MLB

FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Friday 9/20/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Friday 9/20/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to incorporate our MLB DFS projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- into your research process. numberFire also has the latest starting lineups and weather as well as heat maps to help you find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Friday's pitching is not short on marquee names, but there are definitely warts on all cases.

Gerrit Cole ($10,400) leads the slate in salary amidst a matchup (at Oakland Athletics) that sounds delightful on paper -- until you see the Athletics' .757 OPS against righties in the past 30 days (9th in MLB). In a pitcher-friendly park when the A's still whiff plenty in those parameters (25.3% K rate), I could still see things working out for him.

The Detroit Tigers are one of baseball's hottest clubs against righties themselves, so I don't see a phenomenal case for Corbin Burnes ($10,200) outside of the Tigers' 3.36 implied team total. I've struggled with Burnes' low strikeout rate (22.6%) for a five-digit salary all season, though.

Joe Musgrove ($9,900) got the Chicago White Sox salary bump for their matchup at Petco. Chicago's doing their thing with an MLB-worst .606 OPS against righties in the past month, but Musgrove's own 4.75 expected ERA (xERA) and 41.4% hard-hit rate allowed are pretty concerning amidst the names we've mentioned.

My favorite option above $9K is actually George Kirby ($9,400), who has mopped the Texas Rangers for at least 40 FanDuel points in each of his first two starts against them -- and this edition of the matchup won't have Corey Seager in Texas' lineup.

Jacob deGrom isn't likely to top 70 pitches on the other side no matter how stellar those pitches might be against Kirby's Seattle Mariners. We're into the bargain bin from those two.

It starts with Justin Verlander ($7,900), who I wouldn't be surprised to see as Friday's highest-rostered pitcher. Facing the Los Angeles Angels at home is a solid supporting argument, but it's hard to get jazzed about a guy allowing 1.58 HR/9 with a fly-ball rate (53.4%) to prove it's no joke. His 18.7% K rate provides minimal upside, too.

I prefer David Festa ($7,800) -- even in Fenway Park. The venue is all that's bothering him as the Boston Red Sox have sunk to a 66 wRC+ and 27.0% strikeout rate against righties in the past month of play. If I'm worried about home run issues (1.47 HR/9), I might as well get upside like Festa's 28.1% K rate in a better matchup.

Stacks to Target

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (5.37 implied team total)
    • If you hadn't heard, the Dodgers had a pretty good day to post a 20-burger on Thursday, and it won't get much tougher in the form of Kyle Freeland. The lefty's bizarre splits away from Coors Field include a much higher ERA (5.91) and HR/9 allowed (1.71). L.A. is clicking on all cylinders and should be a popular choice to put the salary saved with Verlander.
  • Houston Astros (4.75)
    • It gets much dicier behind L.A., but Tyler Anderson has coughed up at least four earned runs in four of his last six starts as the high-octane 'Stros await him in H-Town. Anderson's 42.9% fly-ball and 7.8% barrel rate allowed are primed for a dinger or two, and the Angels' bullpen (4.18 xFIP in the past 30 days) always allows for quality ABs late.
  • New York Yankees (4.55)
    • Wondering what this implied total might be for the Bombers at home, I can't help but think they might be the sneaky stack of the day just because of tonight's venue. Oakland's J.T. Ginn (4.75 xERA) coughs up 1.62 HR/9, and their bullpen (4.51 xFIP in the last 30 days) is atrocious outside if you can get ahead to dodge Mason Miller.
    • It's undetermined what impact clinching the AL's top seed has on tonight if the lineup still consists of Aaron Judge ($4,900) and quality parts.
  • Colorado Rockies (3.63)
    • I must be missing something when comfortably projecting the Rockies for at least four markers tonight. Walker Buehler (5.02 xERA) has been dreadful all season, and the Dodgers' bullpen has the worst xFIP in baseball by a mile over the past month (4.82). Colorado is a sneaky stack or mini-stack to get toward the top of the pitching pool.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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