FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Tuesday 9/10/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Today's main slate is led by Spencer Arrighetti ($10,100) and Pablo Lopez ($10,000).

Arrighetti's salary feels a bit hefty here. He ranks in the 81st percentile with a 27.5 strikeout percentage (K%), which is surely causing the inflated number, especially when he's reached 11 strikeouts in three of his last six starts. However, his 4.00 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 4.09 xFIP causes worry; Arrighetti posted a 21.22 xFIP (!) in his most recent outing.

Lopez, on the other end, is worth the top dollar. He carries the highest projected FanDuel points for tonight at 38.2. He's been over 42.0 FanDuel points in three consecutive starts, including a gaudy 58.0-point showing on August 24th. Lopez has recorded single-game xFIPs of 1.90, 3.38, and 1.38 over his last three games while averaging 7.0 strikeouts per start during the span. Tonight's opponent -- the Los Angeles Angels -- have the third-highest K% and third-fewest runs scored over the last 30 days.

Outside of the two top-dollar starts, Zac Gallen ($9,200) and Aaron Civale ($8,500) are a couple of solid options.

Gallen comes off a 55.0-FanDuel point performance, has not allowed a run in two of his last three starts, and is logging 8.0 strikeouts per game over his previous three outings. He faces the Texas Rangers, who have the 12th-fewest runs scored and 5th-fewest runs above average against four-seam fastballs (Gallen's most-used pitch) over the last 30 days. Gallen is even carrying the fourth-highest projected FanDuel points for Tuesday.

Civale has turned it up a notch over his last four starts with a 2.45 ERA. He's reached seven strikeouts in back-to-back games, as well. The San Francisco Giants have the second-fewest runs scored and second-highest K% over the last 30 days.

Rhett Lowder ($8,300) of the Cincinnati Reds is another option. While the rookie has only two starts under his belt, he's impressed with only one earned run. Pair this with the St. Louis Cardinals tied for the fifth-fewest runs scored over the last 30 days, and they are among the bottom-11 marks in runs above average against four-seam fastballs and sinkers (Lowder's top pitches).

Stacks to Target

• Cleveland Guardians (5.01 implied total)
  • Cleveland's sluggers should be a top priority tonight against the Chicago White Sox's Jonathan Cannon. He's in the bottom 36% in average exit velocity allowed and has allowed eight homers over his last eight starts. Cannon carries 1.70 home runs per nine innings against left-handed hitters. That bodes well for several of the Guardians' batters, including Jose Ramirez ($4,200) and Josh Naylor ($3,500).
• Houston Astros (4.80)
  • Taking on the Oakland Athletics' Osvaldo Bido should spell success for the 'Stros. Bido carries a 4.24 SIERA and 4.64 xFIP on the season. Kyle Tucker ($4,100) is a clear take with his .297/.434/.645 slash line against righties compared to .213/.333/.463 when facing southpaws. Jose Altuve ($3,600) is hitting at least .300 against four-seam fastballs and sliders -- Bido's most-used pitches. Yainer Diaz ($3,100) is a quality target who is more budget-friendly; he still takes advantage of Bido's pitch usage by hitting .279 against four seamers and .338 when seeing sliders.
• New York Yankees (4.57)
  • Perhaps my favorite batter of the day for DFS is Juan Soto ($4,500). While he commands the third-highest salary of the day, it comes with good reason. He carries our highest projected FanDuel points on the Yankees and touts a .333 batting average over 15 career at-bats against Seth Lugo. Soto is also off to a hot start in September with a .296/.472/.444 slash line. Giancarlo Stanton ($3,200) and Anthony Rizzo ($2,700) also have had success in matchups with Lugo.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.