FanDuel NFL DFS Picks: Week 16

We're entering the final stretch of regular season NFL DFS as there are only three weeks remaining in the 2024 campaign. As a reminder, FanDuel's DFS main slate now includes the Sunday night game and players are rewarded bonus points for achieving certain yardage thresholds.

While factoring the changes to NFL DFS on FanDuel, some players have an edge over others in the upcoming contests around the league.

Using our NFL DFS projections as a guide, let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 16 FanDuel main slate.

NFL DFS Picks for Week 16

Slate Overview

Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen, Bills

FanDuel Salary: $9,400
Matchup: vs. NE

Not much needs to be said about why Josh Allen is a smash play as the strong-armed signal-caller has tallied 44-plus FanDuel points (FDPs) in back-to-back weeks. While the New England Patriots are giving up the 12th-fewest FDPs per game to QBs (16.6), they are just 29th in pressure rate (29.3%) and 26th in defensive passing success rate (47.7%), via NextGenStats.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles

FanDuel Salary: $8,600
Matchup: at WAS

Seeing Jalen Hurts at a salary below $9,000 piques my interest ahead of a game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders that is expected to be played at the fourth-fastest pace, per our Brandon Gdula's numbers. Besides the fact that Hurts has scored at least one rushing TD in 9 of his last 10 outings, Hurts notched 28-plus FDPs for the fourth time this year in Week 15 as he put the ball in the air a bit more than usual.

Others to Consider

Joe Burrow ($8,300 vs. CLE) - We never have to worry about volume with Burrow as the Cincinnati Bengals remain first in pass rate over expected (+6.6%) by a decent margin entering Week 16. Even though there is some concern with the Cleveland Browns keeping things competitive after benching Jameis Winston, Burrow has three-plus TDs in six consecutive starts, and the Browns are 23rd in schedule-adjusted pass defense.

Baker Mayfield ($8,100 at DAL) - Mayfield has been productive again with Mike Evans back in the mix, scoring 21-plus FDPs in back-to-back weeks. Along with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers owning the fourth-highest implied total (26.0), the Dallas Cowboys are 26th in completion percentage over expected allowed (+0.02%) and are allowing the 3rd-most FDPs per game (21.0) to QBs.

Michael Penix Jr. ($6,000 vs. NYG) - It's hard not to at least mention Penix -- who our projections have as the second-best point-per-dollar play on the main slate -- as the rookie QB is the minimum salary in a favorable matchup versus the New York Giants at home. Even with Penix making his first start, the Atlanta Falcons still boast the sixth-highest implied total (25.5), and the Giants are permitting the 10th-most FDPs per game to QBs (18.2) this season.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, Falcons

FanDuel Salary: $8,900
Matchup: vs. NYG

Besides Penix being in a great spot in his first career start, the runway is clear for Bijan Robinson to torch New York's porous run defense that is ceding the most rushing yards over expected per attempt (1.23) and fourth-most FDPs per game (22.9) to RBs. Bijan has posted 17-plus FDPs in eight of his last nine contests, and he's averaged 27.8 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) and 119 scrimmage yards per game during that span.

James Conner, Cardinals

FanDuel Salary: $8,400
Matchup: at CAR

Things are setting up well for James Conner this week with the Carolina Panthers ceding the most FDPs per game to RBs (26.2) and the temperature expected to be around 40 degrees at kickoff on Sunday. Conner leads the league in missed tackles forced (61), via PFF, and Carolina's defense is sitting at 32nd in yards per attempt allowed (5.02) and 31st in defensive rushing success rate (46.3%) against RBs.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions

FanDuel Salary: $8,300
Matchup: at CHI

I pity everyone who has to face Jahmyr Gibbs in fantasy this week as the dynamic back should handle an expanded workload with David Montgomery potentially out for the rest of the season. Facing the Chicago Bears provides even more of a boost for Gibbs with Chicago's defense giving up the fifth-most FDPs per game to RBs (22.9) while they are tied with Carolina for the most rushing TDs surrendered to the position (15).

