Euro 2024 France vs. Portugal: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Euro 2024 is rolling along, and the quarterfinal round starts Friday. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering Euro 2024 odds for each game.

On Friday at 3 p.m. ET, France (second in the FIFA rankings) take on Portugal (sixth).

What should we expect from this matchup?

All Euro 2024 odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Euro 2024 France vs. Portugal: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

France vs. Portugal Odds

France to Win: +135
Portugal to Win: +240
Draw: +200
Over 2.5 Goal Odds: +152
Under 2.5 Goal Odds: -188
France to Advance: -154
Portugal to Advance: +126

France vs. Portugal Analysis

France and Portugal are two of the top national-team sides in the world, and they square off Friday in the Euro 2024 quarterfinals. These two squads have the third- and fifth-shortest odds to win Euro 2024 -- France at (+440) and Portugal at (+750).

France have been a top side for a while now, and although they've struggled to get goals in this tourney -- scoring only three times, two of which were own goals and the other coming from the penalty spot -- they're a battle-tested group that is a very tough out.

They're unbeaten in this tourney and have shipped just one goal. They've also been unlucky not to score more goals -- going by FBRef's expected goals (xG) model. They've racked up 6.7 xG through three matches despite not yet netting a goal from open play.

Portugal survived a penalty shootout versus Slovenia in the Round of 16, but they deserved to advance as they won the xG battle 1.9-0.5.

They've now played their first-choice starting 11 in three matches in this tourney, and they've amassed exactly 1.9 xG in each of those outings while permitting a combined total of 1.6 xG over the three games.

France vs. Portugal Prediction

Opta's model gives France a 40.1% chance to win while putting the odds of a Portugal win (30.2%) and a draw (29.8%) nearly equally as likely.

MasseyRatings sees things differently. Their model has Portugal as the favorite, projecting the Portuguese to win 36% of the time, compared to 34% win odds for France.

The Euro 2024 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have France as the favorite, listing them at +135 moneyline odds. That implies win odds of 42.5% -- a clip that is above what either projection model has.

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