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FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Thursday 2/8/24

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Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Thursday's main slate on FanDuel features seven games, but two stick out as premier game environments.

For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map. Odds and totals via the NBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top matchups:

Other games:

Guards

Top Plays

Luka Doncic ($12,800) -- Luka Doncic is in a tier of his own among guards. numberFire projections have Doncic at 58.5 FanDuel points (FPs) tonight -- 12.0 more than the next-closest guard. The salary is tough to swallow, but there's enough value on this slate to make it work. New York is a brutal matchup all around, but they're missing some key defensive pieces tonight, namely OG Anunoby. Luka's points prop is up at 33.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Donte DiVincenzo ($8,100) -- Jalen Brunson is questionable after turning his ankle on Tuesday, so Donte DiVincenzo could see even more work than usual. According to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, DiVincenzo saw a 26% usage rate in the two previous games Brunson missed -- and that was with Julius Randle in the lineup. Even if Brunson goes, I'm not opposed to riding DiVincenzo's hot hand. He's averaged 46.7 FPs over the last five games. Meanwhile, Dallas has given up the fourth-most FPPG to opposing SGs over their last 15 games, per FantasyPros.

Andrew Nembhard ($5,400) -- Indiana traded Buddy Hield this morning, making Andrew Nembhard a lot more appealing tonight. Hield hadn't missed a game this season, but he failed to crack 15 minutes three times since the new year. Nembhard appeared in two of those three games, totaling 38.6 and 38.7 FPs in them. The Pacers have a slate-best 127.5 implied total, so we can look at Bennedict Mathurin ($5,400) as long as he's active.

Others to Consider

Devin Booker ($9,700) -- Luka's salary won't be for everyone, but Devin Booker offers similar upside at a lower salary. Though Book has lacked that slate-winning upside in recent games, tonight's matchup could right the ship. The Jazz are 25th in defensive rating over their last 15 games, allowing the third-most FPPG to PGs over that span.

Markelle Fultz ($5,800) -- Orlando's 117.75 implied total is as high as you'll see from them, and the Spurs are a top-three fantasy matchup for both guard spots. That draws me to Markelle Fultz, although Jalen Suggs ($5,500) makes sense, too.

Miles McBride ($4,700) --Wait for an official decision, but Miles McBride becomes a great salary saver if Brunson sits. Brunson has missed two previous games this season, with McBride averaging 34 FPs and 37 minutes in those contests.

Pat Connaughton ($4,000) -- Pat Connaughton started in place of Damian Lillard the last time out, notching 28.2 FPs in the process. Dame is questionable tonight, but Connaughton should see an extended run regardless with Khris Middleton already ruled out.

Wings

Top Plays

Kevin Durant ($9,900) -- Kevin Durant has as much upside as anyone on a night-to-night basis, and there's a lot to like with tonight's matchup. KD has already faced the Jazz three times this season, posting 45.3, 61.3, and 68.6 FPs against them. He's hardly been the only forward to find success against the Jazz as Utah allows the second-most FPPG to SFs and the most to PFs. Phoenix's 125.0-point implied total makes them one of the top offenses to target.

Josh Hart ($6,900) -- Josh Hart could step into a bigger role if Brunson is ruled out, but he's a strong option even if Brunson plays. He's averaging 32.4 FPPG over his last five outings. That could be his floor against Dallas as the Mavericks have plummeted to 28th in defensive rating over their last 15 games.

Jae Crowder ($4,300) -- Per numberFire, Jae Crowder is the top point-per-dollar value on the slate thanks to a 26.2-FP projection, though things could change on a busy Trade Deadline Day. He's clocked in at 40 and 39 minutes the last two games, posting 29.7 FPs in their most recent outing. With Middleton already ruled out and Lillard questionable, Crowder should be in line for another busy night. The matchup isn't as bad as it looks, either. Over their last 15 games, the Timberwolves have given up the fourth-most FPs to opposing SFs.

