FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Friday 10/27/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and a lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

Here at FanDuel Research, we'll also come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

The Slate and Key Injuries

We're back and roaring with an 11-game slate and practical usage data from every team this season. It's a tremendous feeling.

Unsurprisingly, the injury report is pretty light with the season so new. The biggest name on it is likely Darius Garland of the Cleveland Cavaliers. He played through his hamstring issue on Friday but is questionable tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Jarrett Allen (ankle) is out again, too.

Nicolas Claxton (ankle) will miss tonight's game against the Dallas Mavericks, and Cameron Johnson (calf) is questionable. The Brooklyn Nets' frontcourt could be a source of value.

The Memphis Grizzlies were without Santi Aldama (ankle) in their opener, and he'll sit again tonight as they host the Denver Nuggets. Luke Kennard also picked up a concussion in Wednesday's game and will not be available for the Grizz.

The other eight games are fairly clean outside of a few probable listings or insignificant bench pieces, so let's dive in.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

• De'Aaron Fox ($8,400)
  • Wednesday's game for the Sacramento Kings profiled as a top contest to stack, but Harrison Barnes obliterated it with 33 points to squash most other Kings. Not expecting a repeat, I'll turn to Fox at this salary when he posted a handy 44.5 FanDuel points per 36 minutes last year in an identical floor situation.
• Fred VanVleet ($7,000)
  • I expected the high-volume guard to come out of the gates hot with his new Houston Rockets club, but he took just five shots in the first half and missed four of them. He canned three triples in the second half, and I'm expecting more aggression against the San Antonio Spurs on Friday at this lower salary.
• Scoot Henderson ($5,500)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers had to punch above their weight on Wednesday in L.A., and Scoot was clearly not at his best facing his known idol. Still, with Scoot logging 36 minutes in a blowout, I expect the athletic guard to show why he was the second overall pick today against the Orlando Magic.
  • He's one of the better value plays on the slate with guaranteed run regardless of score -- and it can't get much worse than being down 26 after three quarters like Portland was on Wednesday.

Others to Consider

• Stephen Curry ($9,600)
  • I didn't expect the addition of Chris Paul to have such an impact, but CP3 started for the Golden State Warriors and handled the ball with nine assists to Curry's one.
  • At $9,600, Steph's salary is below his 2022-23 median mark, but he is a risky proposition for counting stats given that shift despite an excellent game environment against Fox and the Kings.
• Jalen Brunson ($8,000)
  • It speaks volumes he was in the vicinity of needed production for this salary on Wednesday against a tough Boston Celtics defense.
  • Against the Atlanta Hawks, expect closer to his 2022-23 TS% (59.7%) than what we saw on Wednesday (35.0%).
• Darius Garland ($7,300)
  • Garland may or may not suit up, but if he does, he's definitely the Cleveland guard to target following Donovan Mitchell's massive salary increase.
  • Mitchell used five stocks (steals plus blocks) to score big on FanDuel, but his usage rate (25.3%) was nearly identical to Garland's (25.0%).
• Jalen Suggs ($4,600)
  • The Magic's backcourt will be a frustrating "hot hand" situation all year, but this salary is low enough to hope Suggs earns his playing time in a solid matchup with Portland.
  • Cole Anthony had a 75.1 TS% on Wednesday to Suggs' 33.1%. Those numbers could easily flip in a nightly situation next to Markelle Fultz ($5,800), who is also a quality salary-saving option.

Wings

Top Plays

• Kawhi Leonard ($8,500)
  • The Utah Jazz are who the aforementioned Harrison Barnes torched on Wednesday, so I like the wing scorers for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. With no concerns about availability, Leonard and Paul George ($8,500) are at perplexing salaries given that both averaged more than 50 FanDuel points per 36 minutes in Wednesday's blowout.
• Tyler Herro ($6,500)
  • Pat Riley wanted Herro to take a leap scoring, and Herro tried in the opener. Herro's 30.4% usage rate and 24 shots led the team, but he made very few of them. Even in a meh enviornment with Boston, he's got a five-digit-salary scoring role if more shots start falling.
• Ziaire Williams ($3,900)
  • With minimal injury news, there aren't many sub-$5,000 plays who are appealing, but Williams likely tops 30 minutes tonight with Kennard out. He's not a scoring threat (11.7% usage on Wednesday), so there's limited upside, but a couple of stocks will have him in a good spot to reach requisite value.

