FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Sunday 9/1/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

This slate rules from the perspective of really making you decide where it's best to spend salary. There is a marquee option at pitcher and plenty of quality stacks.

That marquee man is Dylan Cease ($10,300) within a friendly matchup in baseball's third-best park for pitching. Cease takes his 3.33 expected ERA (xERA) and 30.6% strikeout rate on the road to face the Tampa Bay Rays, who have fallen apart against righties since the trade deadline, per their .639 team OPS and 26.1% team K rate in the split. He should shove.

I don't even know if he'll be extraordinarily popular as many seek safety in Sean Manaea ($10,000) behind him. The lefty's matchup couldn't get any better against the Chicago White Sox; I'm just a bit perturbed by his own 39.0% hard-hit rate allowed and reputation of blowup starts. I prefer Cease, but he's another quality five-digit option.

The tricky part is finding a value pitcher worth consideration if we want to load up on a couple of these unbelievable stacks.

Mitch Keller ($8,600) can help with that a bit. It's easy to see a path for a nice day for his 3.93 xERA when the Cleveland Guardians have a dismal .660 team OPS against righties in the past 30 days. They just haven't whiffed much in those parameters (20.5% K rate).

A dart way down the board I don't mind is Cooper Criswell ($6,900) of the Boston Red Sox. He's visiting the Detroit Tigers' .725 team OPS against righties over the past month (11th-worst in MLB), and Criswell is a reliable hurler that gets groundballs (49.6% rate), limits hard contact (36.6% rate allowed), and prevents homers (0.87 HR/9 allowed). He's a high-floor value play to look at if you're assuming the stacks shine.

Stacks to Target

• Baltimore Orioles (6.27 implied team total)
  • This section is the best it's been all week, including the O's squaring off with Ty Blach (6.92 xERA) at Coors Field -- and what's largely a bullpen day since Blach hasn't topped 60 pitches since June 20th. The Colorado Rockies have the fourth-worst reliever xFIP over the past 30 days (4.49), too. The only issue here is the entire top six are 1B/OF options, so a four-man stack is tough.
• New York Yankees (5.46)
  • Tricky sinkerballer Miles Mikolas has had issues with the long ball in 2024 (1.26 HR/9), and that makes for bad news entering a date with the Bronx Bombers in MLB's third-best park for home runs. The salaries on the top guys here are absurd, but depth options like Austin Wells ($3,200), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,100), and Jazz Chisholm ($3,000) are also raking in this split. They're not even off the table in Cease lineups.
• Houston Astros (4.69)
  • This lower implied total and hefty salaries for Yordan Alvarez ($3,800) and Jose Altuve ($3,700) should make the 'Stros an under-the-radar target behind those top two stacks -- and the Rockies at home. Still, Alec Marsh has the worst flyball (43.5%) and hard-hit rates (40.8%) allowed of any of the pitchers we've discussed so far. My favorite stack in tournaments.
• Oakland Athletics (4.29)
  • This final recommendation has Cease in mind, but on a "normal" slate for stacking, the A's wouldn't be bad at all. Walter Pennington's 4.24 xERA in 9.0 innings so far has held well, but the rook had a 4.23 xFIP in Triple-A last season. Plus, the Texas Rangers have the third-worst bullpen xFIP over the past 30 days (4.53). I wouldn't stray far from Brent Rooker ($3,400), but the salaries do help a contrarian build with an ace.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.