FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 10/3/23
The MLB wastes no time getting its postseason starts, as the Wild Card round gets rolling on Tuesday at 3:08 pm ET. Unsurprisingly, these four opening games are littered with strong pitching, so finding matchups to exploit for stacks will be difficult.
Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.
Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.
Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
Of Tuesday's expected starters, Kevin Gausman ($10,500) and Tyler Glasnow ($10,100) are the only two arms with five-figure salaries, but it's warranted because they're also the two with the best strikeout rates. Gausman wrapped up his season with a 31.1% strikeout rate, whereas Glasnow has an even better 33.4% clip.
Gausman is facing the Minnesota Twins, which is by no means a cupcake matchup -- these are the playoffs after all -- but if he's at his best, he has perhaps the clearest path to leading the slate in punchouts. The Twins' active roster has a scary 116 wRC+ versus right-handers, but they also come with a league-worst 26.7% strikeout rate.
Glasnow is in a tough spot versus the Texas Rangers, but he profiles as the night's top overall talent. In addition to that elite K rate, the right-hander put up a 3.08 SIERA over his 21 starts, and his 51.2% ground-ball rate was a career-best.
In terms of upside, it's hard to go wrong with one of these two.
Zack Wheeler ($9,600), Pablo Lopez ($9,300), and Jesus Luzardo ($8,500) are also quality options.
While the Miami Marlins aren't a great matchup for Ks, they're one of the weaker overall offenses left. Wheeler might be able to go seven-plus innings, which is typically what we need for him to post a big score. This season, he was tied for third in quality starts (21). The Marlins have a slate-low implied team total (3.40).
Lopez is intriguing against the Toronto Blue Jays. That's because the right-hander was lethal in same-handed matchups with a 2.82 xFIP, 33.0% strikeout rate, and 5.3% walk rate. If he's able to neutralize the likes of George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette in the top half of the order, he could be in for a big performance.
Luzardo looks like our best value choice. Similar to the aforementioned Twins, this is a boom-or-best matchup for the lefty versus the Philadelphia Phillies. When facing southpaws, Philadelphia's active roster pairs a .208 ISO with a 25.0% strikeout rate.
His pitch counts have been up and down, but he went 100 pitches in his final outing, so perhaps the Marlins will be fully unleashing him this postseason. Luzardo wrapped up his regular season campaign with a 3.69 SIERA, 28.1% strikeout rate, and 7.4% walk rate, which is an attractive line for someone at such a low salary.
Lastly, Corbin Burnes ($9,800) is coming off a weird season that showed flashes of the greatness we've come to expect but was also underwhelming at times. His underlying numbers are hard to get behind when his salary is barely below Glasnow. Still, the Arizona Diamondbacks are just average versus right-handers, so we can't rule out a tournament-winning outing at what could be a lower roster percentage.
Hitting Breakdown
On a four-game slate, let's face it, every offense is pretty much in play, but the best matchups have to go to the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays.
Unlike the vast majority of teams, the Diamondbacks aren't able to go with their ace in Game 1, and rookie Brandon Pfaadt is nowhere close to being one yet. This sets the stage for the Brewers to excel.
While the Pfaadt's 4.28 SIERA was significantly better than his 5.72 ERA, he's been plagued by a home run problem that wasn't entirely a fluke. That's what will happen when you combine a 22.3% strikeout rate and 32.3% ground-ball rate and then stir in a big helping of hard contact.
Pfaadt gives up long balls to both sides of the plate, but his xFIP is slightly higher versus lefties (4.73), so Christian Yelich ($4,000) and Carlos Santana ($3,000) get a bump. Otherwise, William Contreras ($3,200) and Willy Adames ($2,900) are the top righties, and Josh Donaldson ($2,600) still has some pop lower in the order.
Tampa is facing Texas left-hander Jordan Montgomery, a good real-life pitcher who we wouldn't think to attack on a larger slate, but his 21.4% strikeout rate is the worst of the day. We'll naturally want to attack him with righties, against whom he's put up a 4.20 xFIP and 40.4% ground-ball rate this season.
Montgomery isn't someone who gives up a ton of dingers, but the Rays could have a full lineup of righties and will have their chances to make contact. Yandy Diaz ($3,700), Randy Arozarena ($3,600), and Isaac Paredes ($3,300) are fresh off strong regular season campaigns and should all bat high in the order.
After that trio, most -- if not all -- the other Rays starters will come in at salaries of $3,000 and below. Jose Siri ($3,000) is expected to make the roster after being out several weeks, and his .272 ISO makes him appealing if he starts.
Finding a third pitcher to attack with any confidence is difficult, but rostering the Philadelphia Phillies against Jesus Luzardo feels better than most of the alternatives. Luzardo is elite in lefty-lefty matchups, but when facing righties, he's allowed 1.24 home runs per 9 innings off a 46.8% fly-ball rate.
Between Trea Turner ($3,700), Nick Castellanos ($3,500), J.T. Realmuto ($3,100), and Alec Bohm ($3,000), we have a solid group of right-handed batters to work with. Of course, power lefties Bryce Harper ($4,000) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,900) always deserve inclusion in case they can knock one out against Miami's bullpen.
Corbin Burnes was surprisingly less effective in same-handed matchups this year (4.34 xFIP; 22.3% strikeout rate), so the Arizona Diamondbacks' righties could also make a little noise. If nothing else, Christian Walker ($3,600) can be rostered as a one-off.
Looking to build some MLB DFS lineups? Check out FanDuel’s daily fantasy baseball lobby to see all the offerings for today’s slates.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.