FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Tuesday 9/3/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Chris Sale ($11,600) and Paul Skenes ($10,900) on one main slate is plenty of juice at pitcher, but as is the case in NL Cy Young odds, Sale appears to have the upper hand.

The star lefty has got a pristine matchup with a Colorado Rockies team boasting a bottom-11 wRC+ (77) and strikeout rate (25.2%) against lefties in the last 30 days. Quietly, Skenes' opponent, the Chicago Cubs, have been raking against righties with a top-three team OPS (.809) and K rate (18.5%) against his split. It's a no-brainer for me despite friendly pitching weather aiding Skenes' cause at Wrigley.

On a slate this large, we've got premium stacks that won't quite work with Sale, necessitating value options in tournaments.

Ryne Nelson ($8,800) leads that charge with the lowest opposing implied team total (3.66) below $9,000. Nelson's Arizona Diamondbacks visit the San Francisco Giants, who sold bats at the deadline and, as a result, have limped to a bottom-five team OPS (.665) and strikeout rate (26.2%) in the past 30 days. After Labor Day, the cool, marine air at one of MLB's best parks for pitching also becomes a huge help to hurlers.

Extreme budget options are at least viable and present, as well. Perhaps on name value alone, Walker Buehler ($6,900) is intriguing despite an expected ERA (5.15 xERA) and K rate (17.9%) in the bottom 10% of MLB qualifiers. However, he's done a decent job of limiting hard contact (38.5% rate allowed) when tonight's opponent, the Los Angeles Angels, have the very worst team OPS in baseball against righties during the past month of play (.601). A quality start is plausible.

That last sentence probably remains the case for Kyle Hendricks ($6,300), too. Hendricks' low whiff rate (18.6%) always leaves plenty to chance, but a Pittsburgh Pirates order with a .700 OPS and .144 ISO against his handedness in the last 30 days isn't too frightening. He'll benefit from the same weather as Skenes with a hard-hit rate allowed (33.2%) better than Buehler. The sinkerballer seems like the better play straight up in the bargain bin.

Stacks to Target

• Los Angeles Dodgers (5.32 implied team total)
  • Reid Detmers' xERA (3.74) is much better than a 6.16 ERA would lead you to believe, but this is still a brutal spot for a return from Triple-A against a full-force Dodgers order. Plus, the Halos' bullpen has the worst xFIP in baseball (4.74) over the last 30 days. Outside of the top-tier studs, it's possible to fit them into Sale lineups, as well.
• Atlanta Braves (4.80)
  • Though rarely the case, Kyle Freeland's wOBA is .417 on the road compared to .295 at Coors Field this season. He's been better in those unfriendly confines. Somehow, this retooled Bravos order still leads baseball in OPS (.849) and ISO (.232) against southpaws in the past 30 days. Everyone in this lineup except Marcell Ozuna ($3,800) has a salary at or below $3.3K to work with their pitcher, too.
• New York Yankees (4.69)
  • Because of Sale and two other lower-salaried stacks, this might be a rare day the Bronx Bombers are under the radar despite HR/9 (1.21), flyball (45.7%), and hard-hit (39.5%) rates allowed from Andrew Heaney that look like a long ball or two from premier bats. The Rangers' bullpen is also having similar issues to the Angels' over the last 30 days (4.45 xFIP; third-worst in MLB).
• Milwaukee Brewers (4.60)
  • Steven Matz is just 27.1 innings into his season at this stage, but his 6.26 xERA, .317 expected batting average allowed (xBA), and 13.4% K rate wouldn't qualify well if they did. Once an outlier of a bad offense against lefties, Milwaukee has the league's 10th-best wRC+ against them in the past month (106). With no bats above $3,500 in the order, this is likely the best spot for a full stack with Sale that we've got.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.