FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and Helper: Tuesday 8/20/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to incorporate our MLB DFS projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- into your research process. numberFire also has the latest starting lineups and weather as well as heat maps to help you find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Even on a whopper of a 13-game main slate, expect the field to concentrate around one arm: Robbie Ray ($9,700).

The Chicago White Sox have just been impossibly bad against southpaws in the past 30 days, posting a horrific .482 team OPS and 27.0% strikeout rate in the split. Ray's upside is obvious with a 32.6% K rate himself in 21.0 innings completed thus far, and his 6.00 ERA is less indicative of his current performance than an above-average skill-interactive ERA (3.76) and hard-hit rate allowed (33.3%).

Even so, the lefty's 2.57 HR/9 allowed allow the possibility to be shelled, and worthy alternatives do exist.

Javier Assad ($7,700) might be my favorite when upside -- not stability -- is his issue at a value salary that allows elite stacks. Assad's opponent, the Detroit Tigers, have a measly 77 wRC+ and 24.5% strikeout rate against righties in the past month, and winds are expected to blow in at Wrigley tonight. That wraps all into a tiny 3.41 implied total for Detroit. The low-risk sinkerballer's SIERA (4.79) isn't great, but he's a high-floor option who avoids hard contact (37.2% rate allowed).

It might be surprising to learn the Los Angeles Angels are a brutal matchup for Cole Ragans ($10,800), per their .726 team OPS and 19.8% K rate against lefties in the last 30 days. At salary, I'm leaning toward leaving the lefty behind in cash games even though his skill (3.41 SIERA) and K upside (29.8% rate) have largely proven to withstand any matchup.

A couple of other pivots are Luis Gil ($9,600) and Cody Bradford ($8,300).

Gil seems like a bounce-back candidate after getting shelled by the White Sox in his last start, and Cleveland hasn't hit righties at all in the past month (league-worst .627 team OPS). As for Bradford, the Pittsburgh Pirates' 31.1% K rate against lefties in the past 30 days opens the door to the surprisingly effective southpaw (3.94 SIERA). With a quality start the goal for his salary, Bradford's ability to limit hard contact (36.2%) should blend well with the Buccos' tendency to whiff.

Stacks to Target

• Los Angeles Dodgers (4.55 implied team total)
  • Bryce Miller's 3.88 SIERA seems like wizardry when he's got elevated hard-hit (41.1%) and barrel (9.8%) rates behind it. His home ballpark can hide it, but Dodger Stadium is a park notorious for dingers. This feels like a sneaky spot to buy the Dodgers rest of season having gotten back Mookie Betts ($4,300) and Max Muncy ($3,300) recently. With no obvious stack on the slate, betting on talent isn't a horrible idea.
• San Francisco Giants (4.51)
  • It'll be Davis Martin for the Pale Hose tonight, and Martin's 3.00 ERA shouldn't scare you off when a 4.80 SIERA and 12.2% barrel rate sit behind it. Though the Chicago White Sox have stretched him out to at least 80 pitches in consecutive starts, we should also still see plenty of Chicago's 'pen in its usual form (4.92 xFIP in the last 30 days). We'd love a better offense and ballpark, but this is the opposite of the Dodgers and betting on a lack of talent.
• Texas Rangers (4.27)
  • Texas is a distant fourth for me behind these other three stacks, but Mitch Keller's down season (4.18 SIERA) taking a stop through the MLB's seventh-best hitter's park can certainly work. Pittsburgh's bullpen has also stumbled to a 4.67 xFIP in the past month. The larger problem is Texas' order, making the optimal play here perhaps a Corey Seager ($3,600) one-off.
• Cincinnati Reds (3.96)
  • My favorite overall stack on the slate. Jose Berrios has coughed up 1.62 HR/9 this season with flyball (38.8%) and hard-hit (42.9%) rates to back it up, and the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen is the only one with a higher xFIP (4.95) in the past 30 days than Chicago's. This lineup stinks against righties at the bottom, but the marquee options from it -- like Elly De La Cruz ($3,700) -- are just fine. The low implied total here is puzzling.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.