FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Thursday 9/12/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate, which starts at 6:45 p.m. ET.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Well, I have to do a little mental gymnastics to get excited about any of the pitchers on this slate. Factoring in salary, the three I am most into are Gavin Williams ($7,500), Frankie Montas ($8,100) and Mitchell Parker ($8,100).

Montas is my favorite of the bunch. He is at the San Francisco Giants, a team with the second-highest strikeout rate in the second half (26.6%). Montas has been decent with the Milwaukee Brewers (4.00 SIERA and 25.6% K rate) after struggling for most of the season with the Cincinnati Reds (4.80 SIERA and 19.0% K rate). His K prop is at 5.5 with -128 odds on the over.

Parker has been decent for the Washington Nationals in his rookie campaign, generating a 4.24 SIERA, 21.0% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. He gets a boost from a home date with the Miami Marlins. At home, Parker is permitting just a .286 wOBA (.349 on the road), and Miami's active roster is 29th in wOBA versus southpaws (.267) with the 7th-highest strikeout rate in the split (24.8%).

Williams hasn't quite lived up to his prospect billing, but he's still got a 23.8% K rate and 11.3% swinging-strike rate through his first 142 MLB frames. While Williams has had some blowup outings lately, he's also had a tough schedule, and it should be easier sledding today versus the Tampa Bay Rays, a team whose active roster is 28th in wOBA since the break (.286).

Stacks to Target

• Washington Nationals (5.04 implied total)
  • There's two offenses in their own tier tonight, and it's the first two I'm writing up. The Nats get Darren McCaughan, a right-hander who has surrendered seven runs over 8 2/3 innings in his first two starts of 2024. C.J. Abrams ($3,300) is my favorite bat on the slate. He's back in the leadoff spot and offers a sweet power/speed combination. James Wood ($3,400) is another high-ceiling bat for Washington.
• New York Yankees (4.75)
  • The Yanks get a home matchup with Cooper Criswell. I'll be honest: I'm not in love with them, and I'm sure they'll be very chalky. With that said, Aaron Judge ($4,900) and Juan Soto ($4,500) are obviously elite options on any slate, and given the pitching options I like, I need to spend salary somewhere. My reasoning for not being all in on the Yankees today is that Criswell -- the owner of a 50.9% ground-ball rate -- doesn't give up many homers (0.88 per nine).
• Boston Red Sox (3.80)
  • Aside from the Nationals and Yankees, no other team has an implied total above 3.97. I'm willing to get weird and stack the Red Sox against lefty Nestor Cortes. Nestor is solid. Heck, you could make a case to plug him in at pitcher. But he's also got just a 4.08 SIERA and 22.1% K rate. There's a chance Boston lefties Rafael Devers ($3,700) and Jarren Duran ($3,900) go overlooked, and that's appealing. Robert Refsnyder ($2,700) is a handy value cog while Tyler O'Neill ($3,500) has a .486 wOBA and 51.3% fly-ball rate against left-handers.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.