EPL Title Odds: Can Anyone Knock Off Manchester City?
The start of August means that it's almost time for another exciting season in the English Premier League.
Let's gear up for the action by taking a look at the title odds for each squad, per the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Here are the title odds for all 20 teams along with a breakdown of the top four favorites.
Manchester City (-160)
The three-time defending champions, Manchester City are once again the overwhelming favorites to win the league. Last season, they trailed Arsenal for most of the year but stormed into first place in the table down the stretch. In the end, they won the title by five points.
City haven't gone on their typical summer spending spree to add to their squad. The only first team player they've bought so far was Mateo Kovacic for $25 million.
They've actually suffered some losses that might be tough to replace. Ilkay Gundogan was a key part of their midfield the past few seasons, and he left to join Barcelona. Kovacic, in theory, could replace him. They could also utilize Kalvin Phillips more, as the midfielder joined from Leeds last summer and played in just 12 Premier League games in 2022-23.
Riyad Mahrez is another loss as he joined the Saudi Arabian league, with no replacement being signed quite yet. A year ago, Mahrez lost his starting place in the team in important matches, but when you are fighting for multiple trophies, squad players like him are key.
There are also rumors that Kyle Walker will be joining Bayern Munich at some point this summer transfer window. They've been preparing Rico Lewis to take over the right-back position, but losing Walker would still be a significant loss as his pace is a big help against counterattacks.
Despite not necessarily winning the transfer market this summer, City are still -- on paper -- the strongest team in the league. They scored 94 goals last year, which was the most in the league, and they tied for the fewest goals conceded with 33.
In terms of expected goals (xG), City was by far the best team last season. They had an xG differential of +46.6, besting everyone by at least 14.2, according to FBRef's model.
Erling Haaland set the record for the most goals in a Premier League season in his first campaign in England. He made City look unstoppable, as they had their first truly reliable striker since Sergio Aguero. It wasn't a fluke, either -- he put up 86 goals in 89 games for Borussia Dortmund before joining City, so the 52 goals he scored in 53 matches last year was right around the same rate.
City also had the leading assist man in Kevin De Bruyne. The combination between KDB and Haaland -- two world-class players -- was truly deadly. Combining them with a midfield that controlled possession at a 65.2% rate, City looked like a machine in the second half of the year after appearing to be out of sorts at times earlier in the campaign.
It will take a lot for any team to knock off City. No team in the Premier League era has won more than three titles consecutively, and City have a great shot of doing just that.
Arsenal (+500)
Nearly everything went right for Arsenal at the beginning of last season. Heading into the home stretch, they were in a position to win their first league title since 2004 but ultimately came up short.
Still, it was a huge leap forward for the club after they finished fifth in the previous season. They brought in a lot of new players to integrate with their young talent, and it worked out nicely.
Arsenal spent money in January to bring in Leandro Trossard and Jorginho to push for the title, but that didn't slow them down from spending more money this summer. They spent $208 million on three new players. The most expensive and perhaps most important signing was Declan Rice from West Ham for $105 million. He will bring more stability to midfield than what the Gunners got from departing Granit Xhaka or an oft-injured Thomas Partey.
Kai Havertz comes over from Chelsea for $65 million. He was once considered to be one of the best young talents in the world. It will be interesting to see how Havertz performs at his new club, as he likely will play a completely different role than he did at Chelsea, with Havertz probably slotting into midfield with the Gunners.
Jurrien Timber is a defender who will add some nice depth to the back line. He's capable of playing both center-back and right-back, both areas where Arsenal needed another body. He's more than just a depth player, though, having already played 15 times for the Netherlands at just 22 years of age.
A concern for Arsenal is a preseason injury to Gabriel Jesus. Eddie Nketiah was the replacement for Jesus when the Brazilian missed time last season, but he managed only four goals in 30 Premier League games. Manager Mikel Arteta could turn to Havertz at center-forward as the German has plenty of experience in the forward line.
Arsenal ranked third in the xG table last season. They well outperformed their xG in terms of attacking, scoring 88 goals while amassing only 71.9 xG. Defensively, things pretty much fell as they should have, with the Gunners conceding 43 goals from 42.0 xG allowed.
