FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 9/28/23

Of Thursday night's 10 starting pitchers, we can arguably split them down the middle between five we want to roster and five we want to attack. Just one has a salary above $10,000, too, leaving us plenty of wiggle room for our bats.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Jesus Luzardo ($9,700) feels like the logical starting point at pitcher, as he leads the slate in strikeout rate (27.7%) and the opposing New York Mets have a slate-low implied team total (3.54). Luzardo's fantasy scores are a bit of a roller coaster, but he's scored 46-plus FanDuel points in three of his last six starts, and this Mets team is below average versus southpaws.

Outside of one being a lefty and the other being a righty, Jordan Montgomery ($10,200) and Chris Bassitt ($9,500) have practically identical profiles as low-strikeout hurlers who tend to be better in real life compared to DFS. Both pitchers have punchout-boosting matchups that put them in the running tonight, but Bassitt has the lower salary and better overall spot against the New York Yankees.

Bassitt's main issue has been dealing with lefty power this year, something this Yankees lineup lacks these days. He also benefits from a massive workload when he's dealing, getting all the way up to 110 pitches twice in the last five games, so we could see him go 7-8 innings in a critical game for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Montgomery will take on a solid Seattle Mariners lineup that badly needs a win and will presumably load up on righties. However, the southpaw has held his own versus right-handed batters this season and has logged three seven-inning quality starts in a row -- one of which came against these same Mariners last week.

Given the alternatives, Logan Gilbert ($8,900) might normally be the top play tonight at this salary, but his matchup against the Texas Rangers is tough to get behind. Still, his 24.6% strikeout rate is the slate's third-best mark, and his 4.8% walk rate is elite. Although Gilbert was shelled by these Rangers last week, Texas' 3.66 implied team total is among the night's lowest.

If Gilbert's opponent scares you, David Peterson ($8,600) is another value option. Despite his ugly ERA, Peterson has a very respectable 3.94 SIERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, and 54.8% ground-ball rate. The trouble is a 9.9% walk rate and a massive 45.4% hard-hit rate. The risks are clear, but he's recorded 8, 4, 8, 10, and 7 Ks over his last five, so there's some boom-or-bust potential here against the Miami Marlins.

Hitting Breakdown

The Los Angeles Dodgers get to take their hacks at Coors Field again tonight, this time boasting a 6.67 implied team total versus Chris Flexen.

Like always, we should be happy to roster any and all Dodgers hitters in a spot like this, but it's actually the righties who will have the biggest advantage. In same-handed matchups, Flexen has a 5.75 xFIP and 12.3% strikeout rate, and he's allowed an absurd 2.82 home runs per 9 innings. Guys like Mookie Betts ($4,900) and J.D. Martinez ($4,500) are worth their lofty salaries.

The Atlanta Braves are a top stack again -- I know, shocking -- but Marcus Stroman might be able to offer up a bit more resistance than Flexen.

However, Stroman has made just three appearances -- two out of the bullpen -- since coming off the injured list this month, and he went just 64 pitches last week. Even if the right-hander performs well, this could quickly turn into a bullpen game regardless.

But that isn't to say the Braves can't knock out Stroman early by themselves. The righty may have a 57.4% ground-ball rate, but a 20.7% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate could quickly lead to baserunners for Atlanta.

The Toronto Blue Jays may very well have as good a matchup as the Dodgers -- minus the Coors Field effect, of course.

Luke Weaver continues to meander from team to team, most recently latching on with the Yankees. But it's easy to see why he hasn't stayed put anywhere; a 4.72 SIERA, 18.9% strikeout rate, and massive home run problem (2.03 per 9 innings) have a way of doing that.

We can comfortably attack Weaver with both lefties and righties, and other than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,600), we can roster everyone else in the lineup at mid-to-low salaries.

The Colorado Rockies are terrible, but it's Coors Field, so you never know. Taking a few swings at a stack against Ryan Yarbrough makes some sense. The Chicago Cubs might be the preferred play as a fourth stack, though.

The Cubs will face rookie AJ Smith-Shawver, who's getting called back up from Triple-A. While Smith-Shawver has only thrown 21 2/3 MLB innings with a fairly even split between lefties and righties, it's already looking like it's the former who really have his number. When facing lefty sticks, the right-hander has posted a 7.12 xFIP, 17.6% strikeout rate, 15.7% walk rate, and 64.7% fly-ball rate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.