FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 9/7/23

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

It's a weird pitching slate as there are no true standout options. We have two top-notch pitchers going -- Max Fried ($10,600) and Luis Castillo ($10,300) -- but neither has a good matchup, with Fried facing the St. Louis Cardinals, a team that boasts some right-handed pop, while Castillo gets the Tampa Bay Rays.

Over the course of his career, Fried has been a better real-life pitcher than DFS producer due to a lack of elite strikeout numbers. He's more or less been the same guy in 2023, compiling a 3.29 SIERA and 25.8% K rate across 60 2/3 frames. He has, however, punched out at least eight in three of his six starts since coming off the IL.

As for Castillo, the matchup stinks, as the Rays' active roster sits third in wOBA against righties (.341). But with a 15.0% swinging-strike rate, Castillo can deliver against any lineup when he's on, and Tampa's 3.59 implied total is a number we can feel good about.

After those two, I'm most interested in Carlos Rodon ($7,400).

Yes, he's struggled. And, yes, the Detroit Tigers aren't as bad against southpaws (21st in wOBA with the ninth-lowest strikeout rate). But Rodon's K prop is at 5.5 (with a -136 number on the over), and Detroit's implied total is a measly 3.61, meaning oddsmakers are backing him today.

On top of that, Rodon is starting to show some signs of turning it around, recording a 23.2% strikeout rate over his past five outings. Plus, the salary savings are huge on a slate where we want to stack the Atlanta Braves against Adam Wainwright.

Griffin Canning ($9,200) is worth a mention. He's got legit numbers this year, including a 26.8% strikeout rate and 13.1% swinging-strike rate. He draws a double-edged-sword matchup in the Cleveland Guardians, a team that packs very little punch versus righties (23rd in wOBA) but barely strikes out (lowest K rate). I'll mostly pass on Canning, but he could slip through the cracks and pop as a GPP play.

Hitting Breakdown

I already alluded to the top stack -- it's Atlanta against Wainwright.

Wainwright has been one of baseball's worst starters in 2023. Atlanta has been baseball's best offense in 2023. The result is a Coors-like 6.19 implied total for Atlanta, and it's going to result in the Braves being super chalky tonight.

I'm not going to rattle off all the stacking options for Atlanta because it's every hitter in their lineup. I will, however, highlight Eddie Rosario ($2,800) as a stellar value play. Rosario has a 38.1% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage and is projected to hit sixth.

The next-best implied total belongs to the Chicago Cubs. They've been handed a 4.71 clip for their date with Ryne Nelson, a righty who has pitched to a 5.23 SIERA and 15.2% strikeout rate in 125 MLB innings.

There's a chance the Cubs' top sticks go a bit overlooked tonight if everyone spends all their salary on the Braves' bats.

Cody Bellinger ($4,000) is the best of the bunch, and he's been incredible in the second half, registering a .415 wOBA and 43.7% fly-ball rate since the break. I also love Mike Tauchman ($3,000) in this matchup. He's a pinch-hit risk if he sees a lefty later in the game, but Tauchman usually bats leadoff versus right-handers and owns a .362 wOBA at home versus righties this year.

The New York Yankees (4.39 implied total) are a viable stacking option, as well. They've been much better against southpaws and will take on Eduardo Rodriguez tonight in the Bronx. In the split, New York has put up the second-highest fly-ball rate (40.6%) with the fifth-best hard-hit rate (34.9%).

Aaron Judge ($4,300) is +250 to go deep, and Giancarlo Stanton ($3,000) is easy to like at his modest salary. Anthony Volpe ($2,600) is a fun value target who has picked it up of late, amassing a .372 wOBA in August.

Also, if you are fading Rodon at pitcher, it's not a bad idea to throw a dart at a couple of Tigers bats -- particularly Spencer Torkelson ($3,300) and Javier Baez ($2,500), two guys who will have the platoon advantage against Rodon.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.