Others to Consider

• Zach LaVine ($7,000)
  • The Chicago Bulls' situation is basically identical to last year, and we targeted the lowest salaried of their star trio in 2022-23. LaVine posted just 21.4 FanDuel points on Wednesday but grades out incredibly well in numberFire's projections tonight entering a matchup with the Toronto Raptors.
• Jaylen Brown ($6,900)
  • Boston's new big four might be similar to Chicago's big three where we're just buying salary dips with four capable scorers. This salary is nearly $2,000 below Brown's 2022-23 median, but his usage rate (18.5%) was also way down on Wednesday from last year.
  • He's a capable stock threat (1.50 per 36 minutes last year), so I'll have him in lineups tonight on the off chance his usage increases.
• Jalen Williams ($5,800)
  • We're scrounging for value anywhere we can find it today, so it's hard to beat Williams' full-time role when he averaged 33.7 FanDuel points per 36 minutes last year.
  • He did that with just an 18.7% usage rate, so the addition of Chet Holmgren might impact him less than OKC's other scorers.
• Dillon Brooks ($4,500)
  • The enigmatic guard was strangely efficient with 5-for-7 shooting in Wednesday's blowout loss to Orlando.
  • Like his former teammate, Ziaire Williams, we don't have a plethora of value plugs available to us to turn down full-time players at this low of a mark.

Bigs

Top Plays

• Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,200)
  • The foul trouble that Triple J dealt with on Wednesday is no fluke for him, but fading him could be devastating if he avoids it. He averaged 51.8 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Ja Morant off the floor last year.
  • More court time for Jackson on Friday could also reduce the impact we saw in the opener from Desmond Bane and Xavier Tillman -- both of whom got massive salary increases.
• Evan Mobley ($7,600)
  • We're re-racking another chalk big from Wednesday here with Mobley. With Allen sitting, Mobley averaged 42.3 FanDuel points per 36 a year ago. He took just 11 shots and only grabbed 6 boards in the opener; that simply was the low end of outcomes for both marks in a single-game sample.
• Day'Ron Sharpe ($5,000)
  • If we have "injury" value, it's Sharpe, but he still got a bump from FanDuel to $5,000. Only rookie Noah Clowney can play center for Brooklyn behind Sharpe, so we're likely getting 30-plus minutes from an athletic big who posted 41.1 FanDuel points per 36 a season ago.
  • Potential foul trouble is a bit of a concern, but the odds he smashes the slate are far, far greater.

Others to Consider

• Victor Wembanyama ($7,500)
  • Foul trouble caused by two crafty Dallas Mavericks guards spoiled Wemby's debut, but there's still a non-zero chance he just accumulates FanDuel points in ways we've never seen before. He still grabbed 3 stocks in 23 minutes; it's safe to assume he could grab 10-plus stocks in multiple games this year.
  • The friendly matchup with high-paced Houston could allow for them to be piled up in bunches.
• Deandre Ayton ($6,800)
  • We like Orlando's backcourt -- and Paolo Banchero ($7,300). Why not buy Ayton's salary dip like we are with Scoot's? He took only four shots in a weird matchup with the Clips but still complied 12 rebounds. I'm projecting him as a walking double-double this season in Portland.
• Kevon Looney ($5,400)
  • With Draymond Green out for a bit, we can still go to Looney despite a dud on opening night. He logged 27 minutes to 20 for Dario Saric ($4,200), and Sacramento was gashed on the glass (47.2% rebounding rate) by Utah.
• Jabari Smith ($5,400)
  • In a game we enjoy, I prefer Wembanyama to Alperen Sengun ($7,500) despite numberFire's affinity for both. Turning to Smith as a value play makes plenty of sense as a result.
  • Smith's summer-league leap didn't bear fruit in an overall clunker for Houston on Wednesday, but I'm still hopeful for increased scoring and efficiency in 2023-24 for the former No. 3 pick.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.