FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Friday 9/6/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Friday's slate is stacked with high-salary pitchers, including Tarik Skubal ($12,000), Zack Wheeler ($11,500), Framber Valdez ($10,600), Cole Ragans ($10,500), and Michael King ($10,000). Skubal is on track to win the American League Cy Young while Wheeler is expected to finish second for the hardware with the second-shortest odds to win the National League Cy Young (+1000). Skubal, Wheeler, Ragans, and King are all within the top-nine leaders for strikeouts, as well. In short, be prepared to invest a lot in a starter tonight.

Among the five candidates, Skubal and King are looking like the best options. Our MLB DFS projections are forecasting the highest fantasy point totals for the two starters. Skubal gets to face the Oakland Athletics, which holds obvious upside with the sixth-fewest runs scored and fourth-highest strikeout percentage (K%). The Giants are averaging an alarming 12.3 strikeouts per game over their last four while King holds the highest projected K total of the night at 7.7.

Outside of this group of starters, Nick Pivetta ($9,300) demands some attention as he gets to take on the worst team in baseball, the Chicago White Sox. Pivetta's opponent holds the fourth-lowest implied team total of the night at 3.3. Chicago managed to record eight runs on September 4th against the Baltimore Orioles but still hold the fewest runs scored over the last 30 days be a sizable margin (24 fewer runs than the second-smallest total).

Budget options are few and far between tonight. Zebby Matthews ($7,200) could be the best option. The rookie's 7.41 ERA is admittedly very scary, but his single-game xFIPs have been 3.01, 2.21, and 3.48 in three of his four starts. Outside of his 7.62 single-game xFIP on August 19th, Matthews' advanced stats are actually solid. The Kansas City Royals have logged only 2.3 runs per game over their previous seven games, as well.

Stacks to Target

• Boston Red Sox (5.20 implied total)
  • Once again, anyone facing the White Sox usually means a good matchup. Chicago is putting Davis Martin on the mound. While his 3.64 ERA over six starts in August is promising, he's dealt with some issues against sluggers, holding mediocre marks in average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard-hit rate allowed. Boston sits within the top five of SLG and ISO. Rafael Devers ($3,600) and Tyler O'Neill ($3,600) are solid options, for O'Neill carries +400 odds to hit a home run while Devers is +430.
• Los Angeles Dodgers (4.66)
  • Through four starts this season, Matt Boyd has a 2.38 ERA. However, this is a prime regression candidate with single-game xFIPs of 7.25 and 4.88 in two of his previous three appearances. The Dodgers are one of the best batting orders in baseball against southpaws, carrying the third-highest batting average and OBA in this split. Instead of backing Shohei Ohtani ($5,000), who bats .264 against lefties compared to .305 against righties, Mookie Betts ($4,100), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,600), and Will Smith ($3,300) are more promising options. Each batter sees their stats spike against southpaws. Hernandez carries +320 odds to hit a home run and carries a 27.0% HR/FB on the season against lefties while Boyd carries a 50.8% fly-ball rate.
• Baltimore Orioles(4.52)
  • We have another regression candidate in Shane Baz, who has single-game xFIPs surpassing 4.7 in four straight starts. Yet, Baz posted a combined ERA of 3.38 during the four-game span. Baz is in the bottom 4% in average exit velocity allowed and bottom 20% in hard-hit rate yielded. Enter the O's, who boast the top ISO and SLG in MLB. This batting order is packed full of sluggers, including Gunnar Henderson ($4,300), Anthony Santander ($4,200), Adley Rutschman ($3,100), Colton Cowser ($3,000), and Ryan O'Hearn ($3,000), making Baltimore a worthy stack.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.