FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Sunday 9/15/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

This is my absolute favorite type of pitching slate. With no ace to be found, pick your value hurler in an elite matchup. I'll lay out the case for five that fit that description.

Carlos Rodon ($10,100) leads the entire slate in salary, and it should actually boost his popularity as the impotence of this Boston Red Sox matchup becomes public knowledge. Boston has a pitiful 74 wRC+ and 29.8% strikeout rate (third-highest in MLB) against lefties over the past 30 days. However, Rodon's issues with the long ball (1.59 HR/9 allowed) in baseball's third-best park for homers could spoil the chalk quickly.

I prefer a deeper pivot with elite stacks to come. MacKenzie Gore ($8,900) fits that bill against the Miami Marlins as Miami turns in similar numbers against southpaws over the past month. Gore's 12.3% swinging-strike rate brings plenty of upside when his low flyball (34.9%) and hard-hit (38.4%) rates allowed in conjunction provide the exact floor Rodon lacks. He's just faced a brutal strength of schedule this season.

Ben Lively ($8,400) is another with an opposing implied team total below four (3.81), but we know the deal with him at this stage. The sinkerballer's not topped five Ks in each of his last eight games, so he'd be more of play on a quality start against a Tampa Bay Rays club with a dismal .663 OPS against righties in the past 30.

I'm stunned JP Sears ($8,000) and David Festa ($7,900) are behind him just because of the K upside they've flashed when their matchups are well-known bottom-feeders, too.

With an expected ERA (4.27 xERA), strikeout rate (18.0%), and hard-hit rate allowed (39.4%) in the bottom 45% of MLB, Sears' issues lie in his ability more than a matchup with the Chicago White Sox. Most will blindly click the Chicago button in this range, but it feels like we can do better.

Festa is perhaps that better. The righty's 3.94 xERA has come with a massive 28.6% strikeout rate so far, and the Cincinnati Reds have been neither dangerous (93 wRC+) nor disciplined (25.2% K rate) against right-handers in the past month.

I'd power rank these five with Gore out front followed by Festa, Rodon, Lively, and Sears bringing up the rear.

Stacks to Target

• Chicago Cubs (5.96 implied team total)
  • I've leaned away from the Cubs chalk the past two days, but Cal Quantrill's 5.03 xERA with a 40.1% hard-hit rate and 1.30 HR/9 allowed suggest a breakout party. Quantrill has actually surrendered more homers to righties than lefties this season, making Seiya Suzuki ($3,800) a contrarian pivot among his teammates with the platoon edge.
• Colorado Rockies (5.54)
  • Can the Rox complete the sweep? Kyle Hendricks will certainly present an opportunity, per Hendricks' awful 5.12 xERA, .288 expected batting average allowed (xBA), and 15.4% K rate. The sinkerballer doesn't have extreme home run issues, though, which could place Colorado behind the visitors on today's pecking order.
• Oakland Athletics (4.79)
  • Sean Burke's MLB debut last three scoreless innings with decent peripherals against the Cleveland Guardians, but Cleveland's a bottom-five offense against righties since the break (.659 OPS). Surprisingly, the A's are much better, and Burke's xFIP in Triple-A this season (4.31) wasn't exactly lockdown town. Oakland's salaries work well in a Rodon build compared to Coors.
• New York Yankees (4.75)
  • In three starts against the Bombers this season, Kutter Crawford has allowed eight earned runs and five homers across 17.2 total innings. We'll fire up the matchup one more time in 2024 as Crawford's 1.67 HR/9 allowed leads all MLB starters with at least 150 innings pitched. Most of the salary saved at pitcher can be dumped here or at Coors Field.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.