Others to Consider

Chase Brown ($8,200 vs. CLE) - Volume and efficiency has helped Brown finish as the RB10 or better in DFS across each of his last six appearances while he's notched 31.2 adjusted opportunities per game, 121.7 scrimmage yards per game, and a 92.6% red-zone rushing share in that sample. With the Bengals possessing the second-highest implied total (27.0) on the slate, Brown is expected to be busy again in an AFC North showdown at home.

Chuba Hubbard ($7,100 vs. ARI) - There could be some hesitancy among the masses to play Hubbard this week after he flopped as chalk in Week 15, but he's primed to bounce back versus an Arizona Cardinals team that is 27th in schedule-adjusted run defense and dead last in defensive rushing success rate to RBs (46.7%). The Panthers boast a modest 21-point implied total while Hubbard doesn't have much competition for backfield touches right now.

Tyjae Spears ($5,900 at IND) - At the moment, Tony Pollardhas yet to practice this week due to an ankle injury, and we already saw him receive decreased usage in last week's loss to the Bengals. If Pollard were to be ruled out or reports reveal that he could see limited action again, Spears becomes a viable salary-saving option after he produced a season-high 24.2 FDPs in Week 15 with the Tennessee Titans expected to be playing from behind yet again.

Wide Receivers

Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals

FanDuel Salary: $9,500
Matchup: vs. CLE

Even in a year where Cincy is going to need plenty of help to sneak into the playoffs, Ja'Marr Chase has a chance to earn the coveted triple-crown at WR as he leads the NFL in receptions (102), receiving yards (1,413), and receiving TDs (15). Aside from Chase flashing a ceiling of 39-plus FDPs three times this year, Cleveland's defense is allowing the third-most FDPs per target (1.59), sixth-highest target rate (21.1%), and most yards per route run (1.90) to WRs.

Puka Nacua, Rams

FanDuel Salary: $8,900
Matchup: at NYJ

While the matchup doesn't seem ideal for Puka Nacua, the do-it-all wideout leads the Los Angeles Rams in target share (34.4%), air yards share (37.3%), red-zone target share (35.7%), yards per route run (4.02), receptions per game (8), and receiving yards per game (108.4) in the seven games he's started and finished this season. The New York Jets just allowed 285 passing yards to Mac Jones in Week 15, and our projections have Nacua recording the second-most FDPs (15.3) on the slate.

Mike Evans, Buccaneers

FanDuel Salary: $8,800
Matchup: at DAL

Mike Evans will understandably be the most popular stacking option with Baker Mayfield as he leads the Bucs in target share (28.8%), air yards share (46.6%), yards per route run (3.94), receptions per game (6.5), and receiving yards per game (103.5) in his first four games back from injury. Besides the fact that Evans is chasing his 11th straight 1,000-yard season to begin his career, the Cowboys are allowing the seventh-highest target rate (20.9%) and fifth-most yards per route run (1.75) to WRs.

Others to Consider

CeeDee Lamb ($8,500 vs. TB) - Since Cooper Rush became the starting QB of the Cowboys in Week 10, CeeDee Lamb is pacing the team in target share (28.7%), end-zone target share (33.3%), receptions per game (6.8), and receiving yards per game (71.5) while he's scored 18-plus FDPs in back-to-back weeks. Lamb has a chance to continue his recent stretch of success with Tampa Bay's defense giving up the ninth-most FDPs per game to WRs (28.7).

Brian Thomas Jr. ($7,300 at LV) - There should be more attention given to Brian Thomas Jr. for how he's performed in his last four games, leading the Jacksonville Jaguars in target share (30.1%), air yards share (42.2%), end-zone target share (83.3%), and yards per route run (2.49) during that span. After putting up a season-high 30.5 FDPs in Week 15, Thomas gets to face a Las Vegas Raiders team that is 28th in schedule-adjusted pass defense.