Others to Consider

DeMar DeRozan ($8,400) -- Bulls-Grizzlies has such a low total (216.5) compared to some of the other matchups that I'm wary to target anyone in it, but DeMar DeRozan is in a nice spot. Memphis has given up the third-most FPPG to SFs over their last 15 games, and DeRozan has notched at least 50 FPs and 24 points in four of his last six. His points prop is set at 23.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jonathan Kuminga ($7,700) -- Jonathan Kuminga is in the midst of a breakout, averaging 24.3 points in the last 11 games. He's cleared 40 FPs six times over that span and now draws a Pacers defense that's bottom-six in FP allowed to both forward spots. You want a slice of this slate-high 249.0-point over/under.

Aaron Nesmith ($6,400) -- Aaron Nesmith has been playing well (34 minutes and 33 FPPG over the last eight), but he could see a further uptick in production with Buddy Hield out of the picture. In the aforementioned three games where Hield played less than 15 minutes, Nesmith averaged 34.4 FPPG. Golden State has given up the second-most FPPG to small forwards over their last 15 games, so Nesmith has a nice ceiling.

Bigs

Top Plays

Pascal Siakam ($8,300) -- Indiana is pushing a 130.0-point implied total tonight, and the Warriors can't guard anyone right now. Over their last 15 games, Golden State has allowed the fifth-most points, sixth-most rebounds, and second-most assists to PFs. They're 24th in defensive rating over that span. Meanwhile, Pascal Siakam has posted 54.1 and 40.8 FPs in his last two outings. There's a lot to like here, even if he's eligible at only power forward. His points + rebounds + assists line is set at 33.5.

Precious Achiuwa ($6,800) -- I'll keep beating the drum for Precious Achiuwa as long as he keeps producing. In the last four games as New York's starting PF, Achiuwa has averaged 35 FPPG. He's played at least 40 minutes in all four outings, too. Even as his salary climbs, Achiuwa's numberFire projection continues to show value. He's the top point-per-dollar value among bigs tonight, projected for 40.2 FPs. It helps that Dallas is 29th in rebound rate.

Wendell Carter ($6,100) -- San Antonio hasn't been quite as fantasy-friendly to opposing bigs of late, but they've still let up the sixth-most FPPG to centers on the year. That puts Wendell Carter Jr. in play as a mid-range option. He's averaged 27.9 FPPG in 12 games since returning from injury.

Others to Consider

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000) -- Giannis Antetokounmpo carries numberFire's highest projection (59.5) tonight, though I don't love this spot considering the other options at power forward. The Greak Freak is as matchup-proof as it gets, but a ceiling game feels unlikely -- Minnesota is first in defensive rating and a top-five fantasy defense for both PFs and Cs.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,400) -- Nikola Vucevic has gone for 46.9, 43.9, and 46.2 FPs in the last three games as he continues to provide high-end production. Aside from a low total, it's hard not to like this matchup. The Grizzlies have given up the second-most FPPG to Cs over their last 15 games, ranking 25th in rebound rate over that span.

John Collins ($6,400) -- John Collins has been incredibly consistent of late, notching 30 FPs in seven of his last eight games. Utah trading Simone Fontecchio and Kelly Olynyk could drive up his usage, too. Collins has averaged 30.0 FPPG when at least one of the two missed a game this season.

Obi Toppin ($4,600) -- In tournaments, I don't mind Obi Toppin. In those three games where Hield played less than 15 minutes, Toppin averaged 26.8 FPPG. That includes a 45.7-FP outburst two weeks back but also a 1.2-FP dud last weekend. Obi becomes even more appealing if Indiana is sans Jalen Smith, who is questionable. In 15 games without Smith, Toppin has averaged 23 minutes and 21.5 FPPG.


Dive into the action with FanDuel Sportsbook's No Sweat Same Game Parlay for the upcoming Mavericks vs Knicks and Nuggets vs Lakers games on February 8th. See the promotions page for more information.

Interested in playing NBA daily fantasy? FanDuel has plenty of contest options to make every moment more. Be sure to check out the NBA betting options, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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