FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 9/21/23

A trio of aces headline this slate, and it's the one with the lowest salary who stands out the most. And the Atlanta Braves are playing tonight, so you can probably guess which offense is the top stack.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Gerrit Cole ($11,500) may be the runaway favorite to win the American League Cy Young, but he isn't this slate's top play.

That honor goes to Tarik Skubal ($10,300), who not only comes at a much lower salary but has a cupcake matchup versus the Oakland Athletics.

And even if we set all that aside, you could argue that Skubal's been the better pitcher lately anyway.

Over 13 starts, the southpaw has amassed a 2.99 SIERA, 30.7% strikeout rate, 4.7% walk rate, and 52.0% ground-ball rate. He's been a bonafide ace and could be only getting better after logging nine Ks in three of his last four starts.

The A's will almost certainly counter with a righty-heavy lineup, but that's of little consequence. Skubal's strikeout rate actually goes up against right-handed batters (34.5%). If you're using just one pitcher tonight, it's Skubal.

Of course, Cole is favored to win the Cy Young for a reason. Since the All-Star break, he's logged an excellent 3.15 xFIP, 29.3% strikeout rate, and 4.8% walk rate. He should also have a slight workload advantage over Skubal, as the latter has maxed out at 97 pitches, whereas Cole pretty regularly hits triple-digits.

This matchup is neutral at best against the Toronto Blue Jays, but the 33-year-old is expected to get the job done. Toronto's 3.28 implied team total is practically identical to Oakland's 3.26.

Lefty Max Fried ($10,600) tends to be a better real-life pitcher than one we turn to for DFS, but he'll twirl a gem here and there, much like we saw a few starts ago against the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers (61 FanDuel points). His 25.3% strikeout rate would probably regress closer to the 23-24% range over the long haul, but he's also armed with an elite 5.9% walk rate and 56.7% ground-ball rate.

He's up against the Washington Nationals, a lineup that suppresses punchouts but is otherwise weak in just about everything else. If Fried is at his best, it wouldn't be shocking to see him throw seven-plus innings of shutout ball. Note that he did skip his last start due to a blister, and while he should be fine, it adds some risk in case the issue reemerges mid-game.

Lefties Ranger Suarez ($9,300) and David Peterson ($7,900) are lower-salaried options.

Outside of a solid 48.9% ground-ball rate, Suarez has average season-long numbers, but he's quietly scored 40 or more FanDuel points in three of his last four outings, including a 10-strikeout performance against the Miami Marlins. He should be able to take advantage of a New York Mets lineup that's pretty meh toward the bottom these days.

Peterson comes in with a 25.3% strikeout rate and has recorded at least 8 punchouts in three of his last four. His 55.4% ground-ball rate is an asset, as well. However, his 9.9% walk rate could quickly get him into trouble against a Philadelphia Phillies team loaded with power, so we probably shouldn't go overboard here.

Hitting Breakdown

The Atlanta Braves are facing a low-strikeout pitcher in right-hander Jake Irvin, so it's no surprise to see them showing by far the highest implied team total (5.44).

Irvin is mediocre in same-handed matchups, but it's downright ugly when he faces lefties. In that split, he owns a 5.67 SIERA, 16.9% strikeout rate, and 10.8% walk rate. He's also given up 2.03 home runs per nine innings to lefty sticks off a 44.4% fly-ball rate and 40.9% FanGraphs hard-hit rate.

Matt Olson ($4,400) and Ozzie Albies ($3,800) are two of the slate's top overall plays, and Eddie Rosario ($2,900) and Michael Harris II ($3,200) get a bump as lower-salaried options.

The Baltimore Orioles are expected to face call-up Hunter Gaddis, who's made sporadic appearances at the big league level this season.

But it's easy to see why the right-hander hasn't stuck with the Cleveland Guardians' roster for longer stints. Across 39 innings this year, he's put up a 5.79 SIERA, 13.5% strikeout rate, and 26.9% ground-ball rate. This guy looks like a home run waiting to happen.

Against left-handed batters, Gaddis' 7.28 xFIP and 7.9% strikeout rate should have us flocking to Gunnar Henderson ($3,800) and Anthony Santander ($3,300), and then Adley Rutschman ($3,400), Cedric Mullins ($3,200), and Ryan O'Hearn ($3,100) are others who will benefit.

The Los Angeles Dodgers' matchup is a wild card against rookie southpaw Kyle Harrison, who will be making just his sixth MLB start.

The 22-year-old dazzled with an 11-strikeout performance in late August, but he's mostly struggled ever since. His 27.1% strikeout rate could be for real after mowing down Triple-A batters at a 35.6% clip -- but he also put up a worrisome 4.99 xFIP and 16.3% walk rate at that level.

In all, I'm inclined to side with the elite offense. In a limited sample, Harrison hasn't logged a single strikeout versus lefties yet, so despite the lefty-lefty spot, Freddie Freeman ($4,300) and Max Muncy ($3,600) could be big winners.

The Chicago Cubs should also be on our radar; opposing righty Johan Oviedo has produced an uninspiring 4.90 SIERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, and 10.4% walk rate over 30 starts in 2023.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.