FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 15 Sunday Night (Ravens at Jaguars)

The Baltimore Ravens head to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in Sunday's primetime matchup. It's worth noting that we could see sustained winds nearing 15 mph, which may negatively impact passing games. According to the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, the visiting Ravens are 3.0-point favorites, and the over/under is a tidy 42.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Predictably, dual-threat Lamar Jackson ($17,000) comfortably laps the field in numberFire's projections.

While Jackson's been a more inconsistent fantasy producer than we might expect from a player who has the third-shortest odds to win NFL MVP, the ceiling remains as strong as ever. He most recently racked up 32.6 FanDuel points, marking his fourth performance of 28-plus FanDuel points this season. He leads all QBs in rushing yards, averaging 9.5 carries and 49.5 yards per game.

Now facing a defense that's given up the third-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, Jackson will assuredly be the chalk MVP play.

Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence ($14,500) and Travis Etienne ($15,500) slot in with the second and third-best projections.

Remarkably, despite suffering what appeared to be a serious ankle injury in Week 13, Lawrence not only went on to play the following game, but he's practicing in full this week.

While that's an encouraging sign for his outlook, this is a brutal matchup against numberFire's second-best schedule-adjusted pass defense. The Ravens have allowed the second-fewest FanDuel points per game to QBs, as well.

Lawrence is going through his best fantasy stretch of the season, scoring 20-plus FanDuel points in four straight, but three of those outings have been aided by rushing scores, something we can't count on from a player who runs sporadically. He's also been closer to the middle of the pack as a passer this season, ranking 15th among qualified starters in adjusted yards per attempt.

With all of this in mind, I'm more inclined to look toward Etienne over Lawrence in non-Jackson MVP lineups. The Ravens are less imposing against the run, ranking 14th in adjusted rush defense. It also doesn't hurt that they're 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target to RBs. The expected windy conditions could further push the Jaguars into a game plan that revolves around the run and short passes.

Since the Week 9 bye, Etienne has seen a slight downtick in snap rate to 65.8%, but he's still averaging a solid 13.6 rushes and 4.2 targets per game. He's earned 60.0% of the red zone carries during this stretch and has scored touchdowns in each of the last two games.

If we're selecting an MVP wideout, Zay Flowers ($13,000) looks like our best bet. Flowers is the only other player projected for double-digit FanDuel points, and he has been Baltimore's most consistent WR all season, owning a 24.3% target share, 23.9% air yards share, and 24.5% red zone share. Since Mark Andrews' injury, Flowers has scored 20.7 and 17.0 FanDuel points -- his best performances of the season.

Further helping Flowers is the matchup. Against wide receivers, Jacksonville is 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target.

Flex Breakdown

Staying with Baltimore, Odell Beckham ($9,500) is fresh off his best game of the season, turning 10 targets into 4 receptions, 97 yards, and a touchdown. Those 10 targets were tied for the most on the team with Flowers, and it's possible the Week 13 bye gave Beckham a much-needed boost after being a frequent entry on the injury report.

We shouldn't rule out Beckham as a potential MVP, as he's now reached double-digit FanDuel points in four of his last five games. However, we should also remain cautious about chasing this latest outing.

Despite all that production, Beckham logged just a 52.1% snap rate and 55.6% route rate in Week 14. While that's a step up from the weeks immediately preceding the bye, the Ravens have consistently limited his snaps throughout the season, likely in an effort to keep him healthy. Still, he's clearly doing more than enough with his snaps to warrant strong flex consideration.

Andews' direct replacement, Isaiah Likely ($8,000) is a quality value play. He has an 18.6% target share over the last two games, the team's third-best mark during that stretch behind Flowers and Beckham. The Jags have coughed up the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to TEs.

The Ravens' backfield continues to be a messy committee between Keaton Mitchell ($11,500), Gus Edwards ($10,000), and Justice Hill ($6,500). Mitchell is the most explosive of the trio and easily led the group with 62 scrimmage yards last week -- yet he did so on just 9 rushes, 2 targets, and a 33.8% snap rate.

If someone from this bunch is going to bust out for a big game, it's Mitchell, but he'll presumably have to do so on limited touches. He and Edwards project to each receive around 10 opportunities, while Hill probably can't be counted on for more than a handful at best. FanDuel Sportsbook has Mitchell's rushing yard prop set at 46.5 yards, and Edwards is at 31.5.

Of the remaining Baltimore skill position players, Nelson Agholor ($7,500) and Rashod Bateman ($7,000) are touchdown-or-bust plays. Although Bateman projects slightly better of the two, Agholor held the edge in snap rate (59.2% to 47.9%) and route rate (64.4% to 48.9%) in Week 14.

Moving on to Jacksonville, Lawrence's top pass-catchers are Calvin Ridley ($12,500), Evan Engram ($11,000), and Zay Jones ($8,000). Ridley and Engram are projected for between 7-8 targets, putting them in the same range as Flowers.

With Christian Kirk out of the picture the last two weeks, these three pass-catchers have split targets pretty evenly, combining for 72.8% of the team's targets. While Ridley and Jones are the ones who get the deep targets, it's Engram who's scored three touchdowns in this sample.

It's a tough matchup for this entire Jags passing game, but the volume is there for one or more of this trio to crack the optimal lineup when it's all said and done.

Parker Washington ($7,500) is the one other Jacksonville pass-catcher with a meaningful role. He's run 64.9% of the routes in the last two weeks and recorded a 10.2% target share.

D'Ernest Johnson ($7,000) backs up Etienne but typically hasn't seen enough work to be more than a dart throw.

Finally, unless the forecast changes, high winds could be a knock against kickers Justin Tucker ($8,500) and Brandon McManus ($8,500), and there's enough value available that they might not be a priority anyway. The quality of the QBs also lessens the interest in the defenses, though the Baltimore D/ST ($9,000) has been a top fantasy unit all year.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.