Don't Underestimate Drake London's Breakout Potential in 2023

Second-year wide receivers always have intrigue in fantasy football. There tends to be a real leap from year one to year two. It doesn't always happen, but some of the biggest fantasy breakouts do come from this bucket of players.

A very interesting potential sophomore breakout in 2023 is Drake London. He had an up-and-down rookie season -- mostly through no fault of his own. The Atlanta Falcons' passing offense was not one we really wanted to target last season.

That could be slightly different in 2023 with a different starting quarterback. So, how should we value Drake London in fantasy football heading into this season?

Drake London Fantasy Football Projection

(Projections via numberFire)

2023 Projected Points: 162.2 (143.6 in 2022)
numberFire Positional Projection: WR36
2023 Projected Stats:

• 76.3 receptions
• 124.1 targets
• 892.3 receiving yards
• 6.0 receiving touchdowns

Drake London Fantasy Football Outlook

His Rookie Season Showed Promise

London was the first wide receiver off the board in the 2022 NFL Draft. He was taken eighth overall by Atlanta, making it the second-straight season in which they selected a pass catcher in the top 10.

The unfortunate part of this for London was the quarterback situation was not one that would allow for big fantasy results. Marcus Mariota had a horrendous season throwing the ball. He had a completion percentage 1.8% lower than expected.

Atlanta also threw the ball very infrequently. Their pass rate over expectation (PRoE) was the second-lowest in the NFL, coming in at a mind-boggling 13.7% lower than expected.

With all this having occurred, London basically did as well as he possibly could have in this offense. He was utilized as the number one receiver -- especially after Kyle Pitts went down due to injury.

The usage numbers for London were exactly what we like to see. He had a target share of 29.4% and saw 31.9% of the team's air yards.

London finished as the WR36 in half-PPR scoring. That's actually impressive considering there was a stretch between Week 4 and Week 9 in which he didn't record more than 5.5 fantasy points.

He saw a noticeable bump when Desmond Ridder took over at quarterback in Week 15. London averaged 10.4 points per game in the last four games and averaged 7.8 before that. Ridder wasn't necessarily expected to be a huge upgrade over Mariota, but he turned out to be useful for London.

Breakout in 2023?

The Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson in the first round this year, making it the third-straight draft they've selected an offensive skill-position player in the top 10.

It's clear that Atlanta under Arthur Smith would like to emphasize the run game. They ran the ball at the second-highest rate in the league last season. They were effective in doing so last season with the eighth-best running game in the league, according to numberFire's metrics.

Obviously, if we want London to have a breakout fantasy season, we need them to pass more. There have been reports and speculation that the Falcons will increase their passing volume this season. They may have more faith in Ridder throwing the ball than Mariota -- given what we saw from both last season.

Kyle Pitts missed the final six games of 2022, which limited the competition London had for targets at the end of the season. The Falcons lost their second-leading receiver Olamide Zaccheaus to free agency and really failed to replace him with anyone notable. Mack Hollins will be the second option in 2023.

London's 29.4% target share was the fifth-highest in the league last season. It's not unreasonable to think that he could achieve something similar this season. Bijan Robinson should get more targets out of the backfield than any of the backs last season, but other than that, there won't be anyone new taking away a lot of targets.

If Ridder can provide better quarterback play than what Mariota did last season, and the Falcons do pass more frequently, London could absolutely be in line to score more fantasy points in 2023.

Where Should We Draft Drake London in 2023?

Currently, London is being drafted as the WR24, which is the 59th player overall in half-PPR leagues.

This is a leap from where he finished last season and where he's ranked in numberFire's projections. It does make sense that people would be willing to draft London in this spot, anticipating that the eighth-overall pick takes a step forward in year two.

When considering London, we need to think about what kind of bet we want to make. If you are trying to swing for upside, and maybe have already drafted a few receivers, going for London makes sense.

If you are seeking more safety, you can draft someone like Chris Godwin. Godwin is going as the WR27 and is WR31 in nF's projections. We can feel comfortable knowing that Godwin will see a good amount of targets and catches, and he's produced at a level above this before.

However, with the state of the offense and the new quarterback situation, it's unlikely Godwin has a truly elite fantasy season in his range of outcomes. He also has to compete with Mike Evans for targets, and Evans tends to be the one dominating the touchdowns. Being 27, we also san feel fairly comfortable knowing what Godwin is at this stage of his career.

The unknown factor of London, Ridder, and the rest of the Atlanta Falcons offense make London an intriguing selection. You will have to use a premium pick on him, but there are definitely scenarios where that pick works out nicely.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.