FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 10/19/23

The MLB postseason schedule once again aligns the two Championship Series on one day, with the first game beginning at 5:07 pm ET. All four teams are down to their third or fourth pitching options, which could make this one of the better hitting slates of these playoffs.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

This isn't exactly the cream of the crop taking the mound tonight between Ranger Suarez ($9,800), Brandon Pfaadt ($8,700), Jose Urquidy ($8,300), and Andrew Heaney ($7,500). The good news is we won't need to allocate a lot of resources at pitcher.

None of these pitchers are likely to have high pitch counts, either, making this all the more tricky. According to the MLB odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, all four have their strikeout props set at just 3.5.

Pfaadt is expected to face only 18 to 22 batters, which means he would need to be pretty perfect to put up a worthwhile fantasy start. In the NLDS, he was pulled after just 42 pitches despite pitching 4 1/3 scoreless innings.

Heaney is a poor bet to go many frames, too. In his lone postseason appearance, he logged 3 2/3 innings and 56 pitches in the ALDS. He also recorded just one strikeout in that game, which isn't exactly an exciting development.

Even Suarez, who has easily the highest salary, has maxed out at 69 pitches in his two playoff starts. Urquidy went 82 pitches in the ALDS -- sadly, a massive number for this group -- but he also has the worst regular-season metrics of the four.

Oof.

I guess if we're picking one guy, it's probably Suarez, who's facing the weakest of the four offenses, the Arizona Diamondbacks, and has a high ground-ball rate to help him pitch efficiently. In the regular season, the southpaw logged a 48.5% ground-ball rate, and he's bumped that to 54.2% in his two playoff outings. The D-Backs have a slate-low 4.37 implied team total.

If we're holding our nose to pick another guy, Urquidy is probably our best choice, strictly because he's the most likely to actually go five or six innings.

Urquidy produced a dreadful 5.24 SIERA and 16.4% strikeout rate in the regular season, though much of that can be attributed to him missing a good chunk of it to injury. If we look at his career numbers, he's closer to league average, which would put him in a similar neighborhood as tonight's other starters.

He rose to the occasion in the last round, allowing just 2 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings with 6 Ks in his lone start. This is a brutal spot against the Texas Rangers, but going five innings with minimal damage might be enough on this slate.

Hitting Breakdown

Considering everything I laid out at pitcher, it's pretty clear that not a whole lot separates the four hitting matchups, particularly with the bullpens likely coming into play early on.

Therefore, it might be as simple as prioritizing the hottest team, the Philadelphia Phillies.

With Kyle Schwarber ($3,700) joining the home run parade, we now have five Phillies with multiple dingers this postseason. Those five are Bryce Harper ($4,500), Trea Turner ($4,100), Nick Castellanos ($3,800), Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto ($3,400). All five are producing Statcast hard-hit rates above 45% and only Realmuto is below 50%.

Schwarber and Harper predictably have the shortest odds to hit a home run of the group, but as a whole, they also make up five of the six shortest homer odds in the Phillies-Diamondbacks game. This is a fun core to build a stack around, and guys like Bryson Stott ($3,000), Alec Bohm ($2,900), and Brandon Marsh ($2,600) give us plenty of value to work with, too.

The Texas Rangers have the highest implied team total (4.84), which suggests that oddsmakers aren't buying Urquidy's last outing and think he will revert back to his regular-season struggles.

Corey Seager ($4,600) and Adolis Garcia ($3,900) continue to be the top Texas options, and they have the team's best odds to hit a home run. Marcus Semien ($4,000) has just 6 hits in 35 at-bats this postseason, so he's tough to pay up for these days, but he's still hitting leadoff and is a bet-on-talent play.

Evan Carter ($4,000) is more difficult to recommend at this salary, as most of his production came at the start of the postseason, and he's likely playing over his head. Still, as long as he's hitting in the heart of the order, he can't be ignored entirely. His 44.4% postseason hard-hit rate is third on the team.

Texas' leader in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate? It's actually Josh Jung ($3,400), who's fresh off a two-dinger night. Mitch Garver ($3,100) has been quiet in the ALCS, but his home run odds are better than Jung's, showing respect for his power.

Between the remaining two teams, it wouldn't be shocking to see the Houston Astros do work against Heaney and friends. Yordan Alvarez ($4,400) will probably be the most popular play of the entire slate, but fade him at your own risk. Kyle Tucker ($3,500) continues to make a lot of hard contact and is coming off his best postseason fantasy outing. Jose Abreu ($3,000), Michael Brantley ($2,700), and Jeremy Pena ($2,800) give us viable low-salaried options, as well.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are arguably the least exciting offense, and Suarez doesn't allow many home runs as a ground-ball pitcher. But they also may see lower roster percentages, so we can invest in Corbin Carroll ($4,300), Christian Walker ($3,900), and Ketel Marte ($3,600). Evan Longoria ($2,500) is striking out like crazy but has made hard contact on 11 of his 13 hits. He has the second-best odds on Arizona to hit a home run, which is telling.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.