Khalil Shakir ($6,600 vs. NE) - Shakir is one of the only trustworthy stacking options with Josh Allen, commanding seven-plus targets in each of his last eight starts while he's found the end zone in back-to-back games. According to RazzBall, the Patriots are permitting the 12th-most fantasy points per game to slot WRs, and they are also allowing the fourth-highest target rate (21.2%) and fourth-most yards per route run (1.75) to WRs.

Jalen McMillan ($5,800 at DAL) - If you're looking to get exposure to the Bucs on Sunday night and don't have the salary for Mike Evans, McMillan isn't a terrible salary-saving option at WR. While there is certainly risk in playing McMillan, the rookie wideout has shown signs of a potential late-season breakout with a 24.1% target share, 30.2% air yards share, 50.0% end-zone target share, and 2.53 yards per route run in the last two weeks.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride, Cardinals

FanDuel Salary: $7,500
Matchup: at CAR

Trey McBride couldn't ask for a much better matchup this week with the Panthers coughing up the second-most FDPs per game to TEs (13.3). While much has been made about McBride failing to find the end zone through the air, the talented TE is registering team-best marks in target share (34.9%), red-zone target share (47.4%), receptions per game (10), receiving yards per game (96.5), and yards per route run (2.56) over Arizona's last four contests.

Dalton Kincaid, Bills

FanDuel Salary: $5,600
Matchup: vs. NE

Even though Dalton Kincaid has been inconsistent and has yet to flash much of a ceiling in his first two seasons, he tallied a season-high 53 receiving yards in Week 15 while earning five-plus targets in his ninth consecutive appearance. Even though the Bills spread the ball around and Kincaid has scored a TD just twice all season, New England's defense is allowing the 12th-most FDPs per target (1.40) and 5th-highest target rate (20.2%) to the TE position.

Others to Consider

Brenton Strange ($5,200 at LV) - Strange seemed to pick up a shoulder injury during last week's loss to the Jets, so we'll need to monitor his status before lock. If Strange does suit up for the Jags in Week 16, he's coming off a game where he turned 11 receptions for 73 yards on 12 targets into 12.8 FDPs while the Raiders are giving up the fourth-most FDPs per game to TEs (12.5).

Hunter Henry ($5,000 at BUF) - Playing Henry has been a bit frustrating recently, but he still remains a key part of New England's aerial attack. With team-best marks in target share (21.8%) and red-zone target share (27.8%) since Drake Maye took over in Week 6, Henry is worth considering if you need to save salary as the Patriots should be throwing plenty to keep pace with the Bills.

Defenses

Cincinnati Bengals

FanDuel Salary: $4,400
Matchup: vs. CLE

Cincinnati's defense has surrendered a putrid 26.4 points per game this season, but they've been a bit opportunistic in recent weeks, totaling eight turnovers and two defensive TDs in their last three games. Upon producing a season-high 19 FDPs in Week 15, the Bengals' defense is set up for more success with Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting for the Browns, who are tied for the third-lowest implied total (19.5).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Salary: $4,300
Matchup: at DAL

Although things have been a bit shaky for Tampa Bay's defense this season, they've shown signs of improvement in their last four games, giving up an average of 15 points per game while earning 8-plus FDPs in three of those matchups. Despite Cooper Rush looking serviceable under center for the Cowboys, we'll see how he handles a Bucs' defense that blitzes at the third-highest rate (37.8%) in the NFL.

Others to Consider

Atlanta Falcons ($4,000 vs. NYG) - The Giants have named Drew Lock their starting QB on Sunday, and they have the second-lowest implied total (17.0) on the slate. While Atlanta's defense has struggled to generate consistent pressure, they've logged 11-plus FDPs in two of their last three games.

Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,600 at LV) - I'll admit that Jacksonville's defense is more enticing if Desmond Ridder is starting for Las Vegas. If Aidan O'Connell is back under center for the Raiders in Week 16, then I don't hate the idea of using the Cowboys D/ST ($3,400) or Giants D/ST ($3,100) if you need to save salary.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.