Falcons at Commanders Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football

The Washington Commanders host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football in a battle of rookie quarterbacks. The Commanders are 4.5-point favorites in what could be a high-scoring matchup.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Falcons at Commanders NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Jayden Daniels ($15,500) is fresh off scoring a season-high 36.4 FanDuel points and is now a -20000 favorite -- you read that right -- to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. The dual-threat QB leads our NFL DFS projections as the only player pegged for 20+ points, and just two others are projected for even 15+. He'll now face an Atlanta team that's 27th in schedule-adjusted pass defense and has given up the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to QBs. Despite almost certainly being the most popular MVP pick, you can be forgiven if you just want to roll with the chalk.

Bijan Robinson ($16,000) is the other obvious choice and owns the next-best projection. Since Atlanta's bye, Robinson has averaged 118.5 scrimmage yards, 23.0 carries, and 3.0 targets over the last four games, scoring 25.5, 19.1, 17.0, and 23.3 FanDuel points. He's also logged an 82.6% red zone rush share in that sample.

Michael Penix Jr. ($12,500) is the one other player projected for over 15 FanDuel points, and maybe that's taking a leap of faith considering he scored just 7.4 points in his first NFL start. Still, Washington is 21st in adjusted pass defense, and Penix was efficient last week, averaging 0.22 expected points added per drop back with a 55.2% passing success rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He could see a lower MVP roster percentage, too, which is always especially intriguing when it's a quarterback.

After failing to score double-digit touchdowns in any of his previous campaigns, Terry McLaurin ($14,000) has the NFL's second-most receiving TDs (12) behind just Ja'Marr Chase. While he's still experienced up-and-down usage in this Washington offense with a solid if unspectacular 22.4% target share, his 41.2% air yards share and 42.9% end zone target share have help him to several spike weeks. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers, as well.

With Drake London ($13,000) seeing a 30.8% target share in Penix's start, we should remain confident in his role moving forward despite an otherwise modest fantasy output last week. He should have a much better chance at racking up points in a matchup with shootout potential, and he projects for a game-high 9.0 targets.

Flex Targets

Brian Robinson ($12,000) -- Robinson is projected for double-digit FanDuel points and has some fringe MVP appeal with Austin Ekeler (concussion) still out, but the Falcons have allowed the eighth-fewest FanDuel points per game to RBs. It's also concerning that he's coming off a game where he lost two fumbles. Despite all this, his rushing plus receiving yards prop line is set at a promising 78.5.

Darnell Mooney ($11,000) -- Mooney earned a 23.1% target share and 47.6% air yards share with Penix, so his role as a downfield threat remains intact. He projects for the third-most targets (6.5) and receiving yards (52.3) in this matchup.

Ray-Ray McCloud ($10,000) -- McCloud hasn't shown a ton of upside this season as a low-aDOT receiver, but he posted an 82.8% route rate last week, which was identical to Mooney's mark. He probably needs a touchdown to have a reasonable shot at landing on the optimal lineup.

Tyler Allgeier ($9,500) -- With Allgeier earning limited opportunities and playing just 10.0% of the red zone snaps since the bye, he's probably worth skipping over in most lineups.

Zane Gonzalez ($9,000) and Riley Patterson ($8,500) -- As replacement kickers filling in for injured starters, expectations probably should be tempered for these two, but Patterson did just score 12 FanDuel points in a blowout win. In general, they probably aren't priorities in a game with some shootout potential.

Kyle Pitts ($8,000) -- Pitts got 2 targets in Week 16, and he ran just 51.7% of the routes. Even at this salary, he's merely a dart throw.

Zach Ertz ($8,000) -- Ertz is coming off a one-catch performance in Week 16, but he's still closest thing to a No. 2 option in the Commanders' passing attack with Noah Brown on injured reserve. He's projected for the game's fourth-most targets (5.5) as a touchdown-or-bust play.

Olamide Zaccheaus ($7,500) -- Dyami Brown has been ruled out, which elevates the chance of Zaccheaus seeing looks. Last week, he actually caught two touchdowns and led the team with eight targets (22.2% share). His 60.0% route rate also put him on par with Ertz (64.4%) and Brown (62.2%).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.