FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and Helper: Saturday 8/24/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to incorporate our MLB DFS projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- into your research process. numberFire also has the latest starting lineups and weather as well as heat maps to help you find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

I'm not one to blindly accept a top pitching option, but when you're combining ostensibly the very best pitcher in baseball into the very worst team across MLB in his split, the paths to failure shrivel quickly.

That, of course, is Tarik Skubal ($11,500), who has starred this season to the tune of a 2.83 expected ERA (xERA), .211 expected batting average allowed (xBA), 30.1% strikeout rate, and 34.6% hard-hit rate allowed. All of those marks are 80th percentile or better in baseball among qualifiers. Skubal then draws the pitiful Chicago White Sox, who sport a pitiful, league-worst .478 team OPS against lefties in the past 30 days with a 27.6% K rate.

Deviating from Skubal in tournaments comes down to the percentage chance that he gets shelled, which seems low. Even then, the alternatives aren't ideal. Pablo Lopez ($9,500) and Clayton Kershaw ($9,200) are the names that stand out and invite a different build.

Lopez has been "regress to his peripherals" guy with a 4.47 ERA that's never quite turned into a 3.56 xERA, and it's been issues with the long ball (1.40 HR/9 allowed) as to why. He's hosting the St. Louis Cardinals, and while St. Louis .698 team OPS against righties in the past 30 days is far from intimidating, they've also struck out just 17.6% of the time (fourth-lowest in MLB) within these parameters.

Kershaw, to me, is the superior argument. The opposing Tampa Bay Rays offloaded most of their talent at the deadline, so their .679 team OPS and 25.8% strikeout rate against southpaws in the past month are pretty legitimate. The Los Angeles Dodgers' franchise lefty has found his footing with just two earned runs allowed over his last 16.1 innings -- and 13 Ks.

Nonetheless, this position was a pretty quick click onto Skubal when building out my own single-entry lineup.

Stacks to Target

• Detroit Tigers (4.81 implied team total)
  • Skubal's own batters go a long way to fitting in his salary amid a sublime matchup of their own. Ky Bush's 7.30 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is awful due to hefty flyball (50.0%) and hard-hit (47.7%) rates allowed. Bush also works in front of the league's worst bullpen by xFIP (4.78) over the past month. Since we never usually stack them, Matt Vierling ($3,000), Spencer Torkelson ($2,800), and Colt Keith ($2,700) are their current top performers in this split.
• Atlanta Braves (4.72)
  • Writing up Atlanta's team total in today's MLB best bets, it's only natural to include them here. It's kind of wizardry that Jake Irvin has a 3.81 ERA with such a poor xERA (4.19), xBA (.253), strikeout rate (20.7%), HR/9 allowed (1.43), and hard-hit rate allowed (40.2%) behind it. An improving Bravos order against righties and MLB's sixth-best park for hitters could send Irvin's peripherals closer to where they belong.
• Cleveland Guardians (4.33)
  • Jon Gray is another guy whose 3.75 ERA just doesn't make much sense. He's put forth a 4.46 xERA, .279 xBA, and 42.2% hard-hit rate allowed behind it. Texas is also another struggling bullpen over the last 30 days (4.65 xFIP). The Guards' order is fairly limited save three or four names that are viable against righties, but they can fill in positional holes that the Braves and Tigers don't.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.