FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and Helper: Sunday 8/4/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to incorporate our MLB DFS projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- into your research process. numberFire also has the latest starting lineups and weather as well as heat maps to help you find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

The Arizona Diamondbacks are one of the league's toughest matchups for a righty, but with no Christian Walker in the fold, Paul Skenes ($11,300) is still on the menu. Livvy Dunne's beau has proven to be largely matchup proof behind a 2.58 expected ERA (xERA), .200 expected batting average allowed (xBA), and 33.3% strikeout rate that are all 93rd percentile or better across baseball. That's why Arizona's team total (3.34) is still teensy.

Value arms have the other lowest implied totals on the slate. Max Fried ($9,400) draws the Miami Marlins' slate-low 3.12-run implied total, which is likely due to Miami's .712 OPS (8th-worst) and 24.8% K rate (11th-highest) against southpaws in the last 30 days. Fried's hard-contact (33.2%) and groundball (59.3%) rates allowed are elite, making him a high-floor value plug.

Then, based solely on match, Simeon Woods Richardson ($8,900) has to be in play. Woods Richardson's 3.96 xERA and 9.2% barrel rate got the better of him in a blowup last week in Queens, but the Chicago White Sox's 55 wRC+, .557 OPS, and .113 ISO against right-handers are worst in MLB over the past month of play. They've lost 19 in a row for a reason.

Corbin Burnes ($10,100) and Nick Pivetta ($9,700) face bottom-eight offenses against righties in the past 30 days, but they're also both bottom-eight matchups for punchouts in that time. I'm also good leaving Gerrit Cole behind until his HR/9 (2.31) calms down a bit.

Nonetheless, their modest viability in addition to our top options makes this a pretty stellar slate for pitching -- and a tougher one to find stacks.

Stacks to Target

• New York Yankees (5.58 implied team total)
  • Yariel Rodriguez's 39.0% flyball rate, 40.8% hard-hit rate allowed, and 13.4% walk rate precedes a Toronto Blue Jays bullpen posting the third-worst reliever xFIP (5.10) in the past 30 days. It feels like the Bombers can name their score today.
• Minnesota Twins (5.20)
  • After last night's timid affair, the Twins could get back to their long-ball ways in earnest against Chris Flexen. His 46.8% flyball rate has permitted 1.44 HR/9 for a reason, and the reeling Pale Hose bullpen has a worse xFIP over the past month than Toronto's.
• Milwaukee Brewers (4.79)
  • Mitchell Parker is another good candidate for dongs, per a 39.5% flyball rate and 39.7% hard-hit rate in one of baseball's friendlier venues for home runs. William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins are absolutely smashing lefties in this split as of late (.305 ISO or higher).
• Kansas City Royals (4.63)
  • It's looking like a bullpen day for the Detroit Tigers, which tend to go a bit overlooked in tournaments. It probably shouldn't when Detroit rocks the sixth-worst reliever xFIP over the past 30 days (4.34). Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are likely the best mini-stack as the only two with a 100 wRC+ or better on both sides of the plate in that same period.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.