FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 10/23/23

With the ALCS extending to a Game 7, both series are still going on Monday, giving us one final multi-game DFS slate for the year. The NLCS resumes at 5:07 pm ET and is followed by the ALCS at 8:03 pm ET.

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Aaron Nola ($10,300) is the only arm with a five-figure salary, and it's well-deserved after scoring 40, 44, and 49 FanDuel points across his three postseason starts. During this run, he's produced a 2.60 SIERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, 2.9% walk rate, and 57.4% ground-ball rate.

The opposing Arizona Diamondbacks have by far the day's lowest implied team total (3.48). Nola is an easy top choice.

Of the other three, Merrill Kelly ($9,200) feels like the most trustworthy of the bunch, though perhaps that's not saying much in playoff baseball.

Kelly coughed up three home runs (four earned runs) in Game 2, but he also shut down the Los Angeles Dodgers over 6 1/3 scoreless innings in the previous round. Control remains a concern for the right-hander, but he's also managed a respectable 23.9% strikeout rate over his two starts.

For as frightening as this Philadelphia Phillies offense has been this postseason, they've still struck out 24.4% of the time, which is second-highest among the teams still alive behind Arizona (25.9%).

Cristian Javier ($9,600) and Max Scherzer ($8,200) feel like they have the widest range of outcomes.

Javier may have a 1.69 ERA over his two playoff outings, but a .130 BABIP and 5.45 xFIP suggest that he's been more lucky than good. He was particularly fortunate to throw five scoreless innings in the ALDS despite issuing five walks. The good news is he also racked up nine punchouts in that game, helping him to a 27.9% clip this postseason.

The righty pitched well down the stretch, so a strong outing can't be ruled out against the Texas Rangers. However, Javier's combination of strikeouts, walks, and fly balls make him a boom-or-bust play.

Lastly, Scherzer got rocked in Game 3, but that isn't entirely shocking given that it was his first start since September 12th. Mad Max produced a 28.0% strikeout rate during the regular season and had his share of dominant stretches, so he can't be crossed out entirely. Still, it's quite possible he's just not 100%, and the Houston Astros are a brutal matchup for strikeouts to begin with.

Scherzer is the riskiest of the four, especially when considering the Rangers won't hesitate to remove him at the first sign of trouble in a Game 7.

Hitting Breakdown

Considering Scherzer's shaky form, the Houston Astros are an obvious place to start for our bats. Even if we get the regular-season version, the 39-year-old struggled with home runs, allowing 1.65 per 9 innings off a 48.6% fly-ball rate.

Even more troublesome for Scherzer is that he had a pretty meh 4.53 xFIP versus lefties. No one has been hotter at the plate this postseason than Yordan Alvarez ($4,300), and he continues to be a shoo-in play every night. Kyle Tucker ($3,800) and Michael Brantley ($2,700) will also enjoy the platoon advantage. Despite his struggles, Tucker continues to show a promising Statcast hard-hit rate (42.3%)

Among the Houston righties, Jose Altuve ($4,500) has clearly turned things up a notch in this series, scoring 24.9, 27.6, 25.7, and 15.2 points over the last four. Both Alex Bregman ($3,400) and Jose Abreu ($3,000) have multiple postseason dingers. Like Tucker, Jeremy Pena ($2,700) has made a good bit of hard contact (41.9%), so he could surprise as a value play.

On the other side, the Texas Rangers might have more success in their second look at Javier. In the playoffs, the right-hander's 21.7% ground-ball rate has led to a sky-high 69.6% fly-ball rate, so the Rangers could knock a few out if they can make contact. Javier allowed 1.39 home runs per 9 innings off a 55.6% fly-ball rate during the regular season.

Once again, the lefties will have the edge. When facing them, Javier recorded a poor 5.58 xFIP and 18.5% strikeout rate this year. Corey Seager ($4,400) is one of the slate's top plays. The other lefties/switch-hitters aren't musts, but this boosts the values of Nathaniel Lowe ($2,800), Jonah Heim ($2,700), and Leody Taveras ($2,700), so keep an eye on how the bottom of the order shakes out.

Otherwise, Adolis Garcia ($4,100) is an obvious add after slugging a home run in his third straight game -- a grand slam no less -- and Josh Jung ($3,600) is having a good postseason. Mitch Garver ($2,900) might be finally heating up after a big Game 6, and he continues to show fairly short home run odds.

The Philadelphia Phillies lead these playoffs with 23 home runs, which is 5 more than the Rangers and Astros, who both have 18. Bryce Harper ($4,600), Kyle Schwarber ($4,200), and J.T. Realmuto ($3,600) all added to their home run tallies on Saturday. Harper and Schwarber joined Nick Castellanos ($3,300) with five apiece, while Realmuto evened with Trea Turner ($4,100) at three.

We really can't go wrong with any of these guys at this point, and it's not like Merrill Kelly has been lights out on the mound. Schwarber and Harper get a boost from the platoon advantage, and Turner has added appeal due to his speed upside.

As has been the case for much of the playoffs, the Arizona Diamondbacks are the least exciting stack -- at least on paper -- but they should also be the least popular against Nola.

While Corbin Carroll ($4,000) has been quiet in the NLCS, if Arizona has a good night at the plate, it's likely because he's a part of it. Ketel Marte ($3,700) is having no such issues, as he has a 10-game hit streak this postseason. Christian Walker ($3,500) is showing the game's third-shortest odds to hit a dinger behind Schwarber and Harper.

Every other projected D-Backs starter has a salary of $3,000 or lower, so this is one of the easier teams to stack, too. Gabriel Moreno ($2,600) has hit third over the last three games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.