FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 12/4/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and a lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

Here at FanDuel Research, we'll also come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

De'Aaron Fox ($10,500) -- Averaging 49.9 FanDuel points per game, De'Aaron Fox is someone I'm looking to build around tonight. The matchup isn't great -- New Orleans allows the sixth-fewest FanDuel points per game to point guards -- but Fox is coming off a 26-point, 16-assist outing that netted 65.8 FD points. While he's rapidly approaching matchup-proof status, keep in mind that he boasts the lowest numberFire projection (46.7) among the three players salaried over $10K.

Herbert Jones ($5,500) -- Herbert Jones looks to be through his rough stretch and back to being a strong DFS player. Jones put up 32.8 and 41.4 FD points in his last two and now has eclipsed 30 in six of 11 games since returning from injury. Sacramento plays at a top-10 pace, so he should have ample opportunities to rack up stocks (steals plus blocks), of which he averages 3.2 per game.

Malik Monk ($5,100) -- We're looking for low-salary guys with high upside tonight, so I'm naturally interested in Malik Monk. Monk is quietly averaging career-highs in points (14.4), assists (4.6), threes (2.5), and three-point percentage (41%). That's translated to 26.2 FD points per game, a mark he could cruise past against a Pelicans defense allowing the fourth-most FD points per game to opposing shooting guards, per FantasyPros.

Others to Consider

Tyrese Haliburton ($11,400) -- With no Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid available in tonight's four-team slate, Tyrese Haliburton's salary has sky-rocketed. 'Hali is questionable, but I'm optimistic he's good to go. While Boston's perimeter defense is stout on paper, this game still has a 242-point total. The C's have let up the fourth-most points and second-most threes to opposing point guards, so Haliburton -- fresh off a 71.4-point outing -- has a sky-high ceiling. There's just not as much value to pick from if you have to eat his monster salary.

Kevin Huerter ($5,000) -- Kevin Huerter has two 30-FD-point games in his last three, and he's put up slate-winning nights before, notably notching 51.8 and 49.3-point nights earlier this season. New Orleans has allowed the most three-point attempts per game (40) this season, so there's at the very least a volume-based role for the sharpshooter to put up numbers tonight. Just bear in mind that he shot 6-20 in two prior games against the 'Pels this season.

T.J. McConnell ($4,800) -- He's only an option if Haliburton sits, but T.J. McConnell would be an incredible value if he nets another start. McConnell popped off for 37.9 FanDuel points without 'Hali over the weekend, and he's averaged a robust 1.3 FanDuel points per minute with him off the court for the season, per CourtIQ.

Wings

Top Plays

Jayson Tatum ($10,300) -- Jayson Tatum has been quiet (for him) over the last five games, eclipsing 50 FD points just once over that span. Still, if there was ever a bounceback spot, it would come against Indiana. To say the Pacers have been bad against opposing forwards would be an understatement. They've let up the 10th-most FanDuel points per game to small forwards and the fourth-most to power forwards. Tatum put up 48.4 in just 26 minutes against them earlier this season, so it's all systems go for Boston's No. 1 option.

Brandon Ingram ($7,900) -- I'm really interested in Brandon Ingram tonight, especially in lineups where I'm fading Tatum. BI has been incredibly consistent this season, falling short of 30 FD points just twice in 18 games. numberFire pegs him for 39 tonight, but I could see him blowing past that considering Sacramento's allowed the fourth-most FD points per game to opposing small fowards. He's long found success against the Kings, against whom he's averaged 37.1 FanDuel points across 12 games as a Pelican. That includes 39.3- and 33.3-point outings earlier this season. You won't be mad slotting Ingram into your lineup.

Sam Hauser ($4,100) -- With a 25.4-point projection, Sam Hauser is numberFire's best point-per-dollar value on the board tonight. Hauser is a little up and down coming off Boston's bench, but he's eclipsed 20 FD points in eight of 19 games and is averaging 17.2 overall. Having attempted nearly seven threes per game in November, he's the kind of low-salary, high-upside guy we're looking for in small slates and is essentially a lock if you're looking to pair Tatum with one of the superstar point guards.

Others to Consider

Buddy Hield ($5,700) -- Buddy Hield is the only player with a sub-$6,000 salary who carries a 30-point projection on numberFire. Hield has quieted down after a brief Thanksgiving renaissance, but he's still seeing a good usage rate (21.1%) for the fastest team in the NBA. Hield has attempted at least 10 shots in 11 of 18 games this season, and he's still shooting 45% overall. It's hard to project how well he'll shoot against Boston's second-rated defense, but we know the volume will be there.

Trey Murphy ($5,600) -- Trey Murphy III put up a clean 18 points (29.1 FanDuel points) in his first game of the season last week. He was limited to 22 minutes but might not need much more to be productive at this salary. Sacramento has allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points and the third-most threes to opposing small forwards, so the matchup is great. It doesn't hurt that they're also bottom-10 in three-point percentage allowed (37.3%).

Bigs

Top Plays

Domantas Sabonis ($9,700) -- Domantas Sabonis is the last of four truly elite plays tonight (alongside Haliburton, Fox, and Tatum). numberFire projects Sabonis for 48.2 FD points tonight -- a number noticeably higher than either of his prior two performances against the 'Pels this season. New Orleans held him to 29.0 and then 42.8 FD points last month, continuing his ongoing struggle versus Jonas Valanciunas. Sabonis has gone over 50 FD points once in his last eight games against Valanciunas, but he's also gone under 40 just once over that span. Although he remains a high-floor option, I do think the other guys in his salary range have more upside.

Jonas Valanciunas ($6,300) -- I don't want to rely too much on head-to-head samples, but Valanciunas has given the Kings a lot of trouble this season. He's averaged 12.5 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in two matchups with them, totaling 78.3 FD points in the process. Sacramento has been average against opposing centers in fantasy, but they're 20th in rebound rate and have given up the fifth-highest field goal percentage (66.3%) inside five feet. He's a nice contrarian play opposite the highly-rostered Sabonis.

Harrison Barnes ($4,900) -- Talk about consistency. Harrison Barnes put up 23.8 and 25.6 FD points in two previous matchups with New Orleans, and he's settled between 20 and 27 points in six of his last seven games. He hasn't sniffed 30 after a 42.8-point effort in the season-opener, but Barnes' ability to fill up a stat sheet should keep him in play at a sub-$5,000 salary. He fits in well with De'Aaron Fox-led lineups.

Others to Consider

Zion Williamson ($9,200) -- Zion Williamson has proven to be a matchup nightmare for Sacramento in two prior games against them, averaging averaging 43 FD points per game while shooting 69% from the floor. Still, Zion is someone I've found difficult to fit into my lineup tonight. While he has obvious upside (two games with 50-plus FD points), he's coming off 29.3- and 35.5-point efforts, and the Kings had otherwise been decent against bigs.

Obi Toppin ($5,300) / Aaron Nesmith ($4,600) -- I'm interested in whoever's starting at power forward for the Pacers. While Boston is top-six in fantasy points allowed to the position, Indy's league-leading pace and offensive rating make this an enticing spot given both of the salaries. Obi Toppin has put up 32.9 and 42.4 FD points in his last two games but is questionable. If he sits, Aaron Nesmith is a value pivot. He's averaged 24.8 FD points in eight games where he played at least 25 minutes.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.