FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 13 Sunday Night (Chiefs at Packers)

The Kansas City Chiefs will have to brave the cold in Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night, though weather isn't ultimately expected to be a big factor. The NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook show the Chiefs as 6.0-point favorites, and the total is set at 42.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Predictably, the favored Chiefs dominate the top of numberFire's projections, with Patrick Mahomes ($17,500), Isiah Pacheco ($15,000), and Travis Kelce ($13,500) occupying three of the first four spots.

After averaging an elite 25.2 FanDuel points per game in 2022, Mahomes has fallen back into the pack with just 19.8 this season. While that's still good for seventh-best at the position (sixth-best if we exclude Kyler Murray's three games), he simply hasn't been the game-changer we've grown accustomed to.

Of course, much of this has to do with Mahomes' supporting cast not holding up their end of the bargain. Per Pro Football Reference, the Chiefs have a league-worst 30 drops and are one of just four teams with 25 or more. By comparison, the San Francisco 49ers have the best mark, dropping six all season.

We know Mahomes remains brilliant, so we can never rule out a spike week, no matter how frustrating his pass-catchers have been. Still, he's cracked 25 FanDuel points only twice this year, and as a player who figures to still be immensely popular, there's an argument for leaning on him more as a flex play than a chalky MVP.

Pacheco is coming off one of his best fantasy performances of the season (23.4 points), notching a pair of touchdowns versus the Las Vegas Raiders. Since Week 4, he's averaged 15.4 carries and 3.1 targets per game while seeing the majority of red zone rushes (57.1%). He logged a season-high 79.3% snap rate last week, another promising sign of things to come.

With a potential positive game script on tap versus a middling rush defense, Pacheco is firmly in the MVP running.

Kelce continues to be Mahomes' lone trustworthy pass-catcher. The star tight end has recorded a 24.5% target share, 25.5% air yards share, 25.5% red zone share, and 23.5% end zone share, ranking first or second on the team in all four metrics.

While Kelce really has just one spike week this season (29.9 points in Week 7), there isn't any reason to think more aren't coming. Against tight ends, Green Bay is 19th in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target.

Jumping to the Packers, Jordan Love ($15,000) has the slate's second-best projection behind Mahomes. Outside of Love, A.J. Dillon ($12,000) is the only other Green Bay player projected for double-digit points.

Facing a Kansas City team that's fourth in schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire, Love will have his work cut out for him. But he's coming off three straight fantasy outings of 18-plus points and is now up to the QB10 in FanDuel points per game. In fact, his 18.9 points per game is barely over a point behind Mahomes' average.

Overall, Love is still middle-of-the-pack in most efficiency metrics, though, so he could come back down to earth in what's already been a rollercoaster season. But at far lower popularity than his counterpart, there's plenty of merit to clicking on him at MVP in a game where he could be forced to play catch-up.

On paper, this sets up as a good opportunity for Dillon. Aaron Jones is trending toward sitting again, which would leave Dillon as the lead back, and the matchup checks out versus the 26th-ranked adjusted defense.

While all of that sets up nicely for Dillon, he's been consistently underwhelming even with Jones inactive or hobbled for much of the season. Dillon has scored one touchdown all year and has yet to crack 100 scrimmage yards in any week. He did log all four red zone carries with Jones out in Week 12, though, so there's theoretically multi-touchdown upside if luck goes his way.

Flex Breakdown

If there's one other Kansas City player who could sneak into the MVP running, it's Rashee Rice ($11,500), who most recently set season-highs in targets (10), receptions (8), and yards (107).

We've been waiting for Rice to break out all season, and while this last performance is incredibly encouraging, it's worth noting his snap rate (67.2%) and route rate (65.7%) weren't much different from what we've seen in recent weeks. Maybe he's the closest thing they have to an emerging No. 1 wideout, but we aren't quite there yet. Still, Rice might be on the verge of fully making the leap, and we don't want to be on the sidelines when it happens.

Justin Watson ($8,500) is the next-most reliable Chiefs pass-catcher, and then we have the usual mess between Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,000), Kadarius Toney ($7,500), Skyy Moore ($7,000), and Noah Gray ($6,000).

Over the last three games, Watson has the highest target share (19.2%) and route rate (67.6%) among their wideouts, and his 41.8% air yards share easily leads the team. It's led to just one viable fantasy performance (13.8 points off 11 targets in Week 11), but at least we know that's in his range of outcomes.

We're pretty much throwing darts when it comes to the rest of this group. MVS has had the most consistent role all year, but his drop of a potential game-winning touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles two weeks ago pretty much sums up his 2023 campaign.

Pass-catching running back Jerick McKinnon ($7,000) should be back this week. He projects for a paltry 1.3 rushes and 3.0 targets but does have three receiving touchdowns due to the rare designed pass play in the red zone.

Christian Watson ($10,500) and Romeo Doubs ($10,000) are Green Bay's top wideouts, but neither sees anywhere close to elite usage. In seven games with both playing full snaps, Watson has a 17.3% target share and 36.9% air yards share, whereas Doubs is at 15.6% and 23.6%%. Watson holds the edge in red zone target share (29.0% to 22.6%) and end zone target share (55.0% to 35.0%), but it's clear they're both the most likely options to catch a Jordan Love touchdown pass.

Jayden Reed ($11,000) is listed as questionable, but assuming he's active, we certainly aren't getting much of a salary discount on the No. 3 wideout. Even so, he has a reasonable 14.7% target share in the aforementioned seven-game sample, and he led the team with eight targets last week.

numberFire's model projects Watson, Roubs, and Reed all to get roughly 5-6 targets, so they're somewhat interchangeable if you want to let roster percentages dictate your exposure.

Dontayvion Wicks ($8,000) is another wide receiver who's questionable. Wicks didn't play last week, but he's seen a 9.5% target share in six games since Week 5.

Tucker Kraft ($7,500) is a viable value play with Luke Musgrave on injured reserve. Last week, Kraft logged a 96.3% snap rate and 81.3% route rate. That role netted him just two targets, but one was a touchdown, so the playing time could pay off again this week. KC's given up the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game to tight ends, though.

Running back Patrick Taylor ($9,500) played 48.1% of the snaps with Aaron Jones out in Week 12. The problem is it resulted in just three rushes and a target, so we probably can't expect a meaningful role even if Jones remains sidelined.

numberFire's model loves Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker ($9,000), who's actually projected for 10.0 FanDuel points. Butker hasn't missed a kick all season, and the modest over/under lends itself to a kicker finishing in the optimal lineup. The Chiefs D/ST ($9,500) has arguably been the biggest reason KC is still contending for a top seed, and Jordan Love is hardly a matchup to shy away from.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.