FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Friday 8/30/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Friday's main slate locks at 7:05 pm ET and features 10 games, giving us plenty of arms to choose from.

At the top, it's hard to argue against Blake Snell ($11,200). Snell couldn't find the zone in his most recent start, issuing six walks and managing just 18 FanDuel points (FPs) over three innings. But he'd been lights out in the five starts leading up to that dud, pitching to a 1.05 ERA with a 44% K% and averaging 57.6 FPPG in that span. I'd expect him to get back on track at home against a Miami Marlins side that ranks 29th in wRC+ (78) and has an above-average strikeout rate (22.1%) against left-handed pitching.

Sky's the limit here, and our MLB DFS projections peg Snell for a slate-best 40.6 FPs. Given his matchup and proven upside, he figures to be the (rightful) chalk arm.

No other pitcher on the slate sniffs Snell's strikeout upside on paper, although Framber Valdez ($11,100) has given it his best shot over the second half. Since the All-Star break, Valdez is 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 33.3% K%. That K% ticks up to 34.2% if we include his final start of the first half. He's given up a miniscule 4.3% barrel rate and forced ground balls at a 55.7% clip during that stretch. That's ace-level stuff, and it's resulted in him averaging 46.3 FPPG over his last eight starts.

Valdez gets the Kansas City Royals at home. KC has hardly struck out (17.6%) and has the seventh-highest wRC+ (113) against lefties on the road, but they managed just three runs in yesterday's series-opener and just lost Vinnie Pasquantino for the season. Valdez should be fine, and he's a viable pivot off the likely chalkier Snell.

Others to Consider

• George Kirby ($9,400 at LAA)
  • It's fair to question Kirby's upside (he's cracked 40 FPs only once since the All-Star break) thanks to a meh 23.5% K%, but his salary has dipped enough to make him viable in a juicy matchup with the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels are 29th in wRC+ (75) and have the third-highest K% (25.9%) against righties over the second half. There's likely a sizable floor here, and we project Kirby for 35.1 FPs, making him the second-best point-per-dollar value on the bump (3.73 FPs per $1,000).
• Clayton Kershaw ($7,700 at ARI)
  • A road date with the red-hot Arizona Diamondbacks isn't ideal, not when they've struck out at just a 19.7% clip and sport a 111 wRC+ against lefties over the second half. But a $7.7K salary puts Kershaw in play as value option, especially with four five-figure arms at the top. He's pitched to a 3.72 ERA and 4.34 SIERA thus far, and the 19% K% is less than ideal. But he's also surrendered only a 3.2% barrel rate and worked up to 88 pitches the last time out. Consider him a value play in tournaments, but I'd shy away in cash games.

Stacks to Target

• Baltimore Orioles (6.09 implied total)
  • Here's what everyone's been waiting for -- the Orioles are playing at Coors Field. It's near-impossible to stack them if you shell out for one of the top pitchers, but a date with lefty Austin Gomber (4-9, 4.70 ERA) certainly warrants Baltimore's monster salaries. Against a lefty, I'd pass on Gunnar Henderson ($4,500) in favor of Anthony Santander ($4,100) and Adley Rutschman ($3,600). The salaries for back-end of the Orioles' lineup are surprisingly easy to jam in even with the Coors bump.
• Colorado Rockies (5.41)
  • Albert Suarez (6-4, 3.18) has a stellar ERA, but his SIERA is 4.63 and his fly-ball rate is north of 40%. That puts Colorado on the stacking radar at their home venue. Brenton Doyle ($3,600), Charlie Blackmon ($3,300), and Brendan Rodgers ($2,700) all have wOBAs north of .350 against righties at home.
• New York Mets (5.27)
  • Over his last three starts, Chicago White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon has surrendered 21 hits, 8 walks, and 13 runs. His SIERA is up to 4.80 on the year, so there's plenty to like about the Mets. Francisco Lindor ($3,800), Mark Vientos ($3,400), and Pete Alonso ($3,400) are all in play, but don't sleep on J.D. Martinez ($3,200). We project him for 16 FPs, making him the top point-per-dollar value among batters (5.0 FPs per $1,000).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.