FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 7/31/23

The biggest thing to watch entering tonight's slate will be the weather at Coors Field. The San Diego Padres have a head-turning 6.61 implied team total, yet thunderstorms could lead to a possible postponement. This may ultimately be a risk-versus-reward spot, as you could end up with a bunch of zeroes if it doesn't play, or you might be able to roster the Padres at low roster percentages if it does.

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Tyler Glasnow ($10,600) has gotten better and better since he returned in late May, entering the day with a 34.8% strikeout rate over 11 starts. If Glasnow had enough innings to qualify, that would be the league's second-best mark behind just Spencer Strider.

While lower workloads and control issues limited Glasnow's ability to pitch deep into games initially in 2023, curtailing his fantasy outputs, we've seen him become a more consistent performer since around late June, scoring 48, 41, 38, 46, 46, and 52 FanDuel points over his last six starts.

Across this span, Glasnow's dominated with a 1.94 xFIP, 38.2% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate, and 58.0% ground-ball rate. Those are elite marks across the board, and with him routinely logging pitch counts in the mid-to-high 90s, the best may be yet to come.

He's facing the New York Yankees, a team that packs much more punch with Aaron Judge back but still rates as roughly a neutral matchup overall. With Glasnow firing on all cylinders, he's the night's first choice.

Corbin Burnes ($10,400) recorded just six punchouts in his last start, but he otherwise performed well against the Cincinnati Reds, a team he was facing for the third time in his last four starts. July has easily been his best month in 2023, producing a 3.04 xFIP and 34.4% strikeout rate across five straight quality starts.

The Washington Nationals always present a mixed bag as a matchup, owning one of the league's lowest strikeout rates while simultaneously being near the bottom in both home runs and walks. Burnes does have a surprisingly-high 28.9% strikeout rate versus lefties this year, though, which could give him a leg up when facing this lefty-heavy lineup.

If Burnes is still unable to rack up a ton of Ks, we'll probably need to see him log seven or eight scoreless innings to contend for the night's top score -- but that's definitely in his range of outcomes.

Andrew Abbott ($10,800) has the slate's third-best strikeout rate (27.8%), and winds should be blowing in slightly at Wrigley tonight, potentially helping him keep the ball in the park against the Chicago Cubs. That's particularly notable for someone like Abbott, who has a 56.7% fly-ball rate.

The Cubs can field nearly an entire lineup of right-handed batters, which could hamper the lefty's chances of a ceiling game. Abbott's 1.90 ERA is significantly lower than all his 4.05 SIERA, pointing to regression, too.

Glasnow and Burnes feel like safer bets at slightly lower salaries, but the possibility of even a minor wind advantage is intriguing for Abbott, and he figures to be the overlooked arm of this trio.

For a value play, Nick Pivetta ($8,000) is someone to consider at a significantly discounted salary compared to the top options. After flourishing in a bulk reliever role for much of the summer, Pivetta is actually expected to make a traditional start tonight against the Seattle Mariners.

The pros and cons of Pivetta are pretty clear. His 29.4% strikeout rate trails just Glasnow tonight, and since being used almost exclusively as a long/bulk reliever from June 18th onward, he's put up a ridiculous 44.0% strikeout rate. While he should theoretically be able to carry that over as a starter again, that can't be guaranteed.

His highest pitch count in July has maxed out at 87 pitches, so we probably can't expect him to go much more than 90 pitches, either.

Finally, we have a long enough track record of Pivetta as a starter to know that walks and home runs have been career-long problems, and a small stretch of strong play isn't likely to erase all that.

But anyone exhibiting this kind of strikeout potential has to be on our radar, and the Mariners' active roster has a 25.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching.

One other guy to have in mind is Charlie Morton ($9,400), who could be in a good spot depending on what the Los Angeles Angels' lineup looks like tonight. Assuming trade additions C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk aren't available, we might get a pretty whiff-happy Angels lineup to attack.

However, even if that comes to pass, Morton's strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff this month (17.5%), making him more of a wild card at best.

Hitting Breakdown

As noted as the top, the San Diego Padres have the highest implied team total by a country mile, but they could also get rained out.

They're facing left-hander Austin Gomber, owner of a 5.75 xERA and 4.98 SIERA with a 15.4% strikeout rate and a terrible home run problem (1.83 allowed per nine innings). Gomber hasn't even performed well against lefties, so both sides of the plate could feast.

Along with the weather, further complicating matters is that top options Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,500) and Manny Machado ($4,000) have giant salaries, and even Juan Soto ($4,100) isn't seeing a discounted mark despite the lefty-lefty spot. Outside of those three, just about everyone else in the lineup is in the lower $3,000 range, though, with Gary Sanchez ($3,300) being our best mid-range power bat.

Ultimately, we'll have to take a wait-and-see approach to determine whether going here is worth the risk. But that reward could be huge if this one is able to start and finish.

The Atlanta Braves are the only other team with an implied team total comfortably over five runs (5.78), so they could end up being the chalk stack if the forecast in Colorado doesn't improve.

The Braves' high total says more about their loaded offense than their matchup versus Griffin Canning. Canning is by no means a poor pitcher, coming in with a 3.84 SIERA, 25.5% strikeout rate, and 7.0% walk rate.

But the right-hander has also struggled to keep the ball in the park over his young career and is allowing 1.70 home runs per nine innings this season. Given that he has a ninth-percentile Statcast hard-hit rate (45.7%) in 2023, this doesn't appear to be a fluke.

Tonight in Atlanta, temperatures are expected to near 90 degrees and the wind will be blowing out, further putting the right-hander in a tough situation.

Like always, this Atlanta lineup can be stacked from top to bottom, but Canning has pretty consistently struggled with righty power, so Ronald Acuna ($4,700), Austin Riley ($3,800), Sean Murphy ($3,700), and Marcell Ozuna ($3,300) are among the priorities.

The Houston Astros are another headliner, facing a fading Noah Syndergaard. Not only does Syndergaard have poor marks across the board, but he also hasn't made an MLB start since the beginning of June due to a lingering blister issue.

A move to the Cleveland Guardians isn't likely to change Syndergaard's fortunes. With an average fastball velocity that's close to five MPH lower than his career average, his strikeout rate is down to 15.4%, and he's been rocked for 1.95 home runs per nine innings.

The right-hander has particularly struggled to get lefties out (5.08 xFIP), so it's the perfect time to jump in on Yordan Alvarez ($4,000) and Kyle Tucker ($3,600) before rounding things out with Houston's usual righties. Jeremy Pena ($2,600) remains locked into the two-hole, making him an appealing value play.

The Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, and San Francisco Giants are other offenses in nice matchups.

The Brewers face right-hander Jake Irvin, who has a 5.10 SIERA, 18.3% strikeout rate, and 9.8% walk rate this year. While Domingo German has solid underlying numbers, he hasn't been able to keep the ball in the park (1.74 per nine innings), and this is a park factor bump for Tampa Bay. Pinch-hitting risks aside, the Giants are in a great spot at home against Ryne Nelson, who is tied with Gomber and Syndergaard for the slate's worst strikeout rate.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.