Heading into this season, Arsenal appear to be a better side than the one that ran City close last season, and there's a chance City take a step back this campaign after losing some important players. Plus, the likes of Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Odegaard are all excellent young players who could even take another step forward.
Arsenal have a good squad, and if they can cope with now playing in the Champions League, they could compete for the title again.
Liverpool (+850)
Having been Manchester City's biggest challenger in the past handful of seasons, Liverpool experienced a big drop in 2022-23.
The prior season, they nearly won the quadruple -- capturing the FA Cup and the League Cup while also reaching the Champions League Final and finishing one point behind City in the league with 92 points.
Those 92 points would have been enough to win the title in 2022-23. However, Liverpool reached only 67 points and finished in fifth. It was a season with a ton of injuries and squad changes that considerably weakened the Reds. The obvious weak spot of their team was in midfield, but they also had to deal with injuries to attackers Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz, which didn't help Liverpool in their efforts to replace Sadio Mane.
Those attacking injuries resulted in Liverpool signing Cody Gakpo in January to go along with their big summer signing of Darwin Nunez. Both players were positive contributors but perhaps didn't bag as many goals as the club wanted.
This offseason, Liverpool lost Naby Keita, Jordan Henderson, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Fabinho from their already struggling midfield. They've used the transfer window to replace them, signing Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai, two bright young talents who will contribute more on the attacking side of the ball. The club could do with another midfielder who is more defensive-minded.
The xG numbers had Liverpool with the fourth-best differential in the league. They slightly outperformed their xG tally in attack, scoring 75 goals from 72.6 xG. Both of these numbers were down considerably from the 2021-22 season, when Liverpool scored 94 goals from 88.7 xG. They also went from allowing 33.8 xG in 2021-22 to 50.9 xG in 2022-23.
Many players are gone from that 2021-22 team. Some of the key ones who remain -- such as Mo Salah and Virgil Van Dijk -- are over the age of 30. That said, Liverpool have added a ton of exciting talent in the past two seasons and have one of the best managers in the game. It is possible for them to jump back into contention this season.
Manchester United (+900)
Manchester United are set to begin their 11th season since Sir Alex Ferguson retired, and not coincidentally, this will be their 11th season since last winning a Premier League title.
They do have some reasons for optimism under manager Erik Ten Hag, who is entering his second campaign. A season ago, United won the League Cup, made the final of the FA Cup, and had wins over all the teams listed above.
Ten Hag brought in some interesting players last season that helped solidify the team. Casemiro was one of the best midfielders in the league last season when he stayed on the pitch. Lisandro Martinez surprised many by being an effective center-back despite being only 5'9". Midfielder Christian Eriksen proved to be a shrewd signing on a free transfer, as he rediscovered some of his form from a few seasons prior.
A key to the team playing well was a stretch of form from Marcus Rashford. He ended up scoring 30 goals in the season, his most ever. This kind of goal-scoring output from Rashford will be necessary for Manchester United to improve on what they showed last season.
United were able to bring in some new players this summer. They signed Mason Mount from Chelsea to play as an attacking midfielder. Andre Onana comes in at goalkeeper off the back of playing in the Champions League final for Inter Milan, and he will replace David De Gea between the sticks.
They also are expected to announce the signing of Rasmus Hojlund in the coming days. A center-forward who Rashford, Anthony and Bruno Fernandes can play off is key to the way Ten Hag wants to play. Hojlund doesn't have a huge track record of scoring goals, but he is only 20 and has impressed with his speed for a player who's 6'3".
The xG doesn't paint a pretty picture for Manchester United from last season. They rode their luck a lot and had only the sixth-best xG differential in the league. David De Gea was a big part of that, saving over seven goals above expected. He will no longer be the goalkeeper, and while Manchester United may have improved on his passing ability with the switch to Onana, it could hurt them in the shot-stopping department.
The team severely underperformed in terms of xG scored, netting nearly 10 goals fewer than expected. This is where Hojlund will need to pick up the slack, as he will replace the wasteful Wout Weghorst.
All and all, Manchester United probably still need another year under Ten Hag before they can truly compete for a title. They were in the title race in January for a little bit after a victory over Manchester City but ultimately couldn't build on that momentum.
This +900 number is probably fair, and it would likely require a big slip-up from Manchester City for United to compete for the crown.
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