go, he will be a good tournament play today.

The 3.42 FIP and 3.19 ERA do all the more to highlight how good he's really been since coming back from the injury.

The Toronto Blue Jays present a tough matchup for Paxton, however, which is why he's not a top option currently. The Blue Jays don't strike out all too much as they have a strikeout rate of just 20.7% (27th). Pairing that with an eighth-best .327 wOBA and sixth-best 109 wRC+ informs you how elite their offense still is in 2023.

Paxton is worth a look, but there are better options out there. numberFire has him projected for 27.8 points.

Jon Gray ($10,000)

Jon Gray is another tournament option for today's slate.

The Texas Rangers have been an offensive machine, and that has benefitted all their starters, Gray included. While the righty has a 2.89 ERA, he hasn't been as good as the surface numbers show with a 4.39 SIERA, which is just the 18th-highest amongst qualified starting pitchers.

Gray's strikeout rate doesn't jump off the page at 21.6% but it's getting the job done as he's limited the hard-hit rate this season, which is at 28.8% -- the lowest of his career since 2017. He does have the best swinging strike rate of his career (12.4%), which you'd think would lead to better strikeout numbers in the end.

The Houston Astros are a decent opponent for Gray to thrive, but they're still the Astros. Houston currently has a 102 wRC+ (11th) and a .317 wOBA (15th), which are both more middle-of-the-road than usual for the defending champions.

numberFire has Gray set for 28.2 points in today's start.

Quick Mound Visits

Osvaldo Bido ($7,800): Bido only has three starts to his short career for the Pirates, going only 15.2 in those starts combined but should thrive with a good matchup against the Brewers. He's at least worth considering as a low-salaried option who could put up a healthy amount of points.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.