FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 14 Thursday Night (Patriots at Steelers)

We're used to our fair share of snoozefests on Thursday Night Football, but if ever there was one to pass on, it's got to be this one. While we can still squeeze out some entertainment with this single-game slate, it might be best to follow along on the phone. The Pittsburgh Steelers host the New England Patriots as 6.0-point favorites, and the total is a barely-there 30.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

According to numberFire's model, Mitchell Trubisky ($15,000) is projected for 13.2 FanDuel points, the slate's highest mark. Even by single-game standards, that's depressingly low.

Filling in for the injured Kenny Pickett, Trubisky is unlikely to lift an offense that ranks 23rd in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Across 49 pass attempts this season, Trubisky's averaged 5.6 yards per attempt -- a mark that would rank second-worst among qualified starters -- and over five games (seven starts) in 2022, he tossed four touchdowns to five interceptions.

Things look even direr facing a still feisty Pats defense. New England's offense is one of the league's worst, but the defense has been holding up its end of the bargain lately, allowing just 26 total points over the last three games. While it's mostly been against lesser competition, holding a Justin Herbert offense to a season-low six points is no small feat -- plus, it's fair to file Trubisky and this Steelers offense under "lesser competition." Overall, the defense has allowed the sixth-fewest FanDuel points per game to QBs.

Still, the reality of this slate is that Trubisky's the quarterback of a near-touchdown home favorite, and he's shown rushing upside in the past. He's the highest-projected player for a reason, as ugly as it is. Given the poor play of the Pats' offense, it isn't outlandish to envision Trubisky lucking into a touchdown or two off good field position, even if New England's defense plays well.

Pittsburgh running backs Jaylen Warren ($13,500) and Najee Harris split this backfield pretty evenly, and both are both projected for around 10 FanDuel points. However, Harris missed practice on both Tuesday and Wednesday, making him questionable to play.

If Harris is ultimately ruled out, Warren jumps out as arguably the slate's top MVP play, as he would find himself in a featured role with 20-plus touches. While the Pats are tough as nails against the run, ranking first in adjusted rush defense, that kind of volume would still put Warren in a good position to put up points, and if the offense gets some short fields as expected, he would also be the favorite to cash in with a score. Warren's also the pass-catching back of the two, giving him another avenue toward points.

In the scenario that Harris plays, that naturally puts a damper on the upside of both, but they would still fall under MVP consideration as running backs in an assumed positive game script. For what it's worth, Harris has seen 61.8% of the red zone carries in the two weeks with Eddie Faulkner calling plays (30.8% for Warren).

The Patriots' struggles on offense have been well-documented, but we've really entered dumpster-fire territory lately. New England has lost three straight games while allowing only 10 or fewer points. The last time a team did that was 1938. By numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, the Pats are 30th in total offense ahead of just the New York Giants and New York Jets.

All of this is to say it's really, really hard to back anyone on this team to lead the slate in scoring. But if someone is going to do so, it's Ezekiel Elliott ($12,000). Rhamondre Stevenson has a multi-week injury, leaving Elliott as the featured back moving forward.

With Stevenson going out in the first quarter last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, Elliott would ultimately log 17 rushes and 5 targets with a 69.4% snap rate. If the Pats' defense performs as expected, the Steelers shouldn't run away with this one, which should result in Zeke getting a similar workload and then some as the focal point of the offense.

Elliott may still struggle to exceed 100 scrimmage yards, but if he's able to punch in even on touchdown, he'll have a great chance at posting a slate-best score.

Given how bad the Patriots' offense has been, it stands to reason that we should give the Pittsburgh D/ST ($10,000) some serious consideration at MVP, too. Over the last three games, New England has coughed up 16, 12, and 17 FanDuel points to opposing defenses, none of which were as good as Pittsburgh, who are ninth overall in numberFire's adjusted rankings. It's telling that on the Thursday-Monday slate, the Steelers have the highest D/ST salary.

As a road underdog, the New England D/ST ($9,000) is a riskier MVP play than their counterparts, and it's not like they have much star power on that side of the ball, either. But this feels like exactly the kind of ugly game where a defense leads the slate in scoring, and we know Trubisky's good for a turnover or three. If nothing else, this unit is an easy sell as a value flex option.

Flex Breakdown

Diontae Johnson ($11,500), George Pickens ($11,000), and Pat Freiermuth ($9,500) are Trubisky's top pass-catchers.

Since Johnson returned in Week 7, he's led the team with a 27.3% target share and 43.8% air yards share, severely putting a dent in Pickens usage (19.2% target share and 35.2% air yards share). Johnson also has an encouraging 37.5% red zone target share and 57.1% end zone target share over this span.

While it's difficult to say how much this distribution remains the same with Trubisky under center, Johnson has been a favorite target of Trubisky's in the past. In what's likely to be a low-volume passing day, both players are unlikely to emerge as MVPs, but they're firmly in the flex conversation, with Johnson's role getting the clear nod.

Freiermuth has logged a solid 20.2% target share since his own return in Week 11. It's worth noting that much of that came from a 9-catch, 120-yard performance a couple of weeks back, but anyone with that kind of ceiling will draw our attention. Unfortunately, the Patriots have given up the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game to tight ends, though.

Allen Robinson ($7,500) remains the third wideout but is tough to recommend. He has a 6.1% target share since Johnson came back.

As of this writing, Bailey Zappe ($13,000) hasn't been officially announced as New England's starter, but he's expected to get another crack at it on Thursday.

Nothing about Zappe's play last week or at any point off the bench this season suggests he's a viable MVP play, particularly against this stout Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers are numberFire's eighth-best adjusted pass defense, and they've allowed the seventh-fewest FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks.

That said, Zappe's still projected for double-digit FanDuel points, so he remains in play as a flex. But it's pretty clear he isn't a must.

Demario Douglas is still out with a concussion, so DeVante Parker ($9,000) is the favorite to lead the Pats in targets. In Week 13, he led the way with nine targets (37.5% share) with Zappe starting. He's projected for the slate's third-most targets behind Johnson and Pickens.

JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,000), Hunter Henry ($7,500), and Tyquan Thornton ($7,000) should all play the majority of snaps, but good luck guessing who will actually make an impact. All three are projected for somewhere between 4-5 targets. Henry has the highest receiving yards prop line, but it's at just 21.5 yards.

Running back JaMycal Hasty ($5,000) could be active backing up Elliott with Rhamondre Stevenson out. However, he's barely played any snaps this season, so he's pure dart-throw material.

Assuming this matchup plays to its middling 30.5-point total, kicker Chris Boswell ($8,500) stands out as one of the slate's better value plays. It wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see this game short on touchdowns, so Boswell might need to nail only a couple of mid-to-long field goals to crack the optimal lineup.

The same theoretically goes for Chad Ryland ($8,500), but the rookie kicker has a 66.7% field goal percentage -- one of the NFL's worst marks -- and he didn't even have an attempt in last week's loss.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.