FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Friday 1/26/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Luka Doncic ($12,300) -- Tonight's Dallas Mavericks-Atlanta Hawks clash has a slate-high 244.5 over/under, and there's enough value elsewhere that I can stomach Luka Doncic's huge salary. Despite Luka struggling with Atlanta in previous matchups, they're the kind of team we want to target -- bottom-five in defensive rating but top-five in pace. Doncic could get a slight bump with Kyrie Irving ($9,500) questionable, too. In 14 games without Kyrie, Luka averaged 64.6 FanDuel points (FPs) via a 36.3% usage rate, according to RotoGrinders' Court IQ. I do think he's in a tier of his own compared to the other guards; his 58.7-FP numberFire projection is over six more than the next-closest guard, and he's one of the two players on tonight's slate to crack a 55-FP projection.

CJ McCollum ($7,900) -- Don't let the Oklahoma City Thunder's fourth-rated defense scare you off C.J. McCollum tonight; a 239.5 over/under and 1.5-point spread is a lovely combination for fantasy production. The Thunder have been middle of the pack against guards this season, and McCollum torched them for 51.7 FPs in an earlier matchup. He's one of a few mid-range guards worth getting to.

Andrew Nembhard ($5,100) -- Last night, for the second straight game, Andrew Nembhard started ahead of and played more minutes than T.J. McConnell ($5,500). Nembhard notched season-high marks in points (19), shot attempts (15), and FanDuel points (33.4), so he's one of my favorites tonight. Truth be told, both Nembhard and McConnell are viable given the matchup. This Indiana Pacers-Phoenix Suns bout has a 243.5 over/under, and the Suns give up the seventh-most FPs to opposing PGs, per FantasyPros.

Others to Consider

Donovan Mitchell ($10,100) -- Donovan Mitchell gets a rematch with the Milwaukee Bucks. He averaged 52.3 FPs in three prior matchups with them, and they're bottom-10 in FPs allowed to both guard spots. Michell offers similar upside to Luka but at a friendlier salary.

Bradley Beal ($7,500) -- Bradley Beal notched 42.9 FPs last night, and he has a good chance to stay hot against a Pacers team that's 27th in defensive rating but second in pace. numberFire projects Beal for 36.8 FPs, the most among sub-$8,000 guards.

Dennis Schroder ($5,900) -- No Immanuel Quickley for the Toronto Raptors tonight. That should bump Dennis Schroder into the starting five in a game with a 236 over/under.

Markelle Fultz ($5,400) -- Markelle Fultz sat on Monday, but he'll likely return to the starting lineup against the Memphis Grizzlies -- a team that's given up the fifth-most FPs to opposing PGs.

Wings

Top Plays

Kevin Durant ($9,800) -- I won't argue with building around Kevin Durant tonight -- not when he's up against the Pacers. Sure, KD was held to 12 points last night, but he still managed 42.5 FPs and had a pair of 40-point games in his previous two outings. Tonight's a good spot for a bounce back -- Indiana has given up the sixth-most FPs to SFs and the most to PFs. KD should be a huge part of Phoenix's slate-leading 124 implied total.

Jalen Johnson ($7,700) -- Trae Young (concussion) is questionable, but we can turn to Jalen Johnson even if he plays. Johnson's averaged 37.1 FPs through 12 January contests, and he exceeded 40 FPs in two of his last three. With a high over/under, numberFire projects Johnson for 34.6 FPs tonight. That could be on the low end of the spectrum, as the Mavs are just 21st in defensive rating and give up the fifth-most FPs to PFs.

Terance Mann ($4,500) -- Terance Mann is one of my favorite salary-savers tonight. Despite a deep Los Angeles Clippers roster, Mann has consistently hovered around 25 minutes this season. He's notched 20 FPs in three straight games -- an attainable mark with the Raptors on deck. Toronto has plummeted to 25th in defensive rating over their last 15 games. They've given up the fifth-most FPs to SFs over that span.

Others to Consider

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,400) -- Averaging 25.4 FPs per game this month, Bogdan Bogdanovic offers a safe floor against a Mavs team that allows the third-most FPs to SGs. There's upside for more if Trae Young is out.

Tim Hardaway ($6,200) -- Pay attention to Dallas' injury report -- if Kyrie sits, I'm interested in Tim Hardaway Jr.. He's averaged 29.5 FPs and a 27.1% usage rate in 14 games without Irving while the Hawks are bottom-10 in FP allowed to SGs and SFs.

John Konchar ($5,600) -- John Konchar has started four straight games for the Memphis Grizzlies, notching 30 FPs in each of the last two. The most recent of those came against the Miami Heat, so I'm not that worried about tonight's matchup with the Orlando Magic.

Aaron Nesmith ($5,100) -- Aaron Nesmith continues to outproduce his salary in a starting role for Indiana, notching 29.1 FPs last night. Phoenix isn't a great matchup for wings, but the game environment is there.

Bigs

Top Plays

Alperen Sengun ($9,800) -- The Charlotte Hornets held Alperen Sengun to 35.4 FPs when they squared off in November. I don't think they'll have as much luck tonight. Sengun has been on a roll of late, averaging 57.7 FPs over his last three games. Charlotte, meanwhile, has been a Charmin ultra soft matchup for bigs. They're dead-last in defensive rating, 26th in rebound rate, and give up the fourth-most FPs to Cs. He's the only part of this 223.5 over/under that I'm interested in.

Pascal Siakam ($7,700) -- Pascal Siakam had his best game as a Pacer last night, notching 54.6 FPs in a triple-double effort. The Suns have been strong against PFs, and they've climbed inside the top 10 in defensive rating this month. However, a high total and Indy's status as a home underdog makes me bullish Siakam can have another big game tonight. His 39.6-FP projection makes him numberFire's second-best point-per-dollar value on the slate (as of Friday afternoon).

Thaddeus Young ($4,800) -- Thaddeus Young opens up a lot of fun lineup possibilities given his sub-$5,000 salary. He went for 34.2 FPs in Toronto's most recent game -- his fifth 20-FP outing since entering the rotation eight games ago. The Clippers are a tough matchup, but they've slipped to 20th in defensive rating over their last 15 games. Over that span, they've given up the eighth-most FPs to opposing PFs.

Others to Consider

Jarrett Allen ($8,300) -- After a 21-point, 12-rebound effort against Milwaukee on Wednesday, Jarrett Allen has now gone for at least 20 points and 12 rebounds in all three matchups with the Bucks this season. Averaging 48.1 FPs in those games, he's in another good spot to produce in the regular season finale.

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,100) -- For as good as OKC's defense is, they continue to be soft inside. Over their last 15 games, they've let up the ninth-most FPs to Cs and rank just 22nd in rebound rate. That opens the door for a Jonas Valanciunas ceiling game. He went for 38.8 FPs when they squared off in November.

Wendell Carter ($6,500) -- Wendell Carter Jr. hasn't missed a beat since returning to the lineup, averaging 31 FPs over his last five games. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have gotten bullied underneath, allowing the sixth-most FPs to Cs over their last seven games. He's a solid mid-range pivot away from Sengun.

Georges Niang ($4,700) -- Continue to take advantage of Georges Niang's low salary while you can. Cleveland's stretch-four torched this Milwaukee team for 41 FPs last week, but he's followed that up with a trio of 20-FP outings. Milwaukee has given up 124.2 points per game this month, so there are plenty of shots to go around for Cleveland.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.