FanDuel Pitching Primer: Friday 6/23/23
Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.
While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.
Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup, and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.
All betting references come from the MLB lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top Options
Logan Webb ($10,200)
Logan Webb has been a solid pitcher for the San Francisco Giants since 2021. He isn't the best strikeout pitcher, but he does enough to make him a viable option at the top today.
Webb is a groundball specialist, getting them at a 60.7% rate. That's the best rate in baseball this season. His 24.6% strikeout rate is fairly solid, as well, making him fit exactly what we want in a modern pitcher.
Facing a solid Arizona Diamondbacks lineup will not be easy, but Webb does benefit from pitching in his home stadium at Oracle Park. Oracle has a decided advantage for pitchers -- especially in terms of limiting home runs.
Webb is projected for 33.9 points by numberFire's model, the third best on today's slate.
Shane Bieber ($9,600)
Shane Bieber hasn't quite been the same pitcher over the past few seasons.
In the COVID-shortened season of 2020, Bieber had a stunning 41.1% strikeout rate. That's cratered to just 17.5% this season. He still is unlikely to get blown up, allowing hard contact just 32.9% of the time and getting ground balls at a 46.5% clip.
Bieber is in a good spot tonight. He'll face a Milwaukee Brewers lineup that strikes out 23.9% against righties. They also have a .310 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 93 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers, both in the bottom third of the league.
The Brewers have the fourth lowest-implied team total (3.73 runs) on the slate, and Bieber is projected for the fourth-most points in numberFire's model.
Mid Range Options
Chris Bassitt ($9,300)
Chris Bassitt was a big signing for the Toronto Blue Jays in the offseason. He's had ups and downs this season but should be able to have success today.
Bassitt had the best year of his career last season with a career-best 3.75 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) and 3.72 expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP). Those numbers have been higher this season at 4.48 and 4.54, respectively. His strikeout rate hasn't fallen too much from 22.4% in 2022 to 20.6% this season.
Luckily for Bassitt, he'll get a good matchup today against the Oakland Athletics. The A's had started to show some life until they went back to their old ways and lost eight games in a row. Against righties, they strike out at the fourth-highest rate while also being 28th in wOBA.
Oakland has the second-lowest implied run total (3.43), and Bassitt should be able to get through their lineup relatively unscathed tonight.
Joe Musgrove ($8,900)
Joe Musgrove is another pitcher who isn't having as strong of a season this year compared to the past couple of seasons but has a matchup good enough to still consider rostering him tonight.
Musgrove's strikeout rate has fallen to 20.9% after it was 24.9% last season and 27.1% in 2021. He does have the best expected ERA (xERA) of his career -- mostly driven by getting ground balls 46.3% of the time and allowing opponents to barrel the ball just 5.5% of the time.
Musgrove will face the Washington Nationals at home. He's a -290 favorite and the Nationals have the lowest implied team total (3.30) on the slate, making Musgrove a fairly safe option for just $8,900.
Tournament Dart
Patrick Sandoval ($8,200)
It's never comfortable rostering a pitcher in Coors Field, but there is a case to be made for Patrick Sandoval tonight.
Sandoval hasn't been able to get as many strikeouts this season, whiffing batters just 17.3% of the time. What he does have going for him is his 50.9% ground ball rate, which is great for pitching in Coors.
The reason you can consider Sandoval tonight is just how bad the Colorado Rockies have been against left-handed pitching this season. They have a .302 wOBA at home vs southpaws (fourth-worst in the league) and an abysmal 61 wRC+ in the split. They also strike out 25.6% of the time.
Sandoval is surprisingly projected for the fifth-most FanDuel points tonight and will likely be unpopular in tournaments tonight.
Quick Mound Visits
Lucas Giolito ($10,000): One of the few pitchers with a lot of strikeout upside on this slate, and he will face a good but not terrifying Boston Red Sox lineup.
Emmet Sheehan ($8,400): Another tournament-only option, Sheehan didn't allow a hit in his first MLB start last week and had a 41.7% strikeout rate in Double-A this season.
Dane Dunning ($7,700): Dunning isn't having the best season but is affordable and facing a New York Yankees lineup that is the second-worst on the slate in wOBA and wRC+ against righties.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.