Derrick Henry Still Reigns as a Fantasy Football King

Few players ever achieve the heights that Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry has achieved. Even fewer reach those heights multiple times. Henry has broken 1,000 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns in each of the past 5 seasons and is set to do it again in 2023.

In most recent years, you could look at those early projections for Henry and assume he would be one of the top-drafted players in fantasy football. In 2023, he’s going towards the back of the second round of fantasy drafts according to FantasyPros’ early consensus average draft position (ADP) rankings with an ADP of 21.3.

King Henry could be a league-winner if his value stays in that Round 2 or Round 3 range by the time most fantasy drafts roll around this August and September.

Derrick Henry Fantasy Football Projection

Projections are via numberFire.

2023 Fantasy Points: 244.5 (286.3 in 2022)
2023 Positional Ranking: RB12
2023 Projected Stats:

• 333.3 carries
• 1,538.3 rushing yards
• 10.1 rushing touchdowns
• 32.5 targets
• 23.6 receptions
• 186.9 receiving yards
• 0.9 receiving touchdowns

Derrick Henry Fantasy Football Outlook

He’s the King for a Reason

You don’t exactly earn a moniker like “King Henry” for doing nothing. Henry is a virtual household name for fans of the NFL for his consistent top-notch production since entering the league.

His Heisman Award-winning 2015 season at Alabama was the stuff of legends – 395 rushes for 2,219 yards and 28 touchdowns – and earned him second-round draft capital during the 2015 NFL Draft. After spending his first two seasons learning behind DeMarco Murray, Henry became the team’s lead back in 2018 before truly ascending in 2019. He’s been on top of the game since then with at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage in each season.

That includes his injury-shortened 2021 season, during which he rushed for 937 yards and 10 touchdowns in just 8 games (his work in the passing game helped him crest 1,000 yards from scrimmage that year). If it weren’t for the broken foot bone that truncated that season, we could be talking about Henry as the only player in NFL history to post multiple 2,000-rushing-yard seasons.

Even in a down year, Henry still maintained his status as one of the league’s premiere rushers. A year removed from his foot injury and while playing on the first losing Titans team in Mike Vrabel’s tenure as the head coach, Henry still compiled 349 carries for 1,538 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, finishing second in the league in rushing yards and touchdowns.

A Surprising Candidate for Regression

The Titans were in an uncharacteristically bad way during the 2022 season, leading to some rushing-adverse game scripts throughout the season. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill was able to put together a surprisingly decent (though mostly unproductive) season as a passer in his first season without A.J. Brown, his WR1 from the past several years, but absorbed sacks at an unsustainable 9.2% clip –- the fourth-highest rate in the league. Tannehill only played in 12 of the Titans’ games due to repeated ankle injuries, and without him keeping the passing game afloat, the team only mustered a single win –- over the lowly Houston Texans.

You would usually expect a running back’s production to completely crater when the rest of their offense crumbles around them, but that wasn’t exactly the case for Henry last year. Instead, he put the whole team on his back during their games without Tannehill. It didn’t result in many wins (just the one we mentioned above), but it did result in top-notch production for fantasy football. In the four games Henry played without Tannehill under center, he averaged 25.5 carries, 142.25 yards, and 1.25 touchdowns per game – a pace that casually would have put him well over 2,000 rushing yards in a 17-game season.

The Titans’ willingness to completely turn the offense over to their game-breaking running back almost puts Henry in a league of his own for fantasy football purposes. He’s not game script-proof in the same way that backs like Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler are; they can salvage a tough day on the ground by catching a number of passes. But he is game script-proof in that when all else fails for the Titans, they know they can turn to him to lead their offense. He offers a safer floor and arguably just as high of a ceiling as running backs being drafted ahead of him with similar ground-game-first profiles, such as Jonathan Taylor (RB5) and Nick Chubb (RB6).

A Potential League Winner

Last season, the first round of most fantasy drafts was mostly populated by running backs. Only Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, and Ja'Marr Chase broke up what would have otherwise been an RB-only first round. Henry himself was frequently drafted near the top of the first round -- even in half-point-per-reception scoring leagues.

Things have changed in the fantasy landscape heading into the 2023 season, and the rise of wide receivers has pushed Henry all the way to the back of the second round in many midsummer drafts. It’s hard to express just how much upside Henry has for any fantasy managers that can draft him that late.

As we mentioned earlier, Henry is an excellent arbitrage pick over running backs like Chubb and Taylor who get drafted almost a full round ahead of him. Unlike those two backs – who are by no means slouches themselves, we must say – Henry has already entered the Hall of Fame with a 2,000-yard season. In the two seasons since that legendary campaign, he’s had multiple bursts of production that show he’s still capable of reaching those heights again. Henry going in the late-second round opens up some truly absurd combinations for savvy drafters. Consider the following scenario you could find in a typical 12-team snake draft:

With elite options at each of the three biggest positions in fantasy football and similar projected production from the RB1 slot, the Henry team looks like it has a pretty distinct advantage over the teams that take Taylor and Chubb in the first round. If his ADP holds steady in the mid-twenties, this analyst expects a number of league-winning fantasy teams to have Derrick Henry as their top running back.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.