FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 9/29/23

The final Friday of the regular season brings about a whopping 13 games, but our pitching selection generally falls under "not great" more than anything else. On the hitting side, there are a couple of obvious matchups to exploit before things quickly drop off.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Zac Gallen ($10,600) and Joe Ryan ($10,000) are the only arms with five-figure salaries, but Gallen is facing the Houston Astros and Ryan is at Coors Field. While Ryan is arguably an easy pass, we probably shouldn't write off Gallen completely.

Dating back to around mid-August, the highs have been high and lows have been low for the Arizona righty. Over his last nine games, Gallen has exceeded 50 FanDuel points four times, but he's also scored 13 or fewer in a trio of stinkers.

There's nothing inviting about this spot against a Houston team that's still fighting for a playoff spot, but anyone with this kind of upside has to be in the conversation -- particularly on a slate lacking any obvious top option. Overall, Gallen possesses one of the night's better profiles, coming in with a 3.69 SIERA, 26.0% strikeout rate, and 5.6% walk rate.

Dylan Cease ($9,800) falls in a similar bucket as Gallen. In Cease's case, the downside is the combination of a poor 10.1% walk rate and a tough matchup versus the San Diego Padres. But he's also fresh off an 11-punchout, 58-point outing against the Boston Red Sox, and his 27.2% strikeout rate is one of the slate's better marks.

Both Gallen and Cease are worth rolling the dice with as boom-or-bust options.

However, if we're picking one guy to start a lineup with tonight, it might actually be Nick Pivetta ($8,800) against the Baltimore Orioles.

For all his flaws -- and ups and downs -- Pivetta leads the slate in strikeout rate (30.7%), and there's a case that he's been downright elite in the second half, boasting a 2.91 xFIP, 34.7% strikeout rate, and 6.8% walk rate since the break.

Normally, this matchup might be considered a negative -- except the Orioles clinched the AL East just last night, so there's a very good chance we see several players resting, and those who are playing might be a tad slower following last night's festivities.

Pivetta has thrown roughly 90 or so pitches in each of his last three starts, which should be enough to get the job done. He logged 10 Ks in the first of those three outings and earned quality starts in the last two. Pivetta's modest salary sure doesn't hurt, either.

It's too little, too late for Carlos Rodon ($8,700) and the New York Yankees, but Rodon has finally shown flashes of his prior form, piling up nine-plus strikeouts in two of his last three appearances. The Kansas City Royals are the right matchup to at least end his campaign on a high note. He's hardly trustworthy, but at least you aren't paying a premium salary here.

If it isn't clear already, we're dealing with a lot of uncertainty outside of Pivetta -- which is saying something -- so this is exactly the type of slate where we can also throw up our hands and punt the position with someone like John Means ($7,400) or Allan Winans ($6,500).

Means has pretty atrocious metrics in three starts since returning from injury, but he flirted with a no-hitter in his most recent one, allowing just one hit over 7 1/3 innings against the Cleveland Guardians. He went 96 pitches in that start, and it's quite possible Baltimore will be more interested in him getting another strong performance under his belt rather than giving him extra rest tonight against Boston. The lefty has never been a big strikeout pitcher, though, so his upside could be limited.

Winans has impressed over his five starts, compiling a 3.49 SIERA, 27.4% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate. However, rostering him requires a leap of faith, as his minor league numbers suggest that he's more likely to be below average in punchouts. Still, we rarely find a worthwhile pitcher at this low a salary, and the opposing Washington Nationals are showing a fairly light 4.07 implied team total.

Hitting Breakdown

The Atlanta Braves have been a fixture in this space all season, so it's fitting to see them with a 6.43 implied team total tonight.

Washington's Trevor Williams is wrapping up a forgettable 2023 campaign. Over 29 starts, he's posted a 5.12 SIERA and allowed a ridiculous 2.17 home runs per 9 innings. He's been particularly bad versus lefties, as he owns a 5.82 xFIP and 12.6% strikeout rate in the split.

We'll see the Braves in the postseason, but this will be one of the last times we can take advantage of stacking them on a slate this size, so we shouldn't hesitate to do so -- particularly if we're spending down at pitcher.

The Minnesota Twins are the only other team with an implied team total in this range (6.51), and that's because they're ending their regular season at Coors Field. Lefty Ty Blach's 14.0% strikeout rate and 38.2% ground-ball rate have predictably led to home run issues. He's coughed up 1.73 home runs per 9 innings, and the crazy thing is that the vast majority have come on the road.

Switch-hitter Jorge Polanco ($3,800) is a strong fit as someone who can take advantage of both Blach and this poor Colorado Rockies bullpen, and righty Ryan Jeffers ($3,400) has nice power if he starts.

After those two teams, we see a significant dip in implied team totals. But it isn't hard to imagine Aaron Judge ($4,500) and the New York Yankees having a field day against Jordan Lyles. The right-hander has allowed 38 dingers this season, the third-most in the league. Judge, Gleyber Torres ($3,000), and Giancarlo Stanton ($2,900) are the best options to cash in.

The Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, and Los Angeles Dodgers should also be on the radar.

Arizona will face right-hander J.P. France, who's actually been much worse in same-handed matchups (5.49 xFIP; 14.5% strikeout rate), making Christian Walker ($3,600) an appealing one-off.

The Reds will probably see Jake Woodford for only a few innings, but that might be all they need to do damage against someone showing a putrid 13.8% strikeout rate and 10.0% walk rate.

The Dodgers never need much of an explanation, and rookie Keaton Winn probably isn't the guy to stop them despite getting fairly good results over a small sample.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.