Diamondbacks vs. Phillies National League Championship Series Preview

The MLB playoffs have been an unbelievable ride with three wild-card teams advancing to the championship series. The National League Championship Series (NLCS) features a matchup that few saw coming between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies.

The Diamondbacks took down the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-game series sweep, and the Phillies beat the Atlanta Braves, 3-1, in the NLDS. The NL has been flipped completely upside down, as the Dodgers and Braves were the clear favorites to win the pennant ahead of the postseason.

Arizona has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season after finishing 74-88 in 2022. The D-backs have continued to excel as an underdog in October and are chasing their second World Series win in franchise history.

Philadelphia is looking to advance to their second consecutive World Series. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, the Phillies are favored to win the NLCS (-166). Philly's postseason experience certainly aids their chances, and they are riding high after an epic series win against Atlanta. Nick Castellanos made history, becoming the first player to hit multiple home runs in back-to-back playoff games.

Both teams come into the NLCS red-hot; the Diamondbacks are 5-0 in the playoffs while the Phillies are 5-1. Who will reign supreme and advance to the World Series? Here's everything you need to know, including the latest lines and advanced stats.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies NL Championship Series Odds: Moneyline, Totals Games, and Correct Score

Series Moneyline:

• Phillies: -166
• Diamondbacks: +140

Total Games:

• 4 (+590)
• 5 (+285)
• 6 (+205)
• 7 (+205)

Correct Score:

• Phillies 4-0 (+920)
• Phillies 4-1 (+520)
• Phillies 4-2 (+390)
• Phillies 4-3 (+410)
• Diamondbacks 4-0 (+1400)
• Diamondbacks 4-1 (+820)
• Diamondbacks 4-2 (+590)
• Diamondbacks 4-3 (+590)

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Diamondbacks (84-78/2nd in NL West):

• nERD: -0.08 (22nd)
• Run Differential: +4 (14th)
• Home Record: 43-38
• Away Record: 41-40
• Offensive Stats:
  • HRs: 166 (22nd)
  • wOBA: .317 (17th)
  • SLG: .408 (17th)
  • BB%: 8.8% (14th)
  • K%: 20.4% (4th-best)
• Pitching Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.31 (19th)
  • xFIP: 4.36(19th)
  • BB%: 8.6% (14th-worst)
  • K%: 22.1% (9th-worst)

Phillies (90-72/2nd in NL East):

• nERD: 1.15 (4th)
• Run Differential: +102 (9th)
• Home Record: 49-32
• Away Record: 41-40
• Offensive Stats:
  • HRs: 220 (8th)
  • wOBA: .329 (6th)
  • SLG: .438 (5th)
  • BB%: 8.7% (16th)
  • K%: 23.9% (11th-worst)
• Pitching Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.99 (6th)
  • xFIP: 4.02 (5th)
  • BB%: 7.7% (6th-best)
  • K%: 23.9% (7th-best)

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies NL Championship Series Analysis

The advanced stats suggest that the Phillies have an overwhelming advantage in this series. The Diamondbacks have the longest odds to win the World Series (+480) among the remaining teams while Philadelphia has the second-shortest odds to win the Commissioner's Trophy (+200), per FanDuel's MLB World Series odds.

numberFire's nERD-based power rankings also suggest a major gap between the two teams; Arizona ranks 22nd in the ratings, compared to Philly's standing of fourth. The list of advantages in stats goes on and on. For example, the Phillies are 6th in weighted on-base average (wOBA) while the D-backs are 19th in skill-interactive earned run average (SIERA).

However, nearly all of this has gone out of the window in the playoffs. Arizona was in the same situation against the Dodgers, the second-best team in numberFire's nERD rankings. Yet, the Diamondbacks rolled to a series sweep.

Arizona is a team no one wants to see right now. The bats are mashing, and they have yet to allow more than three runs in a playoff game. The D-backs have won every postseason game as an underdog while going 5-0 against run lines.

So how has Arizona engineered this surprising run? The answer has been home runs. They have 13 dingers in the playoffs, which is tied with the Phillies for the best mark in the postseason. Of course, the D-backs' record-setting four-homer inning vaulted them to their Game 3 win against Los Angeles. We could be in store for a home run derby in the NLCS. What a treat that would be.

The Diamondbacks are producing at a higher rate with 2.6 long balls per game, compared to Philly at 2.2 homers per game. This could be strength against strength, though. Arizona's pitching has surrendered only two homers through five playoff games, and the Phillies have allowed just three big flies in six postseason games.

Steals could be another key in the NLCS. Of course, this has been a strength for the D-backs for the entire 2023 season; they rank second in stolen bases per game (1.04). That has carried over to the postseason, as they are averaging 1.4 stolen bags per contest. Philadelphia has actually been more aggressive on the base paths, as they lead all playoff teams with nine stolen bases.

The stars for both squads have shined when it has mattered most. Arizona's Corbin Carroll is batting .412 in the playoffs, and the Phillies' Trea Turner is hitting a blistering .500. Philly has the upper hand in star power. Nick Castellanos has posted 7 hits and 4 homers over his previous three games, and Bryce Harper recorded 6 hits in 13 at-bats against the Braves (.462).

The NLCS has the potential to be a fun series with both teams white-hot in nearly every category. The starting pitching matchups are also promising. For Game 1, the D-backs are expected to start Zac Gallen while Zack Wheeler will likely take the bump for the Phillies. Game 2 has another exciting matchup in store with Merrill Kelly and Aaron Nola likely facing off.

Arizona and Philadelphia collide for Game 1 on Monday at 8:07 PM EST. According to FanDuel's MLB odds, the Phillies are -158 moneyline favorites for Game 1, and the total sits at 7.5.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.