FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and Helper: Sunday 8/18/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to incorporate our MLB DFS projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- into your research process. numberFire also has the latest starting lineups and weather as well as heat maps to help you find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

We've got incredibly tiny implied totals on Sunday's main slate that still make pitcher a priority despite solid high-salaried stacks.

Framber Valdez ($10,600) could make for yet another day built around a Houston Astros pitcher. Valdez has topped 42 FanDuel points in five of his last six entering the sport's premier matchup for a southpaw; the Chicago White Sox's 42 wRC+ against left-handed pitching in the past 30 days is the worst in MLB by a mile. They've also struck out 25.2% of the time in those parameters.

However, an alternative to Valdez could be Shota Imanaga ($9,400), who is the other hurler with an opponent team total below three (2.74). Harsh wind at Wrigley Field is the reason why, but it's not as if Imanaga's opposing Toronto Blue Jays are lighting up lefties in the past month of play (.692 OPS). Imanaga's own 25.1% strikeout rate is awesome, yet Toronto's in this split over the past 30 days (22.9%) leaves a bit to be desired.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a bottom-seven OPS (.650) and K rate (25.2%) against righties in the past month, putting George Kirby ($10,100) on the menu for the daring. Kirby hasn't topped 30 FanDuel points in three outings, so his higher salary will definitely be contrarian on a slate with Coors Field.

To access Coors, we'll need a value arm, and I believe that could be Merrill Kelly ($8,200). At worst, Kelly's done a masterful job of suppressing hard contact (28.9% rate allowed) over his first 29.2 innings of the season and is set to battle a Tampa Bay Rays team with a .670 team OPS and 25.4% K rate in Kelly's split over the past month.

Bowden Francis ($7,600) is also worth a shout on the other side of Wrigley, and don't discount his upside with seven-plus Ks in consecutive outings.

Stacks to Target

• San Diego Padres (6.56 implied team total)
  • This side of the slate starts with accepting or rejecting the Friars against inexperienced Colorado Rockies hurler Bradley Blalock. Though Blalock's Triple-A rate of 1.08 HR/9 in Albuquerque at elevation is impressive, his MLB flyball (50.0%) and hard-hit (50.0%) rates allowed in 2.9 innings so far predict a dinger machine. I won't be fading one of MLB's hottest offenses in its best park for modest minor-league contact control.
• Houston Astros (5.50)
  • Fewer unknowns about Ky Bush make the 'Stros my favorite stack du jour. Bush's 8.73 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), 51.9% flyball rate, and 46.4% hard-hit rate allowed have all graded out terrible, and following him will be MLB's second-worst bullpen by xFIP over the past 30 days (4.91). This is a much better split for Houston against southpaws, too.
• Baltimore Orioles (4.73)
  • Another worthy challenger to the Padres, Baltimore draws Kutter Crawford's 1.76 HR/9 allowed at home, and the Boston 'pen (5.00 xFIP in the past month) is the only one worse than Chicago's. Other than the O's annoying positional monopoly of 1B/OF options, they're an awesome pivot.
• Seattle Mariners (4.33)
  • Sinkerballer Jake Woodford has let up a 42.5% flyball rate and 40.0% hard-hit rate with K upside (13.7%) we know to be poor. I actually see folks taking darts at Woodford given Seattle's season-long OPS against righties (.672), but they've heated up to a .709 mark through the deadline. I lean stacking against Woodford and another bottom-10 bullpen.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.