FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10 Thursday Night (Panthers at Bears)

It's safe to say Thursday's matchup won't have much in the way of postseason implications, as the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears come in with a combined three wins at the season's halfway point. Going by the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, Chicago is a 3.0-point home favorite, and the over/under is a middling 38.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

The biggest news entering the game is that Justin Fields is doubtful, leading to another start for Tyson Bagent ($16,000). Bagent actually tops numberFire's slate projections, which says a whole lot about this matchup.

Among quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs this season, Bagent is tied with Mac Jones for the fifth-worst mark in numberFire's Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. And in what boils down to three-and-a-half games, he's already logged six interceptions and three fumbles.

Despite those worrisome numbers, Bagent is a home favorite in a soft matchup against a Panthers pass defense that ranks 20th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics and is missing several key pieces due to injury. The rookie also rushed for 70 yards on eight carries last week, helping him to a season-high 18.8 FanDuel points, and any semblance of rushing upside will go a long way toward him leading the slate in scoring.

D.J. Moore ($13,000) is Bagent's top wideout, and while his role has remained positive sans Fields, he hasn't exceeded 60 yards in a game with Bagent under center. In three full games with the backup, Moore has seen a 22.0% target share, 34.9% air yards share, 23.1% red zone share, and 33.3% end zone share.

While it remains to be seen if Bagent is capable of bringing out the best in Moore, any wideout who's blown up for 230 yards and 3 scores -- as Moore did in Week 5 -- is automatically high on the MVP list. He's projected for eight targets, which is the second-highest of the slate.

Chicago's backfield has a fantastic matchup against a team that's 32nd in schedule-adjusted rush defense and has given up the second-most FanDuel points per game to RBs. Khalil Herbert ($10,000) was expected to be activated off IR after practicing in full this week, but it's being reported on Thursday morning that he will still miss tonight's game.

If this is the case, it should leave D'Onta Foreman ($11,500) in the driver's seat as the lead back. Following a committee backfield in Week 8, Foreman got the brunt of work in Week 9, logging a season-high 20 carries with a 59.4% snap rate. He also saw four of five red zone rushes, with the other one going to Bagent.

As slight home favorites, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Bears lean on Foreman if they take an early lead. Double-check that Herbert is inactive later in the day, but assuming he is, Foreman is one of the more exciting MVP plays.

The highest-projected Panthers are Bryce Young ($14,500), Adam Thielen ($15,000), and Chuba Hubbard ($12,500).

Young is enduring a brutal rookie campaign, coming in as the QB29 in FanDuel points per game. He's averaging just 5.5 passing yards per attempt and is one of the handful of starters who's worse in Passing NEP per drop back than Bagent. Young is coming off a three-pick game against an average-at-best Indianapolis Colts defense, too, so it's not like things are trending in the right direction, either.

The one glimmer of hope is that Young is facing the 32nd-ranked adjusted pass defense, which has led to Chicago coughing up the most FanDuel points per game to QBs. In a game where scoring could be hard to come by, that's enough to keep him relevant as a potential MVP.

That being said, if Young produces a strong fantasy performance, it's likely due to Thielen having an even better one.

Thielen has been far and away the most productive pass-catcher for Carolina, which includes cracking 22 FanDuel points three times. His team receiving role is unmatched, as he's averaged 9.5 targets per game with a 26.5% target share, 29.1% air yards share, 37.9% red zone share, and 33.3% end zone share. He's one of our better MVP choices, particularly since he should see a lower multiplier roster percentage than either QB.

In the two games since Carolina's bye, Hubbard has averaged 15.5 carries and 4.0 targets with a 65.2% snap rate as the clear lead back. He's also soaked up 70.0% of the red zone rushes over this span. While it hasn't led to amazing results in the box score, the tight spread suggests he has a reasonable chance of seeing a positive game script at least.

The Bears actually have numberFire's best schedule-adjusted rush defense, but that's offset by them also ranking 31st in adjusted FanDuel points allowed per target to RBs. Overall, Chicago's allowed the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to the position. You could do worse than riding with Hubbard.

If it isn't readily apparent by now, these are some murky MVP waters we're wading through tonight, which is why it's a good slate considering throwing the Chicago D/ST ($9,500) or Carolina D/ST ($8,500) into the multiplier slot. Make no mistake, these are bottom-tier defenses, but both signal-callers have struggled with turnovers, and weird things can happen on a short week.

Flex Breakdown

After DJ Moore, Cole Kmet ($10,500) and Darnell Mooney ($10,000) are the other top pass-catchers for Chicago. In the three full games with Bagent, Kmet's recorded a 19.8% target share and Mooney's at 15.4%. Beyond these three, no other Bears pass-catcher has earned a double-digit target share during this stretch.

Given that Kmet and Mooney are at roughly the same salary, Kmet is the preferred option. He's equaled Moore in both red zone share and end zone share with Bagent, making him a solid bet to score a touchdown, and he's fresh off a two-score game in Week 9.

For value options on the Bears, Roschon Johnson ($7,000) and Tyler Scott ($6,000) are possibilities, albeit risky ones. Johnson played just 28.1% of the snaps in Week 9, finishing with two rushes and a single target. The week prior, he did earn double-digit opportunities and even out-snapped Foreman, though, offering some hope that he gets more chances this time around. Scott has been the third wideout lately, showing a 61.4% route rate and 8.8% target share over the last three weeks.

On the Panthers, wide receiver D.J. Chark is listed as doubtful, so Jonathan Mingo ($7,500) potentially gets a boost as a value play despite underwhelming fantasy production.

Although Mingo's 14.8% target share this year is pretty meh, over the last two weeks, he's equaled Thielen in snap rate (98.5%) and actually slightly edged him out in route participation rate (97.5% to 96.3%). The absence of Chark ensures that Thielen and Mingo will be the only every-down wideouts, and playing time is often half the battle in single-game DFS.

Removing Chark from the equation should also elevate Terrace Marshall Jr. ($7,000) to a bigger role. numberFire's model projects Marshall for just under five targets, the slate's fifth-highest mark.

Hayden Hurst ($8,000) and Tommy Tremble ($6,000) will split snaps at tight end with third option Stephen Sullivan ruled out. Hurst is the better bet to make an impact, leading the team at the position in route rate (56.3%), target share (9.8%), and red zone share (17.2%) this season.

Miles Sanders ($9,500) began the year as the Panthers' lead back, but an injury opened the door for Hubbard, and Sander's been relegated to backup duties ever since returning. In Week 9, Sanders played just 25.4% of the snaps. Still, it's not like Hubbard has been crushing it as a leading man, so Sanders could be a dark horse in case a more even timeshare emerges.

This is exactly the sort of ugly game where one or both of the kickers -- Cairo Santos ($9,000) and Eddy Pineiro ($8,500) -- crack the optimal lineup. We could see winds above 10 mph, though, which could impact some longer kicks.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.