FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and Helper: Sunday 7/21/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to incorporate our MLB DFS projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- into your research process. numberFire also has the latest starting lineups and weather as well as heat maps to help you find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Seth Lugo ($10,800) gets the proverbial Chicago White Sox bump in salary, but he still could easily pay it off as a similar profile, Brady Singer, shut them out over seven innings on Saturday. Chicago's 75 wRC+ is tied for the worst against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, and they strike out plenty (24.6% rate) in the same parameters. I'm just concerned about Lugo's 3.93 expected ERA (xERA) and 40.7% hard-hit rate rearing their head as massive chalk.

Instead, Michael King ($9,600) seems like a worthy trade of a worse matchup for a better pitcher at a lower mark. The Cleveland Guardians have stalled to a .658 OPS against righties in the past 30 days (fifth-worst in MLB) in their elite park for pitching. Cleveland's plate discipline (20.9%) always caps the opponent in fantasy, but King's 3.69 xERA, 27.6% K rate, and 32.2% hard-hit rate allowed are all significantly above the league average.

A similar projection awaits Andrew Abbott ($9,200) in D.C. The Washington Nationals' .615 OPS against southpaws in the past month is awful, but their strikeout rate in that split (17.0%) is the lowest in the same time frame. Expect a quality outing from Abbott (3.51 xERA) without many Ks, and I'd pivot to either him or King on a Coors Field slate rather than swallow the chalk at the top.

Tyler Phillips ($8,000) has posted at least 27 FanDuel points in each of his first two starts, so he's on the radar for potential super-savers against the weak Pittsburgh Pirates offense, but beware that Pittsburgh has improved to a 104 wRC+ in his split over the past month -- roughly coinciding with the promotion of Nick Gonzales.

Stacks to Target

• San Francisco Giants (5.69 implied total)
  • Surely, S.F. will do anything at the plate one of these Coors Field games, right? Austin Gomber's 4.79 xERA and 9.8% barrel rate allowed are both awful, and the Colorado Rockies' bullpen has been on its best behavior this weekend, but the meaty underbelly (4.01 xFIP in the last 30 days) is still there.
• New York Yankees (4.89)
  • While Shane Baz's natural talent is up to snuff, he's in a brutal spot for his current results. The righty trots a 5.64 xERA and 56.5% hard-hit rate allowed (!) into a road visit of the Bronx Bombers. Yikes. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are great places to stash salary that we can't spend at pitcher.
• Atlanta Braves (4.57)
  • Atlanta is no longer a slam dunk against a weak righty, but I have to trust their boppers against Miles Mikolas. At worst, Mikolas' lack of whiff upside (16.1% rate) can prevent their swing-and-miss issues, and the veteran profiles to be a launching pad for homers behind a 38.8% flyball and 41.1% hard-hit rate.
• Baltimore Orioles (4.32)
  • I'm a bit surprised this team total is so low. Baltimore has pummeled lefties for a .202 ISO in the past month, and Andrew Heaney (45.7% flyball and 40.2% hard-hit rates allowed) is another homer-friendly profile like Mikolas. With the Texas bullpen also struggling over the last 30 (4.33 xFIP), the O's are my favorite contrarian stack today.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.