FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 8/30/23

Wednesday's main slate checks in at just six games, and it has a good balance of quality pitching and enticing hitting matchups. But the headliner has to be a Coors Field game that's showing a massive over/under.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

If we're ignoring salary, you don't have to look very long at tonight's pitching selection before settling on Gerrit Cole ($11,100) as the top option in a plum spot versus the Detroit Tigers. Cole continues to be the favorite to win the American League Cy Young, per FanDuel Sportsbook, and the Tigers have far and away the slate's lowest implied team total (3.28).

But on a night when Coors Field is showing a 13.5-run over/under, shelling out the dough to roster Cole becomes a bit more complicated. While that keeps Cole from being a clear-cut first choice tonight, his ceiling in this matchup shouldn't be in question.

Cole's fresh off an 11-strikeout performance against the Tampa Bay Rays, and his 27.0% strikeout rate is one of the slate's best marks. He's been one of the league's most consistent arms, leading the league in quality starts (19) and ranking fourth in innings pitched.

While Cole has been allowing more home runs since the All-Star break -- an area he was expected to regress -- this isn't an opponent where we're worried about that. The Tigers are a team we've attacked often this year, and their active roster comes in the sixth-worst wRC+ (91), fourth-worst ISO (.151), and seventh-worst 24.5% strikeout rate versus righties. There's no question Cole is a strong candidate to lead this slate in scoring.

Jesus Luzardo ($9,600) may not have a value salary, but dropping $1,500 from Cole could go a long way in certain builds. Luzardo's 27.9% strikeout rate leads the slate, and he has a high-strikeout matchup against the Rays, so it's not like we're skimping on upside, either.

The left-hander does come with more risk, though. After a streak of scoring 50 or more FanDuel points in four straight starts earlier this summer, he's since been all over the place, posting 12, 61, 20, 28, -5, 5, and 49 points in the last seven outings. He also rarely exceeds 100 pitches in his appearances, and the Rays are a much more challenging opponent despite their whiffs. Against lefties, Tampa Bay's active roster has the third-worst strikeout rate (25.3%) but also has the eighth-best wRC+ (116).

But if Luzardo can keep the ball in the park, he absolutely has the ceiling we need to take down a tournament. It's also worth noting that despite his ups and downs, his 3.66 SIERA is actually better than Cole's 3.69.

Zach Eflin ($10,000) is the one other guy with a salary above $9,000, and while his strikeout rate (25.7%) is a smidge below the previous two, he actually leads this trio in both SIERA (3.37) and walk rate (3.5%). But much like Luzardo, Eflin's pitch counts tend to be unpredictable, and his recent results have also been a bit of a rollercoaster.

His matchup against the Miami Marlins is a mixed bag, as well. Although Miami's active roster carries a modest 95 wRC+ against right-handers, they aren't an exciting draw when it comes to punchouts (21.1%).

Overall, it still feels worth it to get up to Cole when possible, and then Luzardo gets a slight nod over Eflin.

But as noted before, we'll need to spend down if we want to really take advantage of some of tonight's best stacks, so that could mean turning to Dane Dunning ($7,700).

Dunning's season-long numbers don't really move the needle, but in his five August starts, he's produced a 2.85 xFIP and 31.0% strikeout rate that includes two performances with double-digit Ks. That being said, the 28-year-old was all over the place in his most recent start (six walks), and his 20.8% career strikeout rate makes it highly unlikely that this recent surge in punchouts will continue.

But if there ever were a slate to roll the dice on a small sample, it might be this one. While this isn't an ideal matchup versus the New York Mets, the Mets have a mediocre 4.34 implied team total despite the wind blowing out at Citi Field.

Hitting Breakdown

The Atlanta Braves lead this section for the third time this week, and hitter-friendly winds at Coors Field have their implied team total at an otherworldly 7.97.

Left-hander Kyle Freeland will have a difficult time keeping these Braves off the board. Among qualified starters, only teammate Austin Gomber has a worse strikeout rate than Freeland (14.7%), and when you pair that low strikeout rate with a 41.0% fly-ball rate, it's easy to see Atlanta sending a few balls into the outfield seats.

Those punchouts dip even further when Freeland faces righties (13.3%), and the vast majority of this Braves lineup will be hitting from that side. Like the past two nights, though, everyone is fair game.

Ronald Acuna Jr. ($5,200) has the highest hitter salary on the slate, and we aren't getting any lefty-lefty discount from Matt Olson ($4,800), either. Travis d'Arnaud ($3,400), Orlando Arcia ($3,300), and Kevin Pillar ($2,900) are the only projected starters with salaries below $3,700, showing why this stack will be so tricky to pair with the top pitchers. But if nothing else, it could be well worth targeting some of Atlanta's stars as one-offs.

The Los Angeles Dodgers may not have an implied team total exceeding eight, but 5.31 will still get our attention.

Right-hander Brandon Pfaadt has really struggled with the long ball, allowing 2.01 dingers per nine innings over 13 starts. While he's performed much better lately and has likely gotten unlucky with some of those home runs, we're still talking about someone with roughly a 21% strikeout rate and 30% ground-ball rate against both lefties and righties.

The Dodgers are the type of team that can punish those kinds of numbers. Mookie Betts ($4,500), Freddie Freeman ($4,100), Max Muncy ($3,600), and Will Smith ($3,400) are the priorities as always, and then we can look to the low-salaried outfielders for value.

The Texas Rangers are another potential way to pivot away from the Braves.

Denyi Reyes has spent the majority of the season in Triple-A, but he'll be making his third start of the season tonight. It's safe to say the first two didn't exactly go smoothly, as he allowed a combined 10 earned runs across 5 2/3 innings with a 14.3% strikeout rate and 14.3% walk rate. Both of those outings came against the Braves, so perhaps Reyes would normally be given a pass -- except he also has a 5.97 xFIP in the minors this year.

It's easy to like Corey Seager ($4,000) if you can afford his services -- he leads the team with a .300 ISO -- and Adolis Garcia ($3,700) and Marcus Semien ($3,600) are always wise additions to Texas stacks. Mitch Garver ($3,000) and Jonah Heim ($2,900) also have nice pop if you need to dip into the value range.

For other stacks, the Colorado Rockies are in play as the less popular side at Coors, and the Pittsburgh Pirates could be worth versus what's expected to be a bullpen game for the Kansas City Royals.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.