FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 8/25/23
We have a 12-game main slate on our hands this Friday, and that means we have a lot of decisions to make when building lineups. Rain could also be a factor in several spots, but tonight's game in Boston might be the only one with any serious concerns.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
Spencer Strider ($12,000) did Spencer Strider things his last time out, mowing down the San Francisco Giants for 10 strikeouts and 61 FanDuel points.
While that performance was a lovely reminder of his immense ceiling, the downside is it bumped his salary even higher this time around. He's also facing these same Giants again, and familiarity with an opposing pitcher tends to favor hitters.
And yet this is Strider we're talking about; he's still the first guy we want to roster.
Last week marked a league-best 10th time he's logged double-digit punchouts, and only Kevin Gausman (seven) and Shohei Ohtani (six) have accomplished that more than five times this season. Essentially, Strider is at least doubling up anyone else not named Gausman or Ohtani.
Overall, Strider is pacing all qualified starters with a ridiculous 38.2% strikeout rate, and he also continues to boast the best SIERA (2.75) and xFIP (2.86), suggesting his already solid 3.57 ERA is due for positive regression.
Outside of the repeat matchup, there isn't anything particularly worrisome about facing San Francisco. Against righties, their active roster is slightly above average in wRC+ (102) and has a high walk rate (9.5%), but they also hand out Ks at a high clip (24.2%).
As long as Strider can keep the free passes to a minimum, we could very well see him tally 10-plus punchouts for the second start in a row.
Of course, that massive salary might not work for certain stacks, in which case dropping down to Dylan Cease ($9,400) is an appealing consolation prize.
Cease hasn't been particularly consistent this year -- hence the lower salary -- but we're less concerned with that when the opponent is the Oakland Athletics. Facing righties, the A's active roster owns a middling 93 wRC+, 24.1% strikeout rate, and 8.3% walk rate.
One of the big reasons for Cease's up-and-down campaign is a 10.3% walk rate, and facing an opponent that's neutral in that area should help. While his 26.7% strikeout rate isn't elite, it jumps way up to 31.3% versus right-handed hitters, and he should see at least five of those tonight.
Splitting the salary difference between Strider and Cease, Kodai Senga ($10,900) and Brandon Woodruff ($10,000) are others to consider in non-Strider builds.
Senga's profile isn't all that different from Cease's, coming in with a 4.09 SIERA, 28.1% strikeout rate, and 11.1% walk rate over his first big league season. The difference is that Senga has pretty even lefty/righty splits, which is perhaps why his best starts can seemingly come against any opponent.
The right-hander has a tricky matchup versus the Los Angeles Angels that possesses plenty of pop, but the Angels' active roster also has a 25.1% strikeout rate against righties. It's fair to wonder how much fight is left in this team as its season continues to spiral down the drain, too.
Woodruff got up to 92 pitches in his most recent start, and early returns have generally been positive since his return at the beginning of August, as he's posted a 28.1% strikeout rate and 4.7% walk rate. There isn't anything particularly special about his matchup against the San Diego Padres, though, so he probably shouldn't be a priority in just his fourth start back from injury.
Still, Woodruff should be close to a full workload moving forward, and we're getting a full $2,000 back compared to Strider. As a contrarian play, you could certainly do much worse.
I'm not super into anyone in the value range, but Bryce Miller ($8,800) has a plus matchup against the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have one of the night's worst implied team totals (3.48).
While Miller is pretty much league average when it comes to strikeouts, he popped for 10 Ks against the Angels a few starts back. Among pitchers with at least 90 innings, his 5.1% walk rate just barely sits outside the league's top 10, as well.
The trouble is that he's generally held to modest pitch counts and can't be counted on to go much beyond 90 pitches at best, leaving little room for error. For that reason, I prefer to try to get up to Cease in this range.
But an efficient performance from Miller could still net him a quality start and 40-plus FanDuel points. In fact, Miller has the same daily strikeout leader odds as Senga and Woodruff on FanDuel Sportsbook.
A potential surprise name on that odds list? Brandon Pfaadt ($7,500) has the fourth-shortest odds to lead the day in punchouts just ahead of that trio.
He's actually logged a 25.8% strikeout rate across four starts this month and got up to 107 pitches last time. Pfaadt could be worth a dice roll in a high-strikeout matchup against the Cincinnati Reds.
Hitting Breakdown
As noted at the top, the weather could be an issue at Fenway Park, but if it plays, the Los Angeles Dodgers' bats could be in for a big night against Kutter Crawford. The wind is blowing out to left field, and the Dodgers have a slate-high 5.44 implied team total
Crawford has been a quality pitcher this year, which includes a respectable 24.1% strikeout rate. However, he's struggled to keep the ball in the park against lefty sticks, who are clobbering him for 1.75 home runs per nine innings off a 54.7% fly-ball rate. Given he also has a 4.83 xFIP in the split, we should continue to expect him to struggle.
This lines up as a great night to roster Freddie Freeman ($4,200) and Max Muncy ($3,500), and then we could see as many as four additional lefties batting behind them at below $3,000 apiece. Michael Busch ($2,300) was recently recalled from Triple-A and has dominated that level this year with a .292 ISO and .447 wOBA.
Of course, Mookie Betts ($4,500) is dismantling opposing pitchers on a near-nightly basis, so he's every bit a top play as Freeman or Muncy despite not having as advantageous a matchup.
The Baltimore Orioles are right up there with the Dodgers, sporting a 5.22 implied team total. While they may not have the same caliber of offense as Los Angeles, they're facing a far weaker pitcher in Kyle Freeland.
Freeland's 14.8% strikeout rate ranks dead last on the slate, and when paired with a 40.9% fly-ball rate, we see the lefty giving up 1.60 home runs per nine innings.
Naturally, most of those dingers are coming off right-handed batters, and Baltimore will have plenty of those tonight. Best of all, this stack is nearly all value, with modest salaries for all of Anthony Santander ($3,200), Ryan Mountcastle ($3,100), Adley Rutschman ($3,000), and Austin Hays ($2,700).
The Philadelphia Phillies should also be high on our list against right-hander Miles Mikolas. Mikolas is another guy with a low strikeout rate (16.5%), but he's curiously not allowing a ton of home runs despite inducing grounders at just a 39.1% clip. It's not like he's suppressing hard contact, either, as his xERA sits at 4.99.
This looks like an area where we should see Mikolas regress, and lefties Kyle Schwarber ($3,800) and Bryce Harper ($3,800) are ideal candidates for the job. Nick Castellanos ($3,300) and J.T. Realmuto ($3,000) are the top power righties, and Trea Turner ($3,200) seems to be finally looking more like himself again.
The Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, and Arizona Diamondbacks are other offenses we should be excited about.
Boston will likely field a lefty-heavy lineup, which is bad news for Lance Lynn. While Lynn has been much more successful since joining the Dodgers, it doesn't remove the stink of coughing up 2.47 home runs per nine innings to lefties this season.
The White Sox make another rare appearance here, as even they should be able to do some damage in what should be a bullpen game for the A's. Right-hander Zach Neal should occupy the first handful of innings. The 34-year-old has performed poorly across 12 innings this year, and prior to this season, he last pitched in the big leagues in 2018.
The Diamondbacks will see Hunter Greene, who's making his second start since a lengthy stint on the IL. He was lit up for five dingers in his return over the weekend.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.