MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 9/8/23

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 9/8/23

We have intriguing pitchers at multiple salary tiers on Friday, giving us some nice lineup-building flexibility. And while some of the usual suspects headline the top stacks, it's easy to branch out on this 11-game main offering.

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

In terms of upside, Kodai Senga ($10,800) and Blake Snell ($10,600) immediately stand out at the top of this slate, but Senga has the more appealing matchup versus the Minnesota Twins.

The Twins are by no means a cakewalk, as their active roster has produced 113 wRC+, .184 ISO, and 10.1% walk rate against righties, but they've been an offense to attack with quality pitchers, as well, due to their sky-high 27.3% strikeout rate.

Since the All-Star break, Senga's maintained a fantastic 28.9% strikeout rate while getting his walk rate down to a reasonable 8.7%. He's coming off back-to-back outings with at least 10 strikeouts and is on a streak of five straight quality starts.

Senga's turned into a consistent fantasy producer down the stretch, and despite the obvious risks of this spot, there's a strong argument for making him your SP1.

Snell has a difficult opponent in the Houston Astros, who happen to be one of the very best teams against lefties. Not only does their active roster have a frightening 133 wRC+ in the split, but their 17.6% strikeout rate is the stuff of DFS pitching nightmares.

Still, this particular southpaw is now -200 to win the NL Cy Young and continues to build on his resume with his own streak of five quality starts, notching four wins for his San Diego Padres over that span.

Incredibly, despite a 13.8% walk rate, Snell has allowed more than three earned runs twice all season. The last time he did so was way back on May 19th.

While every ERA estimator out there will point to regression -- and they're probably right -- it just seems like his stuff is virtually unhittable right now. Dating back to the start of June, he's produced a 35.2% strikeout rate, 49.3% ground-ball rate, and 25.4% FanGraphs hard-hit rate. He may not know where the ball is going all the time -- but neither do opposing batters.

Maybe the Astros are the team that finally gets to him. But that's a risk we should be willing to take tonight.

In the value range, left-hander Kyle Harrison ($8,600) could be capable of keeping pace with Senga and Snell.

Although the 22-year-old has put up mixed results over three starts, his 3.51 SIERA, 32.8% strikeout rate, and 7.8% walk rate are promising numbers. Harrison had a high walk rate in the minors, though, so we should expect that to creep up into the double digits.

But I'm probably burying the lede here because the main reason we should be excited about Harrison is his matchup versus the Colorado Rockies at Oracle Park.

It's hard to fathom how poor the Rockies fare against lefties. In the split, their active roster has a 54 wRC+, .135 ISO, 30.0% strikeout rate, and 6.7% walk rate. Even against an inexperienced pitcher like Harrison, they come in with the slate's lowest implied team total (3.32).

Yusei Kikuchi ($9,000) also deserves consideration if you're looking for savings. He's scuffled a bit lately, but facing the lowly Kansas City Royals (3.59 implied team total) could help him turn things around. Armed with a rock-solid 25.2% strikeout rate, Kikuchi's K prop (6.5) is equal to that of Senga, Snell, and Harrison.

Hitting Breakdown

Surprise, surprise -- the Atlanta Braves are a top stack tonight, sporting a slate-high 5.51 implied team total.

Truthfully, there isn't anything particularly noteworthy about their matchup against Mitch Keller, who's been a quality pitcher this year, with a 3.83 SIERA, 26.0% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate. If you're looking for a reason to fade Atlanta, it isn't outlandish to see Keller doing just enough to limit the Braves' fantasy scores.

Still, this is all about an offense that can go off on any given night. In addition to having the platoon advantage, it's worth noting that the lefties could have an easier time hitting dingers, as Keller is allowing 1.38 home runs per nine innings in the split.

Much like Atlanta, we don't need added incentive to stack the Los Angeles Dodgers, and their matchup is more appealing against left-hander MacKenzie Gore.

Gore can shut down opposing batters with his 26.1% strikeout rate, but a 9.8% walk rate and 1.63 home runs allowed per nine innings can lead to some ugly outings. The southpaw allows most of those dingers to righties, and he actually has worse control facing lefties, so he could be in trouble all around against Los Angeles.

Mookie Betts ($4,500) injured his foot on Thursday, so it's possible he sits out tonight, leaving the leadoff spot open for someone else. Against a lefty, Chris Taylor ($2,600) could be a candidate to move up, which would make him a fantastic value play.

It's hot, windy, and humid at Fenway Park tonight, so both sides of the Baltimore Orioles-Boston Red Sox game are in play. The 10.0 over/under is the night's highest mark.

Baltimore's lefties will have the advantage against righty Tanner Houck. Houck has an elite 58.5% in same-handed matchups, but that drops to 44.9% versus lefties. As a result, 9 of the 10 bombs he's allowed have come off lefty sticks. Anthony Santander ($3,700), Gunnar Henderson ($3,300), Cedric Mullins ($3,300), and Ryan O'Hearn ($2,600) are the priorities.

Right-hander Kyle Bradish has enjoyed a good season, so Boston's side is less exciting. But Bradish's 3.92 SIERA is nearly a full run higher than his 3.03 ERA, and most rest-of-the-season projections see him as closer to a league-average pitcher. His strikeout rate drops to 22.9% versus righties, making Adam Duvall ($3,200) a potential one-off as a player with a high K rate (29.5%) but an 88th percentile barrel rate.

The Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers are also on the radar. The Blue Jays have a 5.41 implied team total in what's expected to be a bullpen game for the Royals. Texas will face a more-or-less average Paul Blackburn, who will be followed by the Oakland Athletics' lackluster bullpen.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.