Fair Grounds Race Course Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, 3/22/25

The Fair Grounds Race Course spur of the Kentucky Derby trail draws to its exciting conclusion on Saturday, March 22, with the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. A 100-50-25-25-10 point prep race, it virtually guarantees its top two finishers a spot in the Run for the Roses, and even others in the race who run well can earn a spot in Kentucky if they have run well in other preps, too.

With a $1 million purse, the Louisiana Derby is one of the richest Kentucky Derby preps, and with a 1 3/16 mile distance, it provides the best stamina test of any of the stateside prep races. It’s no wonder the Louisiana Derby has become one of the most important Kentucky Derby preps in recent times, with recent winners like Epicenter, Hot Rod Charlie, and Hall of Fame inductee Gun Runner.

The Louisiana Derby Day card is also a betting extravaganza, with a 12-race card including eight stakes. Those stakes include a 100-point Kentucky Oaks prep, the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), in addition to two other graded races and four other ungraded stakes. Skies are expected to be partly cloudy and conditions dry on Saturday in New Orleans, but make sure to check the weather and the scratches just in case, especially since scratches can happen for any reason and affect pace scenarios.

Fair Grounds Race Course Picks

Race 8: Tom Benson Memorial, 1 1/16 miles on turf - Tufani, Wild Bout Hilary

FanDuel odds: 5-1 and 8-1

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Morning-line favorite Way to Be Marie consistently runs well, but has a case of second-itis and hasn’t actually won since an allowance race over a year ago. She could easily get a piece, but on the win end, Tufani (5-1) appeals more. She has shown the ability to win against stakes company, including in the Pago Hop at last winter’s Fair Grounds meet, as well as a pair of races at Colonial last year. She was a credible fourth in the Al Stall Memorial at Fair Grounds last month in her seasonal debut, and if she moves up for high-percentage connections Mike Stidham and Ben Curtis, she can move forward, especially if she sets up a little closer to the pace like she has been known to do in the past.

There isn’t much in the way of pace, meaning Wild Bout Hilary (12-1) can try to steal this race on the front end. She comes out of a Grade 3 victory on the dirt at Oaklawn, and that’s the big question here: she has only raced twice on the turf, with her most recent try on it being a third-place finish in a 7 ½-furlong allowance at Hawthorne last year. But, it wasn’t a bad effort, especially since she didn’t make the top that day and she was a three-year-old battling older. If she can use her status as the speed of the speed to make the top in this slightly longer race, this in-form filly could lull them to sleep on the front end and hold the chasing pack at bay when the real running begins.

Race 11: Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), 1 1/16 miles on dirt - Good Cheer, Ahavah

FanDuel odds: 4-5 and 8-1

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Good Cheer (4-5) led the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager last week, and with good reason. Not only has she won all five of her starts, but has done so by open lengths. Her tactical speed is a recipe for a good trip in just about any field, and she has won four times at this 1 1/16-mile distance already, and she handled the Fair Grounds dirt beautifully last out. Second off the layoff, she can move forward, and there’s plenty of reason to depend on her as a single and catch some prices elsewhere in a multi-race sequence.

For anyone looking for a price to try instead, or to consider underneath the favorite in a narrow exotic play, consider Ahavah (8-1). This Cherie DeVaux trainee comes off a debut maiden win and stretches out to two turns for the first time, meaning she does cede seasoning to the rest of the field. However, that sprint speed she showed last out could get her to the top this time as well, and she was able to shake off some company early in her debut. Her pedigree suggests she can move forward at two turns, DeVaux shines with last-out maiden winners, and high-percentage jockey Jose Ortiz keeps the faith.

Race 12: Louisiana Derby (G2), 1 3/16 miles on dirt - Instant Replay, Vassimo

FanDuel odds: 6-1 and 12-1

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Trainer Brad Cox has John Hancock, the morning-line favorite on the rail, but drawn inside of a field with a good bit of speed, it won’t be easy, and the price won’t be right. More interesting is the up-and-comer from the Cox barn, Instant Replay (6-1). He makes his stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby, but he swept from last to first in a local allowance last month, making the best of his sophomore debut. He should get a similarly crackling pace setup in the Louisiana Derby as he got in the allowance, and with upside to improve second off the lay, he should muster another good effort for Cox and high-percentage Fair Grounds jockey Florent Geroux.

No trainer has won more editions of the Louisiana Derby than Todd Pletcher, and he has a live one at a price in 2025. Vassimo (12-1) got a very strange trip in his stakes debut last month, the Risen Star (G2). He looked like he was dropping out of it, then started to come again. By then, he was never going to catch the top few, but now he has that experience under him. Pletcher also fit him with new blinkers, a high-percentage move for the barn. He should be able to track a few lengths off the contested pace and make a run.

Read about all of the contenders at FanDuel Research.

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