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FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 7/29/23

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo•@holla2mlo

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FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 7/29/23

Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process.

Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Team
Opp SP
Opp
O/U
Moneyline
Implied Total
TEXYu DarvishSD91523.96
MILBryce ElderATL9.51803.99
BOSAnthony DeSclafaniSF8-1084
CHWLogan AllenCLE9.51164
SFJames PaxtonBOS8-1084
TBHunter BrownHOU8.51164.02
KCBailey OberMIN9.51564.15

Pitchers

Aaron Nola ($9,900)

At his highest salary point in July, Philadelphia's right-hander will take the mound against a Pittsburgh Pirates' offense with a 27.9% K-rate and a .300 weighted on-base average (wOBA) in this split.

Through his most recent 45.1 innings, Nola has really found some momentum after struggling in the first half of the season, recording a 3.12 expected Independent Fielding Pitching rating (xFIP), a 12.4% swinging strike rate, and six or more strikeouts in 71% of his appearances.

When considering Nola's recent form and his effective splits against right-handed hitters 3.43 xFIP and a 25.1% K-rate in 2023), the 30-year old veteran has an ideal matchup to obtain his slate-high 32.7 fantasy projection versus five spots in Pittsburgh's expected lineup with strikeout percentages ranging from 20.9% to 29.8%.

Yu Darvish ($9,800)

After a 2% decrease to his second highest salary since All-Star Break, Darvish will have a revenge opportunity against a Texas Rangers' team with a .304 wOBA and a 25.6% strikeout percentage.

In his last five starts despite recording a 4.94 Earned Run Average, the 36-year old has outperformed this particular metric when observing his 4.18 xFIP, 23.6% K-rate, and a 11.2% swinging strike rate through 27.1 innings.

With positive regression heading his way, Darvish has a great spot to reduce his misleading ERA against four Rangers batters with K-rates over 25.3% and weighted on-base averages lower than .311.

Hunter Brown ($8,500)

At a salary ranked eighth at his position, Houston's rookie is an intriguing mid-salary option against a Tampa Bay Rays' unit with a 22.9% K-rate at his second lowest salary point this month.

While some may be concerned about Brown's recent struggles and his current 4.19 Earned Run Average, the 24-year old's expected statistics and performance related metrics reveal a promising profile including a 3.16 xFIP, a strong 27.5% strikeout percentage, and a 3.50 Skill Interactive Earned Run Average.

Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers

In a great spot versus Luke Weaver, the Dodgers rank as today's top offense with a 6.12 expected run total against a low strikeout right-hander with a poor 4.99 xFIP and horrid splits against left-handed bats (5.44 xFIP, 9.6% walk rate).

To best attack Weaver's main weakness, potential Los Angeles stacks should group together any of their left-handed power bats including Freddie Freeman (12.5% barrel rate, .420 expected wOBA), Max Muncy (18.5% barrel rate, .375 expected wOBA), David Peralta (.339 expected wOBA, .294 expected average), Jason Heyward (9.0% barrel rate, .324 expected wOBA), or James Outman (9.9% barrel rate).

Colorado Rockies

Heading into Saturday with plenty of momentum after scoring 24 runs in their last four games, the Rockies will look to sustain their offense against Oakland's ground-ball dependent (40.4%) right-hander Paul Blackburn.

While the 29-year old was able to get off to a quick start this season, Blackburn's performance has experienced a sharp decline in his last four appearances when observing his recent 5.20 xFIP, 16.9% strikeout percentage, and 12.0% walk rate.

Due to Blackburn's strong ability to keep the ball on the ground, Colorado combinations should feature their top fly-ball hitters from either side of the plate including C.J. Cron (27.0% fly-ball percentage, 16.0% barrel rate), Ryan McMahon (12.1% barrel rate, 27.9% fly-ball percentage), Nolan Jones (12.4% barrel rate, 30.0% fly-ball percentage), and Mike Toglia (35.3% fly-ball percentage, 6.9% career barrel rate)

Oakland Athletics

After an impressive eight-run performance in Coors Field, the Athletics remain an optimal choice for stacking with a 5.95 expected run total against Chris Flexen.

In his first season with the Rockies, Flexen has been put in a horrible spot to make his debut after the former KBO star produced a poor 5.23 xFIP and a 9.7% walk rate in 42.0 innings earlier this season with the Seattle Mariners.

Core Oakland stacks should lean towards their best right-handed bats to take advantage of Flexen's unique reverse splits (.367 wOBA, 5.13 xFIP) with main targets including Brent Rooker (.337 expected wOBA, 14.2% barrel rate), Zach Gelof (13.3% barrel rate), and Ramon Laureano (10.0% barrel rate).


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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