START YOUR OWN WINNING STREAK

Player Image
SportsBookLogo
Chevrons Texture
MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 9/6/23

Subscribe to our newsletter

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 9/6/23

We have a six-game main slate on Wednesday night, and a familiar face headlines our list of pitchers. One of our usual top offenses leads the way for stacks, too, but after that, some teams we look to less often are in appealing matchups.

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

When Spencer Strider ($12,300) starts, he's the top pitching play more often than not, and that's even more so on a smaller slate where the other top arms are in difficult spots.

But that salary is now up above $12,000, making it that much harder to roster the top batters -- and that's especially the case if you're looking to stack his teammates.

Still, his 38.0% strikeout rate remains head and shoulders above everyone else, and in his last start, he logged at least nine Ks for the 20th time in 27 outings this year. He continues to lead all qualified starters in xFIP (2.87) and SIERA (2.76), as well.

While there isn't anything special about his matchup versus St. Louis Cardinals, the Cardinals have a slate-low 3.43 implied team total, and Strider has proven he can rack up the punchouts against anyone. As of this writing, no other team has an implied total below four runs.

Following Strider, we see Max Scherzer ($10,400) and Justin Verlander ($9,500) as the big names directly below him in salary, and they're the only two other guys above $9,000.

The only problem? They're up against one another in a game that features a pair of potent offenses.

Tonight, Scherzer is the only pitcher other than Strider with an above-average strikeout rate (28.8%), and if we narrow that down to just his six starts with the Texas Rangers, the number jumps to a tantalizing 33.6%. He's scored over 40 FanDuel points in five of those six outings, including a season-high 64 points.

Unfortunately, Houston Astros' active roster has the league's third-lowest strikeout rate (20.1%) versus right-handed pitching, making this a tough spot for a ceiling performance. But on a slate lacking high-strikeout pitchers, Scherzer is firmly in play, and even at his salary, we get some pretty good savings off Strider.

Truth be told, Verlander's posted underwhelming peripheral numbers, so I don't love rostering him against an offense like Texas. Despite his 3.34 ERA, the 40-year-old has recorded a concerning 4.54 SIERA, and his 21.0% strikeout rate is his worst mark in years. Were this anyone else, he would be an easy pass.

Yet he's still capable of coming through with the occasional gem, such as a recent start versus the Boston Red Sox where he produced nine Ks over six scoreless innings for 55 points. Including that performance, he's been feast or famine since rejoining Houston, logging a strikeout rate above 29% in three starts while dropping below 14% in the other three.

At this stage in his career, he may not have it every night, but the upside still seems to be in there somewhere, keeping him on the radar despite the difficult opponent.

The top value plays aren't super exciting, but Clarke Schmidt ($8,800), Kyle Gibson ($8,600), and Patrick Sandoval ($8,000) all have some potential.

Schmidt and Gibson have both experienced mixed results, but their advanced metrics show them to be more or less league-average pitchers, which is enough for them to come through in plus matchups against the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels, respectively. Both of these offenses' active rosters have strikeout rates north of 24% against righties, and they also have two of the night's lower implied team totals.

The left-handed Sandoval has lackluster season-long numbers and a difficult matchup against a Baltimore Orioles lineup that will feature mostly righties. However, since the start of June, he's posted a respectable 4.22 xFIP, 23.4% strikeout rate, and 47.2% ground-ball rate, all of which line up with how he performed in 2022. A 12.3% walk rate over that span shows that the bump in upside has come with wildly inconsistent results, though.

Hitting Breakdown

As we've often seen lately, the Atlanta Braves have the slate's highest implied team total (5.57) in an inviting matchup against Dakota Hudson.

Hudson has an excellent 52.5% ground-ball rate -- and that's where the good news for him ends. While his results haven't been terrible, a 5.08 SIERA, 13.9% strikeout rate, and 8.9% walk rate don't hold up under scrutiny, and regression could come swiftly against these vaunted Braves.

The right-hander sees a bump in grounder versus lefties (58.8%), but he's a low-strikeout pitcher against both sides of the plate, so we should stack any of the usual favorites on Atlanta. Pairing this group with Strider will be difficult, but we do see some lower-order value through Eddie Rosario ($2,900), Orlando Arcia ($2,800), and Michael Harris II ($2,900).

A combination of temperatures in the 90s and some modest starting pitchers have the New York Mets and Washington Nationals combining for a slate-best 10.5-run over/under in DC. Both teams have plenty of low salaries if you're rostering Strider, too.

The Mets are facing Joan Adon, who's been lit up in two of his last three starts. Outside of not walking a lot of guys, Adon hasn't done much to impress over his seven games in 2023, entering the night with a 4.60 SIERA and 19.0% strikeout rate, and a massive 44.8% fly-ball rate leaves him wide open for home runs.

Pete Alonso ($4,000) is the prime candidate to knock one out, and Francisco Lindor ($3,700) brings power-speed upside with 26 bombs and 25 stolen bases. Brandon Nimmo ($3,100), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,300), and D.J. Stewart ($2,600) have enough power to punish Adon and will have the platoon advantage. Francisco Alvarez ($2,700) is coming off a quiet August, but he has a .225 ISO this season and knocked out his 22nd dinger last night.

Right-hander Jose Butto probably won't pitch deep into this game, but given how he's performed this year, the Mets might not want him to anyway. Across four MLB appearances this season (two starts), Butto's put up a 6.35 xFIP, and in 19 Triple-A starts, his xFIP is still an ugly 5.77. Showing neither strikeout ability nor control at either level, even the light-hitting Nats could put up some crooked numbers.

It's hard to pick out any standouts on Washington, but leadoff man C.J. Abrams ($3,100) could be the only hitter above $3,000 tonight. In addition to Abrams, Keibert Ruiz ($2,600) and Travis Blankenhorn ($2,700) will have the platoon advantage and bat in the top half of the lineup. Blankenhorn had a .254 ISO in Triple-A before getting called up last week.

Rounding things out, the New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals, and Chicago White Sox have plus matchups against Matt Manning (5.14 SIERA; 15.8% strikeout rate), Touki Toussaint (16.0% walk rate), and Jordan Lyles (2.04 home runs per nine innings), respectively.


Looking to build some MLB DFS lineups? Check out FanDuel’s daily fantasy baseball lobby to see all the offerings for today’s slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

Subscribe to our newsletter

Want more stories like this?

Sign up to our newsletter to receive the latest news.

Newsletter Signup
Newsletter Signup