FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Monday 9/16/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Paul Skenes ($11,500) is pitching today, so this slate revolves around either fitting his high salary into your lineup or crossing your fingers in hopes that the rookie phenom doesn't destroy in his matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Skenes averages an earth-shattering 42.25 FanDuel points per game thanks to an impactful 32.3% strikeout rate. The Cardinals aren't the most strikeout-prone team around (21.6% K%; 11th-lowest in MLB) but their meh offense could have Skenes flying through their batting order. He's seen them twice this season and posted 47 FanDuel points in both meetings.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are essentially out of playoff contention (10 games behind final NL Wild Card spot) and could look to play it safe with Skenes in his final few starts of the season. As hard as it is to fade him, it might not be the worst day to consider looking elsewhere.

Seth Lugo's ($10,200) volatility makes him an intriguing high-risk, high-reward play at his salary. He posted a whopping 61 FanDuel points in his most recent outing and has notched at least 40 FanDuel points in four of his last five starts. With that said, Lugo mixed in 3- and 10-FanDuel point outings in August. However, a date with the Detroit Tigers, a team that ranks sixth in K rate versus righties, could have him dealing tonight. Our projections expect Lugo to record a slate-high 36.3 FanDuel points given the friendly matchup.

Skenes and Lugo are my favorite top-dollar options, but you could look past them to find a pair of more moderate-salaried pitchers who will walk into great matchups.

Let's start with Reid Detmers ($8,500). His 27.2% K% has allowed him to grab 46 FanDuel points in two straight outings. A meeting with the Chicago White Sox could result in more of the same for Detmers. Chicago strikes out at a meaty 23.9% rate (10th-highest in MLB) and ranks dead-last in SLG, wOBA, and wRC+. Our projections have Detmers as the second-best points-per-dollar play for Monday.

Past Detmers, you can find Andre Pallante ($7,400). Pallante's strikeout numbers aren't particularly pretty but anything goes in a matchup with the Pirates, a team that strikes out at a 24.5% rate (seventh-highest) and suffers the fourth-worst wOBA in MLB. Our projections suit Pallante as the top point-per-dollar thrower on today's main slate.

Stacks to Target

• Arizona Diamondbacks (6.39 implied total)
  • Our four highest-projected batters for Monday's slate are all members of the Diamondbacks: Joc Pederson ($3,500), Christian Walker ($3,900), Ketel Marte ($4,400), and Corbin Carroll ($4,100). Antonio Senzatela of the Colorado Rockies hasn't made an appearance since May 10th, 2023 and is off the heels of Tommy John surgery. The conditions at Coors Field and a meeting with a brutal Arizona offense should make for a rude return. While I have no problem working any of those aforementioned players into your lineup, I'd look to squeeze Eugenio Suarez ($4,200) in there, too, perhaps before Carroll.
• Chicago Cubs (4.55)
  • The Cubs aren't the easiest team to stack given the parity in their lineup, but they do have the third-highest implied team total on today's main slate and will draw a matchup against Joey Estes. Estes surrenders a .215 ISO, 1.51 home runs per nine innings, and a league-high 56.0% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters. I'd start with Cody Bellinger ($3,200) and consider pairing him with lefties Michael Busch ($2,800) and Pete Crow-Armstrong ($2,800). The salaries here are particularly enticing if you are looking to get to Skenes today.
• Los Angeles Angels (4.50)
  • It feels necessary to get in on an Arizona stack given how high their implied total fares compared to the rest of the bunch. Getting in on them and either of Skenes or Lugo will be even more difficult. But LAA's offense could help us make that work. Jonathan Cannon will take the mound for the opposing Chicago White Sox. Cannon sports a 4.57 ERA, 4.67 xERA, 4.70 xFIP, and 4.83 SIERA. To lefties, he lets up a .504 SLG, 1.59 home runs per nine innings, and a 37.7% fly-ball rate. Left-handers Nolan Schanuel ($2,800) and Niko Kavadas ($2,500) could make for a decent salary-saving mini-stack.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.