MLB

FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and Helper: Sunday 8/25/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and Helper: Sunday 8/25/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to incorporate our MLB DFS projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- into your research process. numberFire also has the latest starting lineups and weather as well as heat maps to help you find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

With no pitching option above $9,500, today's options are both diverse and dicey.

I'd tab Kevin Gausman ($9,000) the odds-on favorite to be the most popular choice in cash games at home against the Los Angeles Angels. He just dropped 46 FanDuel points on the Halos two starts ago, and L.A.'s ugly wRC+ (83) and strikeout rate (25.6%) against righties in the last 30 days don't insist it was a fluke. Gausman's own 4.97 expected ERA (xERA) and 10.8% barrel rate are the main concerns with him in a season where nothing has been easy.

The lowest implied total on the slate belongs to the Colorado Rockies (3.49), suggesting success for Marcus Stroman ($7,800) on the bump for the New York Yankees. The Rockies' 27.9% K rate over the past month of play leads MLB, but we know Stroman (10th percentile in K rate at 16.8%) doesn't really aim for whiffs. As unnerving as his 4.87 xERA also is, he's likely the betting favorite for a quality start among our options. Terrifying, I know.

Nick Martinez ($9,000) will get attention against the reeling Pittsburgh Pirates. Martinez's 3.22 xERA leads all pitchers on the slate with an opposing team total below 4.50. The lone concern with him is pitching count, having topped 85 pitches just twice all season bouncing back and forth from the bullpen.

Tanner Houck and Seth Lugo have had the best seasons of pitchers on the slate, but both have implied totals north of 4.50 amidst brutal matchups with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies, respectively.

Stacks to Target

  • New York Yankees (5.51 implied team total)
    • The Bronx Bombers against a struggling lefty are almost always on the menu, so Austin Gomber is an organic fit for stacking Yanks. Gomber's xFIP (4.19) and hard-hit rate allowed (30.0%) drop considerably away from Coors Field, but he's still coughed up 1.59 HR/9 on the road, and the Rockies' bullpen (4.71 xFIP in the last 30 days) is reeling. They're a good stack but have paths to failure as most will put the salary saved at pitcher behind Aaron Judge ($5,100) and Juan Soto ($4,500).
  • Kansas City Royals (5.27) and Philadelphia Phillies (4.73)
    • The 10.0-run total here is the best on the slate with elite hitting weather. Though I figure most will target Philadelphia's Kolby Allard (4.31 xERA) of the two pitchers on name value, don't discount the Phils getting after Seth Lugo, whose 3.97 xERA, .249 expected batting average against (xBA), and 40.2% hard-hit rate are far worse than you'd think because of a 3.02 ERA. I'm leaning Philly here for game theory purposes.
  • Detroit Tigers (4.76)
    • If the slate has the Chicago White Sox, you probably want to consider stacking the other team. The lowly Tigers put up 13 yesterday. Detroit's .653 team OPS against righties in the past 30 days is awful, but Jonathan Cannon's 4.59 xERA and 1.35 HR/9 allowed aren't far from that description, and betting against the league-worst Pale Hose bullpen (4.84 xFIP in the last 30 days) is never a bad idea.

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Looking to build some MLB DFS lineups? Check out FanDuel’s daily fantasy baseball lobby to see all the offerings for today’s slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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